National Conference on “ Post Paris Climate Action” India’s INDC: Technological Options, Renewables and Challenge of Balancing 12 July 2016, New Delhi Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe) 1
T echnology Options Model • Minimizes discounted total energy system cost • The Model balances every hour demand and supply • Issues addressed • What would be the structure of power sector • Role of renewables and balancing power • Time horizon: 2012 to 2047
Model Scenarios INDC targets of 175 GW and 40% Non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 reaching 55% by 2047 Maximum Potential: Solar 748 GW & Wind 302 GW Balancing by Hydro, Renewables with Storage, Open Cycle Gas and / or Coal Flexibility Electricity Demand: 3217 BU in 2032 8496 BU in 2047
Key Insights from Model Outcomes
Capacity Mix Share Scenario 1: Coal High Flexibility (55% to 85%) Scenario 2: Coal Medium Flexibility (60% to 70%) Unconstraint Run for Renewable Capacity Addition Except for 175 GW by 2022 2032 2047 SC-1 SC-2 SC-1 SC-2 T otal Capacity Req. 828 951 2069 2086 Fossil Share % 34% 30% 36% 37% Non Fossil Share % 66% 70% 64% 63% Renewable Share % 52% 57% 53% 52% 2042 SC-1 SC-2 2032 SC-1 SC-2 Coal Share: 10% 8% Coal share: 29% 21% Gas Share: 26% 29% Gas share: 5% 10% Wind share: 16% 15% Wind share: 28% 25% Solar share: 36% 36% Solar share: 22% 30%
Capacity Requirements Unconstraint Run for Renewable Capacity Addition Except for 175 GW by 2022 2032 2047 800 749 749 T otal SC-1 SC-2 SC-1 SC-2 700 Capacity Req. 828 951 2069 2086 608 600 543 500 GW 400 322 322 300 243 237 229 211 195 189 163 200 93 79 100 39 0 SC-1 SC-2 SC-1 SC-2 2032 2047 Coal Gas Solar wt stg Wind • Increase in Gas Cap. Req. in 2032 by 137% and 2047 by 12% • By 2047, full use of Solar and Wind Potential
Scenario 1: Coal High Flexibility (55% to 85%) T ypical One Day Generation in January 2032 (GWh) 450 Diesel 400 Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage 350 Solar Th Stg Solar Thermal Gas OC Solar PV with Storage Wind On 300 Solar PV Solar PV Hydro 250 Wind Off Shore GWh Wind On Shore Coal Sub C. 200 Hydro Coal - Subcritical 150 Coal- Super Critical Coal SC Coal- Ultra Super Critical 100 Small Hydro Power Coal USC 50 Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear 0 Nuclear-LWR JAN H01 JAN H02 JAN H03 JAN H04 JAN H05 JAN H06 JAN H07 JAN H08 JAN H09 JAN H10 JAN H11 JAN H12 JAN H13 JAN H14 JAN H15 JAN H16 JAN H17 JAN H18 JAN H19 JAN H20 JAN H21 JAN H22 JAN H23 JAN H24 Nuclear-PHWR Hour
Scenario 2: Coal Med. Flexibility (60% to 70%) T ypical One Day Generation in January 2032 (GWh) 450 Diesel 400 Gas- Open Cycle Solar Thermal With Storage 350 Solar Thermal 300 Solar PV with Storage Gas OC Solar Th Stg Solar PV 250 Wind Off Shore GWh Solar PV Wind On Shore 200 Hydro Wind On Hydro Coal - Subcritical 150 Coal- Super Critical Coal Sub C. Coal- Ultra Super Critical 100 Small Hydro Power Coal SC 50 Gas- Combine Cycle Biopower Nuclear 0 Nuclear-LWR JAN H01 JAN H02 JAN H03 JAN H04 JAN H05 JAN H06 JAN H07 JAN H08 JAN H09 JAN H10 JAN H11 JAN H12 JAN H13 JAN H14 JAN H15 JAN H16 JAN H17 JAN H18 JAN H19 JAN H20 JAN H21 JAN H22 JAN H23 JAN H24 Nuclear-PHWR Hour
Scenario 1: Coal High Flexibility (55% to 85%) T ypical One Day Generation in January 2042 (GWh) 900 800 Diesel Solar PV Gas- Open Cycle 700 Solar PV Gas OC Solar Thermal With Storage 600 Wind On Shore Wind Off Shore 500 Solar Th Stg GWh Hydro 400 Coal - Subcritical Hydro Coal- Super Critical 300 Coal- Ultra Super Critical Wind On Small Hydro Power 200 Coal Sub C. Gas- Combine Cycle Coal SC Biopower 100 Coal USC Nuclear-LWR Nuclear 0 Nuclear-PHWR JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN H01 H03 H05 H07 H09 H11 H13 H15 H17 H19 H21 H23 Hour
Scenario 2: Coal Med. Flexibility (60% to 70%) T ypical One Day Generation in January 2042 (GWh) 900 800 Diesel Gas- Open Cycle 700 Solar PV Solar PV Solar Thermal With Storage 600 Wind On Shore Wind Off Shore 500 Gas OC GWh Solar Th Stg Hydro 400 Coal - Subcritical Wind On Coal- Super Critical 300 Coal- Ultra Super Critical Hydro Small Hydro Power 200 Gas- Combine Cycle Coal Sub C. 100 Coal SC Biopower Nuclear-LWR Nuclear 0 Nuclear-PHWR JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN H01 H03 H05 H07 H09 H11 H13 H15 H17 H19 H21 H23 Hour
Scenario 1: Coal High Flexibility (55% to 85%) Hourly average for each month-Electricity Generation (GWh) - 2042 Solar Th Stg 900 Hydro Gas OC Diesel 800 Gas- Open Cycle Hydro 700 Solar Thermal With Storage 600 Solar PV Wind Off Shore 500 GWh Wind On Shore 400 Coal - Subcritical Wind On Coal- Super Critical 300 Coal- Ultra Super Critical Coal Sub C. 200 Small Hydro Power Gas- Combine Cycle Coal SC 100 Coal USC Biopower Nuclear Nuclear-LWR 0 APR H01 APR H12 APR H23 MAY H10 MAY H21 JUNE H08 JUNE H19 JULY H06 JULY H17 AUG H04 AUG H15 SEPT H02 SEPT H13 SEPT H24 OCT H11 OCT H22 NOV H09 NOV H20 DEC H07 DEC H18 JAN H05 JAN H16 FEB H03 FEB H14 MAR H01 MAR H12 MAR H23 Nuclear-PHWR
Scenario 2: Coal Med. Flexibility (60% to 70%) Hourly average for each month- Electricity Generation (GWh) - 2042 Solar Th Stg 900 Diesel Hydro Gas OC 800 Gas- Open Cycle Hydro 700 Solar Thermal With Storage Solar PV 600 Wind Off Shore 500 Wind On Shore GWh Coal - Subcritical 400 Coal- Super Critical 300 Coal- Ultra Super Critical Wind On Small Hydro Power 200 Gas- Combine Cycle Coal Sub C. 100 Biopower Coal SC Nuclear-LWR Nuclear 0 Nuclear-PHWR APR H01 APR H12 APR H23 MAY H10 MAY H21 JUNE H08 JUNE H19 JULY H06 JULY H17 AUG H04 AUG H15 SEPT H02 SEPT H13 SEPT H24 OCT H11 OCT H22 NOV H09 NOV H20 DEC H07 DEC H18 JAN H05 JAN H16 FEB H03 FEB H14 MAR H01 MAR H12 MAR H23
Key Conclusions T otal capacity req. of 2069-2086 GW for meeting demand by 2047 Renewable share can be as high as 61% but require gas support for balancing High Gas Support will increase overall cost of Generation Solar with storage reaches its full potential and with technological progress higher potential may be harnessed Even with full hydro capacity utilization of 145 GW, other resources are needed for balancing
Key Conclusions Integration of Indian grid with Hydro rich SAARC nation (Nepal and Bhutan) will helps in absorbing higher Renewable Generation If coal capacity addition as planned by in CEA Transmission Perspective Report (2016-36) comes online than with 175 GW renewable underutilization of capacities is expected (unless GDP grows faster) Operating coal with flexibility has higher coal consump. & maintenance cost which needs to be considered
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