Reproduction of storms over the North Sea and the Baltic with the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Reproduction of storms over the North Sea and the Baltic with the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 Natacha Fery 1 , Birger Tinz 1 and Lydia Gates 1 1 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Background Data Methods First results Summary EXTREMENESS  „ EXTREME North sEa Storm Surges and their consequences “  EXTREMENESS aims at identifying extreme events that are highly unlikely but still physically possible and plausible and which may cause LKN, Schleswig-Holstein extreme damages or have extreme consequences (so called „ black swans “)  Analysis of wind fields inducing storm surges in atmospheric data [EXTREMENESS-B] https://www.hzg.de/ms/extremeness/index.php.de https://www.hzg.de/ms/extremeness/index.php.de ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 1/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Regional atmospheric reanalysis COSMO-REA6 COSMO-REA6 1995-2015 1 h 0.055° FF, DD, PS Regional Bollmeyer et al. 6x6 km EURO-Cordex (2012) domain 2D and 3D  Product of the Deutscher Wetterdienst and the University of Bonn  Results of previous validation work with COSMO-REA6:  Inter-comparison of COSMO-REA6 and global reanalyses (ERA20C, ERA-Interim) near-surface wind fields: higher correlations found with COSMO-REA6 over land (Kaiser-Weiss et al., 2015)  COSMO-REA6 mean wind fields close to the measurements and to global atmospheric reanalyses ERA20C and ERA-Interim between 10 and 116 m height (Borsche et al., 2016)  Here, focus on storms in the North and Baltic Seas ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 2/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Atmospheric observations – FINO123  Description FINO1 [North Sea] 2004-2015 10 min FINO2 [Baltic Sea] 2007-2015 10 min FINO3 [North Sea] 2009-2015 10 min ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 3/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Atmospheric observations – FINO123  Mast corrections for wind speeds Example: FINO1 during storm Xaver (12.2013) 0 ° 270 ° 90 ° 180 ° -- FINO1 142 ° -- FINO2 180 ° -- FINO3 105 ° ,225 ° ,345 ° ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 4/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Winter storms over the North and the Baltic Seas Kyrill 01.2007 Tilo 11.2007 Christian 10.2013 Xaver 12.2013 Britta 11.2006 Source: DWD  Different types of storms are considered  Analysis of wind speed, wind direction and pressure at mean sea level  Several heights are considered at the FINO platforms (10 m and 100 m)  Research questions: (1) How does COSMO-REA6 perform against observations during those storms? (2) What is the added value of regional reanalysis on global reanalysis during strong wind events? ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 5/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Validation against independent observations  Example for the wind speed [FF] at 10 m and 100 m at FINO1 FF [m/s] FF [m/s] 11.2006 FF [m/s] 10.2013 FF [m/s] 01.2007 12.2013 11.2007 ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 6/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses 20CRv2c 20CRv2c 20CRv2c 1851-2016 1851-2016 1851-2016 6 h 6 h 6 h 2° 2° 2° FF10M, DD, FF10M, DD, FF10M, DD, Gobal, NOAA Gobal, NOAA Gobal, NOAA Compo et al. (2011) Compo et al. (2011) Compo et al. (2011) PMSL PMSL PMSL 56 ensembles 56 ensembles 56 ensembles ERA-Interim ERA-Interim 1979-today 1979-today 6 h 6 h 0.75° 0.75° FF10M, DD, FF10M, DD, Global, ECMWF Global, ECMWF Dee et al. (2011) Dee et al. (2011) PMSL PMSL ERA5 2008-2017 1 h 0.25° FF10M, DD, Global, ECMWF Copernicus Climate PMSL 10 ensembles Change Service Information (2018) ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 7/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses  October 2013 (Christian) ERA5 ERAInterim COSMO-REA6 20CRv2c Wind speed [m/s] Mean sea level pressure [hPa] ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 8/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses  December 2013 (Xaver) ERA5 ERAInterim COSMO-REA6 20CRv2c Wind speed [m/s] Mean sea level pressure [hPa] ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 9/12

Background Data Methods First results Summary Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses 10.2013 - Christian FINO 1 3 2 1 FINO 2 FINO 3 ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Background Data Methods First results Summary Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses 10.2013 - Christian FINO 1 FINO 2 FINO 3 ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Background Data Methods First results Summary Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses 10.2013 - Xaver FINO 1 3 2 1 FINO 2 FINO 3 ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Background Data Methods First results Summary Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses 10.2013 - Xaver FINO 1 3 2 1 FINO 2 FINO 3 ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Background Data Methods First results Summary Summary  Use of raw and mast corrected wind and pressure observations at different heights for validation of the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 over sea  Proven effect of the mast on the observations for given wind directions  COSMO-REA6 could reproduce well 5 historical storms in North and Baltic Seas  The regional reanalysis performs better than the global reanalyses  Global reanalyses capture well only the large scaled and long lasting storms  The new high resolution global reanalysis ERA5 is still not able to reproduce strong and short lasting storms ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de 12/12

Thank you for your attention Picture B. Tinz (22.10.2014) ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

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