RETHINKING THE FUTURE OF SPACES POST THE GREAT LOCKDOWN 22 APRIL 2020
The Catalyst • Coronavirus, or COVID-19, is a pandemic that is affecting every country in the world. • Unlike SARS, MERS and Ebola, COVID-19 is deemed highly contagious (like the flu) and has a higher mortality rate than the annual influenza. • The infection rate per person is R0 > 1 meaning every infected person on average infects more than 1 person so infection numbers keep rising. • The speed of infection is stressing all healthcare systems as most countries have a limited number of ICU beds and ventilators. • WHO have asked everyone globally to help “flatten the curve”. Flattening the curve means to slow down the infection rate to not exhaust healthcare capacity. When healthcare capacity is exhausted, it may lead to higher mortality rates.
STRATEGIES IN APPROACHING THIS PANDEMIC
THE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES IN APPROACHING THIS PANDEMIC Cities and States have responded differently in approaching this pandemic: DO NOTHING MITIGATION BLANKET ADAPTIVE SUPPRESSION SUPPRESSION
• Little or no social distancing rules put in place. STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION • Allow the virus to run its course. • Hope society develops herd immunity by allowing some 60% of the DO NOTHING population to be infected. • The UK initially adopted this stance before belatedly imposing a lockdown on 23 March in response to there being over 8,000 confirmed cases and over 400 deaths. • As at 22 April, the UK records 255 deaths/1m population. United Kingdom
• Leaders counsel the populace to take reasonable precautions, such as practice STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION social distancing. • Most businesses remain open. Mass transit is still available, trains and buses MITIGATION operate as usual. • No travel bans. City and country borders remain open. • Such mitigation does not significantly hamper the economy. Life continues close to business as usual. • Hope society develops herd immunity by allowing some 60% of the population to be infected. • Sweden adopts this stance. As at 22 April, Sweden records 175 deaths/1m population. Sweden
• Maximum effort in curbing human gatherings and movements. • Physical distancing enforced rigorously. STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION • People are not allowed out except for buying necessities. BLANKET SUPPRESSION • Most businesses are closed, except for essential services, e.g. supermarkets, healthcare and logistics. • Curfews are introduced as necessary. • Physical distancing practised in buses and trains, controlling the number of people allowed inside. • Travel bans. City and country borders are closed. • New Zealand and Malaysia adopted this stance early. As at 22 April, New Zealand and Malaysia record 3 deaths/1M population. Malaysia New Zealand
• Suppression adapting to the levels of infection rate. When/where there STRATEGY IMPLEMENTATION are reductions in number of infected persons, government eases restrictions. • Businesses are allowed to operate whenever/wherever infection rates reduce. ADAPTIVE SUPPRESSION • Domestic travel bans applied and lifted as necessary. International travel could still be banned. • This method aims to slow down the infection rate and reduce the stress on healthcare systems. • Hong Kong and Singapore adopted this stance post blanket suppression. As at 22 April, Hong Kong records 0.5 deaths/1M population, and Singapore 2 deaths/ 1M population. Singapore Hong Kong
“Place has been the driving focus of human activity for centuries. Now, your place is at home.”
HOW HAVE THE COVID-19 SUPRESSION STRATEGIES AFFECTED CITIES? Cities are the central points of capital and creativity, designed to be occupied collectively. Pandemics prey • Possible decrease in demand for traditional meeting spaces on our desire for social interaction. Our and private offices. Rise in demand for flexible spaces. primary response thus far, i.e. physical • Shifts to remote work environments - the rise of remote work distancing , not only runs contrary to our also increases demand for new digital platforms and fundamental desire to interact, but also functions. • Virtual communication and communities. Intensification of contrary to the way we have built digital infrastructure in our cities. our cities and plazas, subways and • Decreased demand for, and efficiency of, public transport. buildings. They were designed to be • Tourism related industries have suffered immense losses, occupied and animated collectively. and may potentially shut tourism assets or make them redundant, e.g. hotels, aquariums, museums, convention centers, clubs. . • Tension between densification and disaggregation. • Empty public places/spaces. Street life has come to a halt.
HOW COULD THESE AFFECT SPACES POST “THE GREAT LOCKDOWN” Image source :<a href="https://www.freepik.com/free-photos-vectors/design">Design vector created by freepik - www.freepik.com</a>
“Work has been transformed from a place of action to an outcome of actions.”
NEW NORMS POST THE GREAT LOCKDOWN
With most countries taking measures to help flatten the curve by going into lockdown and adopting high levels of physical distancing, most public spaces have been left empty and vacant. Post lockdown, new isolation induced practices will become the new norm as we shift to "adaptive suppression" which may last until between 2022 and 2025 (Kissler, et.al, Science 14 Apr 2020, DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5793) Anticipated new norms are: Health Screenings, Physical Distancing, Travel Digital Interactions, Hygiene Practices Limited Gatherings Restrictions Local Experiences
THESE NEW NORMS TRANSLATE TO SHIFTS IN THE USE OF SPACES 01 HYGIENE NORMS 02 SPACING OUT 03 DE-DENSIFICATION HYPER-LOCALISM 04 RISE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY & DESIGN 05
01 ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS HYGIENE NORMS • Handshakes may become a thing of the past. We could borrow new ways of greeting each other, such as bowing and "namaste." • Hand sanitiser stations in public spaces, e.g. shopping malls, petrol stations, markets, will become ubiquitous. • Temperature scanners at the entrances to public places and offices. • Reduced utilisation of public spaces, in particular, enclosed spaces such as shopping malls, stadiums, event halls, and public transport. • Potential deployment of UV light ray machines in confined, high density public spaces.
02 ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS SPACING OUT • People may not be inclined to share spaces as much. This could throw a focus on a wide range of design solutions stressing space flexibility, sustainability, and hygiene. • New rules and legislation may come into play demanding measures to avoid contamination and infection. • A focus on design solutions that enable people to socialise without being packed "sardine-like" . • Engineering solutions, e.g. physical barriers may serve to help stem close contacts. • Limited number of people allowed in public spaces like malls, markets, event halls, cinemas and places of worship. • Reduced number of riders in public transit carriages. • Reduced number of staff members in offices, with a significant proportion working from home.
03 ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS DE-DENSIFICATION • Proximity to one’s place of work may no longer be a significant factor in deciding where to live, and vice versa. Source : https://www.dotmagazine.online/issues/connecting-the-world-whats-it-worth/Information-and-Energy/Digital-Infras • Increased vacancies of city centre office and tructure-Key-to-Economic-Development commercial spaces, hotel buildings and conference venues. • Renewed interest in commercial and residential properties in the suburbs. • Alteration of traditional commuter belts. • Intensification of digital infrastructure in cities, including suburbs.
04 ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS HYPER-LOCALISM • Hyper-localism as a way to support local economies. • Growth in wellness experiences and localised weekend family focused holidays in new destinations accessible by car. • Rise in urban farming and consumption of local produce. • Rise in neighbourhood businesses and business nodes for locally made products, fresh produce and household needs.
05 ADAPTING TO THE SHIFTS RISE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY AND DESIGN • Retail adopting no-cash policy, leading to a growth in credit and debit cards, POS systems. • Mainstream usage of online video conferences. Growth in small conferences (e.g. for up to 100 pax), digital conference businesses. • Local businesses prepped with e-commerce platforms. • Remote work becoming mainstream, even for non-tech roles. • Growth in online delivery services for non-perishables. • Doorknobs, entrance tags, and thumbprint may become a thing of the past as a means of access, to be replaced with sensors, facial recognition and retina scans. Smartphones to call for a lift/elevator. • With travel restrictions in place, people could experience travelling through virtual reality.
POTENTIAL FUTURES
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