TORONTO CMA CONDOMINIUM APARTMENT MARKET OVERVIEW ���������������������
Toronto’s Condominium Apartment Rental Market Remains Strong • 49% Quarterly Increase in Activity on MLS in Q2-2012. • Index Rents up 3.5% Annually to $2.26 psf in the Toronto • Index Rents up 3.5% Annually to $2.26 psf in the Toronto CMA overall. • Lease-to-Listings Ratio of 78% - Extremely Strong Demand. • Average Suite took 19 Days to Lease in the Second Quarter, compared to 24 in Q1-2012.
Toronto CMA Rental Markets Condominium Rental Purpose-Built Rental Market Apartments 1,259 Projects 223,000 Units 307,000 Units Estimated rental – 25% 56,000 64% larger rents 64% larger rents $1,777 per month avg $1,777 per month avg $1,086 per month avg 786 sf $2.26 psf 3,000 - 4,000 rental transactions on MLS per Quarter Source: UrbanRental, Toronto Real Estate Board, CMHC
Approximately 14,000 Condo Rental Transactions through MLS in 2011, 7,500 in First Half of 2012 Figure 2 Condominium Rental Transactions and Index Rent by Quarter Toronto CMA : Q2-2011 to Q2-2012 6,000 $2.30 $2.26 $2.24 $2.23 $2.25 $2.21 $2.18 $2.20 4,500 transactions 4,500 transactions 4,000 $2.15 in Q2-12 - up 49% $2.10 quarterly and 18% $2.05 annually. 2,000 $2.00 $1.95 3,750 4,378 2,902 2,984 4,439 0 $1.90 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 ��������������������������������������������������
Demand for Condo Rental Units is Very Strong with 78% Lease-to-Listings Ratio, Not Translating into Big Increase in Index Rents Figure 3 Annual Index Rent Appreciation and Lease-to-Listings Ratio by Quarter Toronto CMA : Q2-2011 to Q2-2012 8% 90% 79.4% 77.5% 80% 7% 66.3% 64.8% 63.4% 70% 6% 6% 60% 60% 50% 5% 40% 4% 30% 20% 3% 10% 5.5% 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 3.5% 2% 0% Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Annual Appreciation LLR ��������������������������������������������������
Annual Index Rent Growth is Typically Lower than Appreciation in New and Resale Markets Annual Index Price and Index Rent Growth in New, Resale & Rental Condominum Apartment Markets Toronto CMA : Q2-11, Q1-12 & Q2-12 9.0% 8.0% 8.1% 7.0% 7.5% 7.2% 7.2% 6.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.0% 5.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.7% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% Q2-2011 Q1-2012 Q2-2012 New Resale Rental ��������������������������������������������������
Monthly Carrying Costs for Average New and Resale Condominiums Versus Average Condo Rents – 20% Down, 1% Taxes, Average monthly maintenance, 3% Interest rate Monthly Carrying Costs per Month for Average New & Resale Unit Q2-2012 plus Average Condominium Rental Rates by Quarter Toronto CMA: 2011 to 2012 YTD $2,000 New: 751 sf, $1,932 $1,950 $395,000, $395,000, $1,900 $1,900 $0.49 psf $1,850 $1,814 $1,865 $1,800 $1,750 $1,765 $1,777 Resale: 910 sf, $1,700 $370,000, $1,650 $1,686 $1,600 $0.58 psf ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� Rental: 786 sf New Resale Rental �������������������������������� �����������������
Monthly Carrying Costs for Constant Sized New, Resale and Rental Condominiums – 20% Down, 1% Taxes, Average monthly maintenance, 3% Interest rate Monthly Carring Costs per Month for an 800 sf New & Resale Unit plus Q2-2012 Average Rent for 800 sf Condominium Apartment by Quarter Toronto CMA: 2011 to 2012 YTD 800 sf $2,100 $1,985 $2,000 New: $525 psf, New: $525 psf, $1,900 $1,900 $1,825 $1,825 $1,808 $420,000, $0.49 psf $1,800 $1,699 $1,685 $1,700 Resale: $407 psf, $1,600 $1,607 $326,000, $0.58 psf $1,500 ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� Rental: $2.26 psf New Resale Rental �������������������������������� �����������������
Plenty of Supply to Enter Rental Condominium Market over Next Two Years • Approximately 50,000 completions scheduled for 2013 and 2014. • Up to 50% of these suites could enter the rental pool, or 25,000 units. 25,000 units. • This would represent a 45% increase in the condominium rental market in the CMA – from 56,000 to 81,000. • Can all these units be absorbed? If rents are not going up significantly when in with short supply, what will occur with excess supply?
For information about Urbanation’s Condominium Market Survey, UrbanRental Report or our Consulting Services please contact: Ben Myers 416-922-2200 ext.243 416-922-2200 ext.243 Ben@urbanation.ca www.urbanation.ca www.twitter.com/urbanation
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