SAN PABLO AVENUE COMMERCIAL DISTRICT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WORK SESSION, DECEMBER 13, 2016
AGENDA Study Area and Methodology Historic Context Demographic Composition Urban Form Commercial Nodes Business and Employment Statistics Real Estate Trends Community Assets and Initiatives Challenges & Opportunities 2 Q&A
STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY 3 Image source: ESRI Business Analyst. The highlighted region represents the area within a quarter mile of the five nodes on the San Pablo commercial corridor.
STUDY AREA AND METHODOLOGY Literature Review Data Sources Demographics: Census Bureau, ESRI Business Analyst Businesses & Employment: EDD, MuniServices, OED Stakeholder Interviews City Staff Focus Group 4 Note: The San Pablo commercial corridor business data presented is limited to San Pablo Avenue addresses in Berkeley.
HISTORIC CONTEXT Berthelsen Motorcycle Garage at 2032 San Pablo, c1915. Sign at University and San Pablo. Photo: Berkeley Historical Society Photo: Digital Public Library of America 5 Former Rivoli Theater at University and San Pablo. Key Route Tracks, San Pablo at University. Photo: Quirky Berkeley Photo: Berkeley Architectural Heritage Association
PAST PLANS AND INITIATIVES West Berkeley Plan (1993) Goals for San Pablo included fostering neighborhood retail development while protecting manufacturing businesses; improved transit connections; and improving environmental quality San Pablo Revitalization Program (1998) Façade improvement grants Enforcement of city codes on blighted sites; development of vacant and underutilized sites San Pablo Public Improvement Plan (2003) Identified community concerns about San Pablo Avenue conditions Focused on pedestrian appeal, safety, and accessibility Resulted in creation of unofficial design guidelines for the corridor, still in use “Plan Bay Area” (MTC/ABAG) (2013) 6 San Pablo Avenue is designated as a Priority Development Area (PDA); future housing growth and transit resources will be targeted for San Pablo
DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION
SAN PABLO AREA DEMOGRAPHICS T otal population: 14,708 (12.7% of Berkeley’s population) 7,180 Housing Units (14.6% of Berkeley housing stock) Renters: 42.6% Homeowners: 57.4% Median income: $66,151 Median income citywide: $65,283 Unemployment Rate: 7.13% Workforce Participation (age 16+): 69.3% 8 Source: US Census Bureau. Median income estimates reflect weighted average of median incomes for eight Census tracts bordering San Pablo Ave, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 Rolling Sample. All other figures are for the area highlighted on the map on Slide 2, accessed via ESRI Business Analyst.
RESIDENTS BY AGE GROUP , SAN PABLO AVENUE-ADJACENT TRACTS AND CITY OF BERKELEY, 2010-2014 ESTIMATES 35% 30% Percent of Population 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% < 5 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-65 65+ Age Group 9 San Pablo Ave City of Berkeley
RACIAL/ETHNIC COMPOSITION, SAN PABLO-ADJACENT CENSUS TRACTS Weighted average of all 49.6% 15.7% 16.8% 12.6% 5.2% White tracts North (Albany Border) 64.4% 4.6% 7.8% 17.6% 5.6% Census Tract 4219 Hispanic/Latino 51.7% 21.8% 8.9% 12.4% 5.3% Census Tract 4221 62.1% 11.0% 6.1% 15.1% 5.7% Census Tract 4222 Black 54.8% 7.2% 11.4% 19.0% 7.6% Census Tract 4231 38.5% 35.9% 13.9% 6.1% 5.7% Census Tract 4232 Asian 54.6% 17.6% 17.8% 6.5% 3.4% Census Tract 4220 33.2% 17.9% 34.1% 11.0% 3.8% Census Tract 4233 Bi/Multiracial, Native American, 32.7% 20.5% 38.1% 5.5% 3.3% Census Tract 4240.02 Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, or Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% South (Oakland Border) 10 Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 Rolling Sample
CHANGE IN POPULATION, RACIAL GROUPS, AND INCOME, SAN PABLO-ADJACENT CENSUS TRACTS, 2000-2014 40% 36.3% 30% 17.3% 20% 10% 4.6% 0% San Pablo Corridor Total Whites (Population) Non-Whites (Population) Income (Population) -10% -20% -30% -27.3% 11 -40% Note: Income is in 2014 Dollars. Source: American Community Survey (ACS) Estimates 2010-2014; 2000 Census
URBAN FORM
URBAN FORM Left: Auto- Top: Biker Oriented Uses crosses at San at San Pablo Pablo and and Virginia Virginia (facing (facing northwest) southwest) 13
URBAN FORM Above: Intersection of San Pablo and Ashby, facing southwest Right: Shops near the intersection of San Pablo and 14 Dwight, a pedestrian-friendly retail/restaurant segment
URBAN FORM 15 Historic Heinz Building, San Pablo and Ashby
URBAN FORM Left: Curb cuts into parking lots interrupt the pedestrian environment Top: Parking lots entrances on NE side of University and San Pablo 16
COMMERCIAL NODES San Pablo Avenue Gilman an Cedar ar Un Univer ersi sity ty Dwight ight 17 Ashby
GILMAN AND SAN PABLO Note: Parking lots are highly visible from node. Image Source: Google Maps 18
CEDAR AND SAN PABLO Aerial image Source: Google Maps 19
UNIVERSITY AND SAN PABLO Note: large number and coverage of surface parking lots. Image Source: (left and above) Google Maps 20
DWIGHT AND SAN PABLO 21
ASHBY AND SAN PABLO 22 Note: Surface parking fully obscured from street. Image Source: Google Maps
BUSINESS AND EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS
GROUND FLOOR COMMERCIAL VACANCY RATE (BY SQUARE FOOTAGE), 2008-2016 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 7.9% 7.3% 6.6% 6.0% 3.0% 5.9% 5.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 24 Source: Vacancy Database, Office of Economic Development, City of Berkeley
GROUND FLOOR COMMERCIAL OCCUPANCY BY CATEGORY, BY SQUARE FOOTAGE, Q3 2016 100% Vacant 7.5% 5.9% 90% 7% Trade Services 21% 80% Retail 70% 40% Public and Nonprofit 60% Entities 30% Personal Services 50% Office / Other Non-Retail 6% 40% 10% Food & Beverage Services 14% 30% 19% Business / Professional 20% 13% Services 10% Arts, Entertainment & 8% Recreation 25 0% Citywide San Pablo
SALES TAX PERFORMANCE OVER TIME, SAN PABLO AND CITYWIDE, 2007-2016 Sales Tax Revenue, % Change Since 2007 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Berkeley San Pablo 26 Source: MuniServices, OED Analysis
SALES TAX REVENUE BY CATEGORY, SAN PABLO AND CITYWIDE, 2015 Q2 – 2016 Q1 100% 90% BUSINESS TO BUSINESS 80% CONSTRUCTION 70% 60% MISCELLANEOUS 50% FOOD PRODUCTS 40% 30% GENERAL RETAIL 20% TRANSPORTATION 10% 0% 27 Berkeley San Pablo Source: MuniServices, OED Analysis
BUSINESS CLUSTERS: AUTO-ORIENTED BUSINESSES 28
BUSINESS CLUSTERS: HOME FURNISHINGS 29
ANNUAL SALES TAX PERFORMANCE OVER TIME, HOME IMPROVEMENT AND AUTO-ORIENTED BUSINESS CLUSTERS, 2007-2016 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Home Improvement Auto-Oriented 30 Source: MuniServices, OED Analysis
WAGES AND AVERAGE EMPLOYMENT, BUSINESSES WITH SAN PABLO ADDRESSES, 2011 Q4-2015 Q4 2,250 $40,000,000 2,200 $35,000,000 Average number of employees 2,150 $30,000,000 2,100 $25,000,000 Q4 average 2,050 employment 2,000 $20,000,000 Q4 Wages 1,950 $15,000,000 1,900 $10,000,000 1,850 $5,000,000 1,800 1,750 $- 31 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), Bureau of Labor Statistics
REAL ESTATE TRENDS
WEST BERKELEY MEDIAN SALES PRICE OVER TIME, SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES, 2010 Q1-2016 Q3 $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 Median Sales Price $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Single-Family Home 33 Note: Figures are for homes west of Sacramento Street in Berkeley. The yearly medians represent the average values of the median figures for each quarter. Source: Red Oak Realty, Multiple Listing Service (MLS Data), October 2016.
SAN PABLO AVENUE-ADJACENT HOUSING PROJECTS, RECENTLY CONSTRUCTED AND IN DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE Source: City of Berkeley Office of Economic Development 34
KEY TAKEAWAYS
COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES San Pablo sits at intersection of production and commerce; on- site production helps drive retail Thriving Arts Community Business Groups Archana Horsting, Executive Director of the Kala Institute Concentrations of ethnic grocers, retailers, and restaurants Pending pedestrian and transportation investments 36 Christina Rybczynski and Lawrence Grown, Metro Lighting, West Berkeley Design Loop
COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES: PRODUCTION AND COMMERCE Home furnishings manufacturing Artisanal production Berkeley Potters’ Studio On-site production at Metro Lighting 37
COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES: THRIVING ARTS COMMUNITY Installations from Kala Art Institute’s Print Public Initiative 38 Source: 2008 Field Survey, Civic Arts Commission, Office of Economic Development
COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES: BUSINESS GROUPS 39
COMMUNITY ASSETS AND INITIATIVES: ETHNIC GROCERS, RETAILERS, AND RESTAURANTS 40 Mural at Mi Tierra Foods; Manager Ambrocio Gaumenkitzel Chef and owner Anja Hernandez (right), Photo: Berkeleyside Voth. Photo: Suzanna Mannion
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