Residential Evaluation Strategic Planning Feb 6, 2013
Agenda Introduction to Objectives Review of Evaluation work • “What We’ve Done” Introduction of Researchable Questions Breakout Groups • Brainstorming Sessions Large Group Discussion • Prioritizing Ideas Next Steps and Voting 2
Meeting Rules Active participation is encouraged. Please speak freely and bring any and all ideas to the table. Raise Hand to speak in group discussions. No sidebar conversations. Silence cell phones. No interrupting others. 3
Meeting Objectives
Developing a Landscape
Flow of the day What We’ve Done • An Introduction to work done in the research area, followed by introduction to unanswered questions Breakout Groups are a brainstorming session • Build off of Contractor’s presentation of unanswered questions • Refine questions provided and develop other questions • Speed Dating Round • 30 Minutes with the Primary Group, 20 Minutes rotating Large Group Discussion • Discuss final list and assess importance to researchable questions.
Residential Riley Hasting (Eversource Energy)
Savings by Sector Lifetime Electric Savings (MWh) Lifetime Gas Savings (Therms) Commercial & Residential Industrial 23% 38% Low-Income 3% Residential 50% Commercial & Industrial Low-Income 74% 12% Gas Benefits Electric Benefits Commercial & Industrial 30% Residential 38% Commercial & Residential Industrial 53% 57% Low-Income Low-Income 17% 5%
Electric by Initiative Annual Electric Savings Electric Benefits Lifetime Electric Savings (MWh) (MWh) Products, 100% 100% 100% Products, Products, 2% 4% 4% 90% 90% 90% Lighting/ Lighting, Products 24% 80% 80% 80% Lighting/ Lighting, Products CS, 2% Lighting/ CoolSmart 46% 70% LI MF, 3% 70% Products 70% Lighting, 54% LI SF, 8% 60% 60% 60% Behavior, 1% 50% 50% 50% CoolSmart CS, 3% LI MF, 4% LI SF, 3% 40% 40% 40% CoolSmart CS, 5% Whole House LI MF, 5% HES, 52% Behavior, 30% 30% 30% 20% LI SF, 4% Whole Behavior, House 3% 20% 20% 20% Whole House HES, 14% HES, 13% 10% 10% 10% MF, 6% MF, 3% MF, 5% RNC, 4% RNC, 3% RNC, 2% 0% 0% 0%
Gas by Initiative Annual Gas Savings Lifetime Gas Savings Gas Benefits (Therms) (Therms) 100% 100% 100% Heating & Heating & Water Water 90% 90% 90% HEHE Heating & HEHE Heating, Heating, Water HEHE 21% 21% Heating, 28% 80% 80% 80% Home 70% 70% 70% Energy Services, Home 23% Energy 60% 60% 60% Services, Home 35% Energy MF, 2% Services, 34% 50% 50% 50% RNC, 3% Whole Whole 40% 40% 40% MF, 6% House House Whole MF, 4% House RNC, Behavior, 30% 30% 30% 11% RNC, 33% 11% Behavior, 1% Behavior, 20% 20% 20% 3% LI MF, 14% LI MF, 12% 10% 10% 10% LI MF, 4% LI SF, LI SF, 8% 10% LI SF, 2% 0% 0% 0%
Residential Organization 3 Evaluation Research Areas: Residential, Commercial & Industrial, Special & Cross-Sector Studies Residential research areas will be divided into three categories today: Products • Lighting and Appliances (NMR) Whole Heating and House Cooling • HES, New Con, • CoolSmart and Multifamily HEHE (Cadmus) (Navigant) Residential Research Residential Studies: This research area was divided by program delivery method. Whole House typically has a direct install delivery strategy. Products is generally an upstream delivery strategy. Heating and Cooling is typically is delivered through influencing contractor and distributor prevailing practices. We recognize that there can be overlap between all three areas. 11
Massachusetts Residential Evaluation Planning Summit February 6, 2015
Three Residential Elements 1. Whole House/Direct Install/New Construction – Home Energy Services – Low Income (Single Family and Multifamily) – Multifamily – New Construction 2/24/2015 13
Three Residential Elements 2. HEHE and Cool Smart – Boilers – Furnaces – Ductless Mini-split HPs – CAC/HPs 2/24/2015 14
Three Residential Elements 3. Lighting and Products – Market Characterization – Saturation Trends – EISA Impact – Hard-to-Reach – Appliances and Other Products 2/24/2015 15
Home Energy Services
Research to Date Study Completion Date Key Data Collection Elements Program Delivery and HEAT April 2015* Interviews with participants and Loan Assessment contractor Realization Rate Assessment June 2013 Billing and engineering analysis, simulation modeling Pre-Weatherization Initiative April 2013 Interviews with participants and stakeholders; review of tracking data Packaged Measure Initiative June 2012 Review of tracking data Net-to-Gross June 2012 Interviews with participants and contractor, discrete choice modeling Impact Evaluation August 2012 Billing and engineering analysis, simulation modeling *In progress. 2/24/2015 17
What did we learn? • LV and HPCs overestimate per-measure gross savings. • Cross-participation rates between HES, Cool Smart, and HEHE were lower than anticipated. • Participants install measures that capture, on average, 44% of identified audit savings. • HPCs trail behind LVs with respect to HEAT loan and cross- participation and installing HES heating/water heating systems. • The program causes insulation contractors to improve practices at nonparticipating sites (spillover). 2/24/2015 18
Remaining Research Questions • Can program design changes encourage deeper savings, greater measure adoption, and cross-participation? • Does the current realization rate adjustment to ex ante savings remain appropriate? • Does similar insulation SO occur as part of the MF program? • Are the current NTG assumptions still appropriate? • What opportunities exist for home automation savings? • What about the current DI CFL NTG (73%) post-EISA? 2/24/2015 19
Low Income (SF and MF)
Research to Date Study Completion Date Key Data Collection Elements LIMF Impact Analysis June 2014* Billing analysis, metering common area lighting, and algorithm review Secondary Heating June 2014* Billing analysis Assessment* Lighting HOU and May 2014 Metering Secondary Heating Impact Evaluation August 2012 Billing and engineering analysis, simulation modeling Process Evaluation August 2012 Interviews with agencies, PAs, field staff, and participants Measure Assessment December 2011 Engineering analysis *In progress. 2/24/2015 21
What did we learn? • Significant weatherization savings (29% of SF heating usage); greater than HES (263 vs. 149 therms). • Opportunities exist for standardizing savings estimates across CAPs and PAs as well as the QA/QC process. • LI customers use their lights similarly to non-LI customers. • Weatherization likely reduces LI customers’ need to use supplementary electric space heaters. • Minimizing the points of contact (for MF) may increase participation. • Completing a billing analysis requires information not captured electronically. 2/24/2015 22
Remaining Research Questions • Have measure savings estimates been appropriately standardized? • Does the program maximize lighting savings? • Which LIMF measures require MF-specific savings or assumptions? 2/24/2015 23
Multifamily
Research to Date Study Completion Key Data Collection Elements Date Multifamily Impact Evaluation June 2015* Billing analysis Multifamily Process Evaluation February 2015* Interviews with stakeholders and contractors; customer focus groups, in-depth interviews and phone surveys; literature review; on-site visits; and data review Multifamily Program Impact Analysis July 2012 Data review; savings algorithm review Multifamily Process Evaluation June 2012 Stakeholder interviews; literature review; participant and nonparticipant focus groups and phone surveys; and data review Multifamily Market Characterization & May 2012 Stakeholder workshops and on-sites visits Potential Study Residential New Construction 4-8 April 2012 Stakeholder and participant interviews Story Multifamily Pilot *In progress. 25
What did we learn? • A single point of contact would improve the customer participation process. • Program tracking is insufficient for “linking” multifamily properties across fuels and programs (e.g., C&I and Residential). • The current audit process leaves room for missed and lost opportunities. 2/24/2015 26
Remaining Research Questions • Beyond expanding the MMI, what options are available for creating a single point of contact? • Is it feasible to create a link between C&I and Residential multifamily customer data? 2/24/2015 27
CoolSmart and HEHE
Research to Date Study Completion Date Key Data Collection Elements Ductless Heat Pump December 2015* Collected to date: Additional baseline Metering information from participant interviews HEHE Impact Evaluation February 2015* High efficiency boiler/furnace metering, spot measurements of baseline equipment, billing data disaggregation Furnace Baseline December 2014 Review of market data, previous MA Assessment research Ductless Heat Pump September 2014 Participant understanding of DMSHP Survey installation, motivations, and perceptions of program involvement NTG Study June 2013 Surveys with participants, contractors, distributors *In progress 2/24/2015 29
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