RESIDENTIAL SAVINGS FORECAST November 16, 2016
OVERVIEW ► Sources and relative contributions of 2016-2018 Residential Sector savings ► Why are the PAs losing the ability to claim residential lighting savings? ► Expected savings reductions over the next 3-5 years ► Potential solutions to maintaining high level of savings in 2019-2021 ► Where are we now, and is it time to consider a change? www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 2
LIGHTING IS THE DOMINANT SOURCE OF RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC SAVINGS 2013 ‐ 2015 Report 2016 ‐ 2018 Plan Annual Savings (MWh) Annual Savings (MWh) 9% 8% 47% 24% 22% 56% 14% 20% Lifetime Savings (MWh) Lifetime Savings (MWh) 14% 15% 3% 3% 15% 23% 59% 68%
NUMEROUS MEASURES CONTRIBUTE REMAINING LIFETIME ELECTRIC SAVINGS 2018 Lifetime “ Everything Else” Savings (MWh) 2018 Lifetime Savings (MWh) New 16% Construction Appliances 15% Hot Water 22% 8% HVAC Equipment Envelope 18% 29% HVAC Controls 8% www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 4
RESIDENTIAL & LOW INCOME LIGHTING IS CRITICAL TO MEETING PA SAVINGS GOALS Portfolio Savings 120% 100% 6% 7% % of Total Savings (MWh) 13% 14% 22% 80% 29% 27% 31% 60% 40% 72% 64% 60% 55% 20% 0% 2013 ‐ 2015 2016 ‐ 2018 2013 ‐ 2015 2016 ‐ 2018 Annual Savings Lifetime Savings C&I Residential and LI Lighting Residential and LI Non ‐ Lighting www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 5
GAS SAVINGS ARE DISTRIBUTED WIDELY ACROSS END USES & ACTIVITIES 2018 Lifetime Gas Savings* Water Behavior Heating 4% 6% Residential New Envelope Construction 32% 17% HVAC Controls HVAC 18% Equipment 23% *Savings from National Grid, and Eversource. Savings do not include retail lighting interactive effects. www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 6
MOST RESIDENTIAL LIFETIME OIL SAVINGS ARE FROM ENVELOPE AND HVAC CONTROLS 2018 Lifetime Oil Savings* Residential New Construction/ Behavior/ Process 1% HVAC Controls 21% HVAC Equipment 9% Envelope 66% Water Heating 3% *Savings from National Grid, Eversource, and CLC. Savings do not include retail lighting interactive effects. www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 7
THE PAs’ ABILITY TO CLAIM RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING SAVINGS IS GOING AWAY ► Most of current in-place residential lighting is already efficient − 51% in 2016 − 12% LED saturation ► Rapid commercialization of LED technology − 94% price decrease from 2008-2015 − Exponential growth in sales www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 8
THE PAs’ ABILITY TO CLAIM RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING SAVINGS IS GOING AWAY (CONT.) Federal standards impacts in 2020 EISA 2020 “Backstop” Standard Proposed 2020 Federal CFL and LED Standard • Federal law that set 2012 ‐ 2014 minimum lamp efficiency standards • More stringent than EISA backstop: will likely ban CFLs • 1/1/2020: Requires CFL or better level of efficiency if DOE does not complete its • DOE has proposed a greatly expanded own rulemaking definition of GSL • Applies mostly to general service lamps • Standard would cover most common (GSL), i.e., screw ‐ in A ‐ lamps residential applications, e.g., reflector lamps • Sales prohibition • Manufacturing and importation ban www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 9
EISA COVERED LAMPS < 5 inches ~40 – 100 Watt Equivalent (We ) 51% of Sockets in MA homes www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 10
EISA EXEMPT LAMPS OR NOT COVERED BY EISA 49% of Sockets in MA Homes • 25% EISA Exempt • 16% Directional • 7% Linear fluorescent www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 11
THE PRECISE TIMING OF REDUCED RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING SAVINGS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ► CFL & LED ► Order in which standard and EISA backstop and general service CFL & LED lamp definition become effective must be finalized ► Election adds ► Some direct install additional opportunities may uncertainty remain ► Retail lighting largely transformed by 2019 or 2020? www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 12
WE EXPECT OTHER SOURCES OF SAVINGS TO DIMINISH OR GO AWAY OVER NEXT 3-5 YEARS AS WELL Relative Source Electric Gas Oil Lifetime Notes Savings Impact Gross savings will diminish as vintage of Appliance x M removed units becomes newer and more recycling efficient Lower NTG will affect per unit savings, Wireless though unit numbers are likely to x x x S ‐ M thermostats increase significantly. (Net positive impact) Programmable Unit numbers will likely decrease in favor x x x S ‐ M thermostats of wireless thermostats Federal Clothes washers in 2018. Gas furnaces in Standards x x x S ‐ M 2021 (proposed) upgrades Declining savings over time w/ current Behavior x x S model from reduced savings per home and participant attrition www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 13
ADDITIONAL SAVINGS OPPORTUNITIES Relative Lifetime Source Electric Gas Oil Notes Savings Impact Significantly increased market penetration, Wireless x x x M ‐ H greater product availability, and ability to thermostats control connected appliances Connected Control by wireless thermostats (and Appliances, x x x S ‐ M possibly HEMS). Possibly significant DR Lighting, HVAC opportunities and DHW Unclear how much incremental savings Home Energy available beyond those from wireless Management x x x S ‐ M (?) thermostats. Still some Systems (HEMS) market/technology confusion Revised Stretch Impacts new construction savings claims; x x x S ‐ M Code mostly fossil fuels Cold Climate Most potential savings opportunities are x S Heat Pumps from fuel switching/displacement Improved Better boiler installation practices; Installation x x x M improved heat pump controls integration Practices www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 14
ADDITIONAL SAVINGS OPPORTUNITIES (CONT.) Relative Lifetime Source Electric Gas Oil Notes Savings Impact Duct sealing, HPWH, upstream Increasing current HVAC, DHW, appliances and measure x x x M ‐ H electronics (ENERGY STAR RPP), penetrations Tier 2 power strips All PAs offer to all appropriate customers; integration w/wireless Behavior x x [x] S ‐ M thermostats and/or HEMS. Larger impact on annual savings Increased program participation: Multiple ongoing program x x x M Moderate income & activities renter segments Greater depth of Pay for performance models; x x x M savings increase conversions Large per participant savings, Zero Energy though achieving high x x x S ‐ M Buildings participation is a challenge. New construction and retrofit www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 15
ADDITIONAL SAVINGS OPPORTUNITIES FUEL SUBSTITUTION ► Current regulations and guidelines do not explicitly address fuel substitution − No policy imperative for PAs to pursue ► Draft regulations (Residential Conservation Services) may provide opportunities to encourage certain fuel substitution − Approval has been delayed, but expected shortly ► If fuel substitution incentives are permitted, what would program activities look like? − Oil to gas vs. oil to electric? − Gas to electric? www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 16
ADDITIONAL SAVINGS OPPORTUNITIES STRATEGIC ELECTRIFICATION ► Consistent with Massachusetts’ climate goals ► Pursuing this strategy would include increased promotion of: − Heat pump water heaters − Cold climate ducted and ductless heat pumps − Net zero energy existing and new home activities • Opportunity for renewables (and storage?) integration ► How would changes in fuel use be tracked and reported? ► Should multi-fuel PA savings goals be developed? www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 17
SAVINGS FORECAST SUMMARY Estimated Lifetime Savings in 2021 Relative to 2018 Consultants’ Fuel Estimate of Net Key Drivers Savings Impact Electric ‐ 45% to ‐ 75% ‐ Lighting: Some uncertainty as to details and timing ‐ Other, much smaller impacts from multiple measures/activities + Potentially wide range of uptake from upstream efforts + Success in displacing electric heat and hot water with heat pump technologies Gas +10% to +25% ‐ No single measure or activity expected to have a large impact + Increased participation in whole house efforts, and greater products unit quantities ‐ Negligible Oil +5% to +20% + Similar to gas, but fewer equipment efficiency www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 18 opportunities
ROLLING IT ALL UP: WHERE ARE WE NOW? ► By many metrics, the Res retrofit programs are not only successful, but nation-leading (scale, $’s invested, years of continuous service – legacy…) − Res 1-4 retrofit programs impact 2.5 million retail transactions and 140,000 in home services annually − Current run rates (2013-2015): • 85,000 HES participants annually • 54,000 HVAC • 2.4 million retail lighting • 94,000 consumer products − And we spend $213 Million to do it − Within the constraints of a Total Resource Cost Test www.ma-eeac.org Residential Savings Forecast | 19
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