RAY Y TR TRACING CING: : TODAY, , TOMORR RROW OW AND ND BEY - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

RAY Y TR TRACING CING: : TODAY, , TOMORR RROW OW AND ND BEY EYOND ND Jon Peddie Research The challenges getting machines to make physically acute pictures Ian Mallett 1

Jon Peddie Research Focus and emphasis on Visualization, Graphics, and forms of reality Consulting and market research - Advisor to industry leaders and investors Bi-weekly report, various Digital Technology Market Studies Product testing and benchmarking Conferences Chasing Pixels, Finding Visual Magic Jon Peddie Research

Introduction Ray tracing is to manufacturing what a storyboard is to film — the ability to visualize the product before it's built. Movies couldn't be made today with the quality they have without ray tracing. The market for ray tracing is entering into a new phase Will review market size, market composition and ways the Jon Peddie Research industry is reducing rendering time and computational loads.

Ray tracing is part of the 3D hierarchy 3D Modelin ling Design it Apply it CAD AEC MCAD M&E Jon Peddie Research Ray Trac acin ing See it engine

Wireframe to Rendering Desig ign n it Apply ply it Jon Peddie Research See it This could be a movie, game, advert, or manufacturing plan

Overall Market Huge Data a Generat atio ion Markets s ($M) $14,000 Si Simul mulation, CA CAGR R (14-20): 6 : 6.7% $12,000 M&E, M& E, CA CAGR R (14-20): 2 : 2.3% MF MFG, CA CAGR R (14-20): 4 : 4.3% $10,000 AEC, EC, CA CAGR R (14-20): 5 : 5.3% $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 Jon Peddie Research $2,000 $0 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Moore’s Law Marches Ray Tracing Forward 2015 Autodesk A360 Cloud Rendering 2014 Google acquires Zync, cloud-based In 2000, 2013 rendering Lagoa introduces Software cloud-based prices tumble renderer for 3D modeling tools RT Ray-Tracer 2007 Jon Peddie Research introduced Nvidia acquires iRay introduced Siggraph 2005 Mental Images 1988 for BRL-CAD 1968 2002 1997 Cebas founded Arthur Appel introduces Ray Renderman Chaos Group 1986 2007 Tracing Algorithm ray tracing founded Mental Images Nvidia releases CUDA introduces V-Ray founded enabling GPU compute

The Big get Bigger 3D Modeli ling ng and Animation mation Market CAD Market et Share Share Jon Peddie Research

Ray tracing software market Ray y traci cing TAM (M units) s) TA TAM, M, CA CAGR R (14-20) 2.6% PAM, M, CAGR R (14-20) 2.4% 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 Jon Peddie Research 0.40 0.20 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jon Peddie Research 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 0 1 2 3 North America Largest for RT SW 1985 1986 1987 1988 1997 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Country 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 USA Spain Bulgaria Canada Germany USA Japan France

Crazy market 80 Ray trac acing ing supplie pliers Co Continuing comp ompanies & softwa ware Acquired & mer merged ed comp ompanies Free ee sof oftwa ware Failed ed or or abandon oned ed comp ompanies es 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 Jon Peddie Research 20 20 10 10 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Consolidation Seems Obvious Consolida olidation tion inevitable table? Jon Peddie Research Acquisitions and mergers already in the works, but its not going to be a blood bath

No Discernable Cause and Effect? 80 Ray y traci cing ng suppliers rs CAGR: : 89% 90 90 8 Ra Ray y tracing s ng suppliers 80 80 7 Introd oduction ons 70 70 6 Li Linea ear (Ra Ray tracing supplier ers) 60 60 5 50 50 4 40 40 3 30 30 2 20 20 Jon Peddie Research 1 10 10 0 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Virtual Prototyping is the Key Try it before you buy it, fly it, fund or build it There is no longer any need to photograph automobiles and airplanes for marketing … . . . Not much else is either Ray tracing saves zillions of dollars by catching mistakes, allowing for changes, and helping analyze collateral issues Jon Peddie Research BUT – it has to be physically perfect, and to do that you have to have a ridiculously large, robust, and compatible materials library

This is not a photograph It’s hybrid rendering If it moves, look at the lights Jon Peddie Research

The Future Some companies have survived on the basis of their breadth of services, supporting all the major tools, several shaders and materials libraries. Material libraries offer an opportunity and a threat. The leading companies are offering material library tools and formats as a way to lock-in their customers. Nvidia hopes to use its leverage with GPUs and marketing power to widely Jon Peddie Research disseminate their materials and tie customers to their libraries (and thus, their hardware).

A shakeup is coming in the rendering market The successful companies will be those who can offer:  Ease of use, including test images and production run progress monitoring  Some guarantee of success  Tweaks that enhance ray tracer performance. In general, physics- based optical fidelity is not as valuable as “looks right.” Jon Peddie Research  Service and support  Broad-based robust materials library

Summary  There is an enormous demand for virtual prototyping  The data analysis is gigantic and can’t be done without the cloud or ray tracing  The images have to be physically accurate, photo- realistic, and made with high-fidelity material Jon Peddie Research properties

Chasing pixels – finding Visual Magic Jon Peddie Research Jon@jonpeddie.com

Epilog Photorealism vs. photorealistic Dürer’s “ A Young Hare” 1502 Margaret Hagen introduced the concept that there are different methods of portraying realism in which certain properties of a scene are accurately represented, and others are approximated, abstracted, or omitted (Varieties of Realism, Cambridge Press, 1986). Thank you Ludwig Jon Peddie Research The point of this idea is that pictures can be realistic in some respects and not in others. For example, Dürer’s “A Young Hare is extremely realistic, but not photo-accurate. However, the iconic Utah teapot is geometrically accurate. Rendering methods can make its rendering photo-accurate but not necessarily realistic.