IAEE 2019 Ljubljana Scenarios for Decarbonizing an Integrated European Energy System - First Results From a Top-down-bottom- up Modelling Approach IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 1 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
OSMOSE WP 1: Optimal Mix of Flexibilities Definition A power system’s ability to cope with variability and uncertainty in demand and generation Reaction time Energy quantity short-term medium-term long-term flexibility flexibility flexibility Forecast errors Forecasts Fundamentals • Increasing the shares of variable renewables will also increase the need for flexibility • Electrification of the heat and mobility sector provides new sources for flexibility IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 2 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Scenario assumptions (preliminary) Neglected climate Current goals Accelerated action transformation • • • Both the 2030 and Goals currently set on a More ambitious goals Emission levels 2050 target are European level are are set and achieved 2030 and 2050 • missed by 5% and achieved 55% in 2030 • • 10% 40% until 2030 98% for 2050 • • 35% until 2030 80% reduction by • 70% until 2050 2050 • • • Slight overall increase Constant final demand Moderate efficiency Final energy for electricity and high gains in electricity and demand temperature heat high temperature heat (excluding • • demand for low demand for low transport sector) temperature heat temperature heat decreases by 20% decreases by 25% • • • Coal phase-out until Coal phase-out until Coal phase-out until Technologies 2045 2040 2035 IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 3 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Applied model framework Input assumptions yearly emission limits final demand for heat, mobility and electricity technology and cost data for renewable and conventional technologies GENeSYS-MOD cost efficient pathways to 2050 in 5-year-steps for the energy system capacities and consumption remaining potentials • • CHP, heat pumps and electric boilers emissions • • electro mobility Biomass • methaniation and electrolysis dynELMOD cost efficient pathways to 2050 in 10-year-steps for the power system capacities generation transmission IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 4 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Spatial resolution of applied models Source: E-Highways (2014) IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 5 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Energy flow, Europe 2030 Accelerated transformation IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 6 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Final electricity demand TWh 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Neglected climate Current goals transformation Neglected climate Current goals transformation Neglected climate Current goals transformation Accelerated Accelerated Accelerated action action action 2015 2030 2050 Original power Electric vehicles Heat pumps Heating high Other mobility Other low heat Power-to-X → rising levels of electrification and gains in efficiency offset each other IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 7 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Demand profiles for Germany, Accelerated transformation GW 120 90 60 30 0 01/01 01/04 01/07 01/10 2020 2050 → electrification greatly increases the volatility of load IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 8 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Installed flexibility technologies GW 540 360 180 0 Neglected climate Current goals transformation Neglected climate Current goals transformation Neglected climate Current goals transformation Accelerated Accelerated Accelerated action action action 2030 2040 2050 DSM from heat pumps DSM from electric vehicles Lithium ion battery Electrolysis + Methanation IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 9 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Conclusion Key findings • Electricity demand from the heat and mobility sector create an additional demand for flexibility, but also provide additional medium-term (and short-term) flexibility Methodological shortcomings • Only temporal resolution of power system model is sufficient to model the need for long- term flexibility → limits options to provide this flexibility • Reduced foresight in the power system model causes sunk investments Research outlook • Further integrate modelling of sectors, but maintain sufficient level of temporal detail • Identify cross-sectoral synergies in the provision of flexibility (e.g. decentralized seasonal heat storage) → develop new modelling tools and apply advanced solution methods IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 10 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Thank You for Your Attention! Leonard Göke Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (TU Berlin) Email: lgo@wip.tu-berlin.de IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 11 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Utilisation of scenarios in the OSMOSE modelling process Input data Scenarios GENeSYS-MOD dynELMOD heat, mobility and power sector only investment power sector stylized dispatch including storage , dispatch DSM, ramping etc. 17 regions and 16 time 99 regions and up to resolution intervals 8.760 time intervals Plausibility check IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 12 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Installed renewable capacities GW 2400 1800 1200 600 0 Current goals Current goals Current goals Current goals Neglected climate transformation Neglected climate transformation Neglected climate transformation Neglected climate transformation Accelerated Accelerated Accelerated Accelerated action action action action 2020 2030 2040 2050 Photovoltaic, open space Polar, rooftop Wind, onshore Wind, offshore Biomass Biomass CCS IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 13 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Gas use in the power sector TWh 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 14 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Overview of included technolgies short-term medium-term long-term flexibility flexibility flexibility Thermal power plants Interconnection Pumped Demand Side Management Storage Lithium Ion Flywheel Electrolysis Battery Redox Flow AA-CAES Methanation Battery share of renewables IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 15 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
Frage: Angebot und Nachfrage Flexibilität durch Sektorkopplung, Synergien? Grafiken: Lastprofil DE -> mehr Vola, mehr SL, mehr saisonale Speicherung Energy flow diagram -> flexxen Energy flow diagramm IAEE 2019 Ljubljana - 16 - TU Berlin, Fachgebiet Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturpolitik (WIP) 25.08.2019
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