Renewable Energy Regulatory Support Project Chaired by Prof. Dr. J. Scott Younger Morrisey Hotel , Jl. K. H. Wahid Hasyim No. 70, Jakarta, 10340
Contents Objectives • • Some Introdutory Facts • Overview of Coal & Renewable Energy Resources • Project Undertakings • Today’s Issues & Ideas for Changes -> Toward New Framework
Canadian Government 0bjective Through strategic engagement and investment to help the economy of Indonesia develop through reducing poverty and increasing sustainable economic growth and expand trade between Indonesia and Canada .
Project Objective To help Indonesia develop it’s considerable renewable energy resources , an area of great interest to Canadian business and in which they wish to engage with Indonesia to help develop local skills with Canadian knowledge and Investment.
Supply and Demand Supply Side • Power Generation • Transmission & Distribution Demand Side • Transportation • Buildings • Urbanisation
Forms of f Ren enewable le or Cle lean Energy Solar Tidal and Current Hydro Biomass Geothermal Biofuel Wind Waste to Energy Nuclear Partial or hybrid solutions Algae for biofuel
What Countrie ies Sh Should ld Be Be Focussin ing On A. Cities : Hot Spots and Pollution Smart designs Better Energy efficiency -> Renewable Solutions Water /Waste ; Modern Technologies and reuse B. Rural : Lack of Supply Renewables Off-grid (smart) solutions Appropriate water/waste designs
In Indonesia`s Demand • 57 GW ( RUPTL ) 2017 Regional demand Increasing 2025 • 100 GW (c.f. 40GW by 2019) 2025 23% Renewables
Overview of Coal and Renewable Energy Resources
Figure 1. The Indonesian archipelago and population distribution
Figure 2. Global population changes over the past century Source: Younger, 2017
ASE SEAN and Renewable Energy • Considerable forward momentum in China, India and Latin America • Little attempt in ASEAN – worst performing region globally in terms of RE deployment and transport sector electrification. ( possible exception Philippines – introducing renewable performance standards which would make a difference , if enforced ). • Some 1.2 bn globally still lack access to electricity <- including an unacceptable number in Indonesia. • In ASEAN <- power generation is expected to double by 2025 while overall energy demand grows by 50%
National and International commitment’s to renewable energy • National – RUPTL 2018 – Renewable energy to amount to 23% of the energy- mix by 2025 ( currently at < 12 % ) – moved to 2027 • International – increase in renewable energy made as part of a package of measures to tackle climate change in Indonesia’s Nationally Determined Contributions ( NDC’s) made at COP 21 in Paris 2015 • Pledge to reduce GHG missions 26% by 2020 against a “business -as- usual” scenario, and 41% if International support / funding granted – none will be achieved .
Table 1. Generated supply, 2011-2017 Realised Electric Sales in Indonesia TWh Sales to 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*) Domestic Users 64.581 71.554 76.579 83.402 87.972 92.886 96.063 Industry 54.232 59.635 63.774 65.295 63.533 67.586 71.822 Business 27.718 30.391 33.831 35.507 36.108 38.963 40.966 5.400 5.889 6.573 6.879 Social 3.959 4.457 4.898 Government Offices & facilities 2.750 3.018 3.220 3.440 3.669 3.969 4.172 Street Lighting 3.049 3.123 3.233 3.375 3.429 3.478 3.628 Total 156.289 172.178 185.535 196.419 200.600 213.455 223.530 2017 Estimate including Tarakan
Figure 3. Electricity consumption/capita in ASEAN countries MWh/capita 10,11 8,84 4,65 2,57 1,44 0,81 0,71 0,27 0,21 BRUNEI SINGAPORE MALAYSIA THAILAND VIETNAM INDONESIA PHILIPPINES CAMBODIA MYANMAR
Coal Resources • See figure 4 - estimated 100+ years of supply • Quality : mostly low ranked ( 2,500 – 3,000 kcal ) to thermal quality ( 4,500 – 5,000 kcal ) • High moisture , low sulphur • Exploitation for power generation from about 1990 • Indonesia world major exporter – mostly regional • Increasing domestic demand for PLN at subsidised price ( US $70/t cap ) – short term
Figure 4. Locations of main coal operations across the archipelago
Coal Resources • Provides about 50% of energy resource for current electricity output • Estimated will still provide about 30 % of mid-century requirement ; hence about same level plus on current output • Export markets demanding only thermal coal or better quality • India is looking into clean coal technology – including for their Indonesian resources • There will be a future for coal – but it will be different
Gas • Cleaner than coal but more limited supply • Supplies available in Indonesia – but not everywhere and ultimately finite quantity ( 20 years ?)
Figure 5. Potential and developed renewable energy resources in Indonesia INDONESIA RE SOURCES Potentail GW Developed GW 207 75 33 29 19 18 1,7 1,4 6 0,8 0,2 0,3 5 0 H Y DRO MINI & MIC RO H Y DRO BIO- RE LA T E D GE OT H E RMA L OC E A N C URRE NT /T IDA L W IND S OLA R
MINI HYDRO Table 2. Potential Capacities across Main Island Groups No Island Potential (MW) Population (m) 1 Sumatra 15,600 66 2 Java 4,200 160 3 Kalimantan 21,600 10 4 Sulawesi 10,200 12 5 Bali, NTB, NTT 620 10 6 Maluku 430 2 7 Papua 22,350 5 Total 75,000 265
Geothermal • Indonesia holds 40% of world known reserves – 29 GW ( See Fig 6 ) • Many locations unsuitable , e.g remote locations, protected forest reserve, sometimes local opposition. • Target for development to date – est 9 GW • Developed to date about 3.2 GW
Figure 6. Locations for geothermal projects
Geothermal • Contract structure until more recently not conducive ( arguably still not to investment ) – developer has high front end cost in exploration. • Field mapping techniques are improving. • Majority of projects connected to “ Ring of Fire “ • PLN thinks it understands Geothermal so now starting to reactivate developer interest.
Bio Bio Crops and Bio Biomass BIOCROPS BIOMASS • Food crops, e.g. Sugar, corn, • Waste from growing of food cassava grown produce ethanol e.g. Rice, coconut palm oil • Fuel output only, e.g jatropha • Potential for expansion • Controversial, competing with • Waste as wood chopping food • Often subsidised, e.g. USA • Indonesian market immature
Bio Biomass Small plants in operation in Indonesia using agricultural waste Suitable for localised rural requirements but dependent on steady supply of waste, e.g rice husk ash, wood chippings, solid waste; sometimes added to coal fired stations
Bio Biofuel Usually derived from CPO Used as partial replacement of diesel – biodiesel Conflict with CPO products for food derivates (Algae)
Waste to Energy A few plants operating in Indonesia, main one for Jakarta ; focus increasing Efficiency depends on composition of waste Requires good percentage of organics to develop methane gas Engineering of landfills needs careful design and operations daily monitoring Plastic waste projects being investigated Can be combined with recycling
Win ind Obviously requires areas where there is adequate wind, like western Europe and Sulawesi. Also wind turbines can only operate in a comparatively narrow range of wind speeds, say above 5 kph and up to 50 kph depending on size ; have to be turned off under fresh to gale conditions ; however new technology is lowering bottom limit and developing horizontal turbines Cannot be considered for base load power Indonesia has some opportunities for wind applications in specific areas . Most wind passes through East Indonesia, especially Sulawesi which would be better served by solar, mini-hydro, biofuel Two 75 MW projects under construction / planned in Sulawesi. Where appropriate can be linked to another form of energy
Ocean Energy • Projects built and being built in Scotland, Canada • First 1MW Projects in East Indonesia Estimated being considered – Resource base : held back by 10-15 GW unsatisfactory regulations • Large project in Lombok starts requires appropriate regulation
Solar Effectively ‘limitless’ supply and in future probably a major contributor to overall global power requirements ( for Indonesia over 200 GW potential ) East Indonesia is one of the sunniest areas of the world A number of private developments there use solar power So far photovoltaic large panel solutions; slowly growing interest in rooftop. Considerable ongoing research to improve battery storage Predicted to become increasingly used in the future / main source by mid- century Up to 1 GW being considered in Indonesia – no progress to date By 2050, estimated that solar, direct and midirect , will provide 40% world output.
Macr cro Sola lar Source : Gridserve Ltd Oxfordshire, England 39 MW installed in 3 month
Source : Gridserve Ltd
1 MW Array Source : Gridserve Ltd
Th The Sola lar Fig igures Source : Gridserve Ltd
Source : Gridserve Ltd
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