Rental Market Overview November 2019 Historical Vacancy Rate Trend - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Rental Market Overview November 2019

Historical Vacancy Rate Trend National Average Rental Vacancy Rate Average Rental Vacancy Rate in 4 Largest Markets 1990 to 2018 2008 to 2018 8.0% 6.0% Toronto 7.0% Vancouver 5.0% 6.0% Montreal 4.0% Calgary 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.4% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC

National Immigration Targets Federal Immigration Targets Economic Immigrant Target Shares Canada: 2014 to 2021 Canada: 2014 to 2021 360,000 350,000 70.0% 341,000 330,800 340,000 65.0% 320,000 310,000 300,000 300,000 60.0% 300,000 281,000 55.0% 280,000 261,000 260,000 50.0% 240,000 45.0% 220,000 40.0% 200,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Toronto CMA Population Flows Components of Population Growth Share of Total Canada Immigration Toronto CMA: 2007 to 2018 Toronto CMA: 2007 to 2018 Net Intra-provincial Migration Net Immigration 40% Net Inter-provincial migration 100,000 38% Net Non-permanent Residents 90,593 34% 36% 80,000 34% 60,000 32% 42,679 40,000 30% 20,000 28% 9,374 0 26% -20,000 24% 22% -40,000 -49,758 20% -60,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada

Young Adult Population Growth & Homeownership Homeownership Rates Annual Population Growth Aged 20-34 Toronto CMA: 2007 to 2018 Toronto CMA: 1991 to 2016 60,000 4.5% 46.0% Population Increase (persons) 4.0% 44.0% 50,000 Under Age 35 Population Growth (%) 3.5% 42.0% 40,000 3.0% 40.0% 2.5% 30,000 38.0% 38.9% 2.0% 36.0% 20,000 1.5% 34.0% 1.0% 10,000 0.5% 32.0% 0 0.0% 30.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada

Per Capita Housing Sales & Price/Income Growth Annual MLS Sales as a % of the Population aged 25+ Average MLS Houisng Price and Renter Household Income Greater Toronto Area: 2006 to 2018 Greater Toronto Area: 2006 to 2018 (2006 =100) 260 2.6% 2.5% Avg. MLS Price 240 2.4% 220 Avg. Renter Household Income $788,000 Avg. = 2.0% 2.2% 200 180 2.0% 160 1.8% 140 $70,000 1.7% 120 $352,000 1.6% 100 $52,000 1.4% 80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board

Ownership Affordability Calculations Mortgage Payment for Average MLS Price as % of Renter Mortgage Payment for Average MLS Price Household Income Greater Toronto Area: 2006 to 2018 Greater Toronto Area: 2006 to 2018 $3,789 $4,000 70.0% 64.3% $3,500 65.0% $3,000 60.0% $2,500 55.0% $2,000 50.0% $1,500 45.0% $1,000 40.0% $500 37.5% 35.0% $0 30.0% *Assumes 20% down pay ment, 25-y ear amortization, 5-y ear f ixed mortgage rates *Assumes 20% down pay ment, 25-y ear amortization, 5-y ear f ixed mortgage rates Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board, CMHC

Net Rental Supply Growth & Renter HH Formation Annual Net Change in Rental Apartment Stock Average Annual Net Renter Household Formation Toronto CMA: 2008 to 2018 Toronto CMA: 1991 to 2016 16,000 14,556 20,000 16,894 13,838 Purpose-built Rental Stock Increase 13,158 14,000 15,000 Condominium Rental Stock Increase 12,000 9,389 8,786 10,000 10,000 9,538 8,000 7,215 5,000 6,000 0 4,000 -5,000 -3,502 -3,432 2,000 -10,000 0 91-96 96-01 01-06 06-11 11-16 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC Source: Urbanation Inc., Statistics Canada

Average Condominium Rents & Annual Growth Average Condominium Rents PSF Annual Growth in Average Condominium Rents PSF GTA: 2011 to 2019, Q3 periods GTA: 2011 to 2019, Q3 periods $3.60 12.0% $3.44 $3.40 ($2,481) 10.0% 10.0% 9.1% $3.20 8.0% $3.00 5.8% $2.80 6.0% $2.60 4.0% $2.40 2.0% $2.20 $2.00 0.0% Q3-11 Q3-12 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q3-16 Q3-17 Q3-18 Q3-19 Q3-11 Q3-12 Q3-13 Q3-14 Q3-15 Q3-16 Q3-17 Q3-18 Q3-19 Source: Urbanation Inc. Source: Urbanation Inc.

New Purpose-built Absorptions & Rents PSF Absorption and Index Rents for 2019 Purpose-built Completions GTA-Hamilton: Q3-2019 Absorbed Units 400 West22 eCentral at 350 The Selby ePlace 300 250 Kings Club The Taunton Parkside 200 The Square Montgomery 150 Niagara 100 Village Creek West Living 50 (Hamilton) 0 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 Current Rent PSF Source: Urbanation Inc.

Condo & Rental Construction Apartment Units Under Construction Rental Share of Total Apartment Starts Greater Toronto Area: Q1-14 to Q3-19 Toronto CMA: 1998 to 2018 100.0% 80,000 Condominium Apartments 90.0% 71,957 70,000 80.0% Purpose-built Rentals 60,000 70.0% 50,000 60.0% 50.0% 40,000 40.0% 30,000 30.0% 20,000 20.0% 11,413 10,000 10.0% 0 0.0% Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC Source: Urbanation Inc

Purpose-built Rental Proposals Inventory of Proposed Purpose-built Rentals (Units) Inflow of New Purpose-built Rental Proposals (Units) GTA: 2015 to 2019, Q3 periods GTA: Q1-2016 to Q3-2019, 4-Quarter Rolling Total for New Applications 60,000 Rent Control 52,839 Rent Control 20,000 Removal for Extension to 18,000 New Buildings 50,000 New Buildings 16,000 14,000 40,000 12,000 30,000 10,000 8,000 20,000 6,000 4,000 10,000 2,000 0 0 Q3-2015 Q3-2016 Q3-2017 Q3-2018 Q3-2019 Source: Urbanation Inc. Source: Urbanation Inc.