R eview of c limate adaptation evaluations T imo L eiter Doctor - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

d I 3 r nte r nati onal Confe r e nc e on E val uati ng E nvi r onme nt and De ve l opme nt, 2 Oc tobe r2019, Pr ague R eview of c limate adaptation evaluations T imo L eiter Doctor al r esear cher , Gr antham R esear ch I nstitute on Climate Change and the E nvir onment T .L .L eiter @lse.ac.uk @T imoL e ite r

Ur gency to act on climate impacts Sinc e the 2 nd Int. Confe re nc e on E va lua ting CC & SusDe v: 1.  Pa ris Ag re e me nt  Clima te a c tio n ple dg e s fro m a ll c o untrie s(NDCs)  I nc re a se d le ve ls o f c lima te fina nc e  Hig hte ne d pub lic pre ssure to a c t (in so me c o untrie s) BUT : Pa ris te mpe ra ture g oa ls unlike ly to be a c hie ve d 2. Na tio na l ple dg e s le a d to > 3°C wa rming b y 2100 • (Ca rb o n Ac tio n T ra c ke r, 2018) a rg e fossil fue l inve stme nts & subsidie s a re o ng o ing L • Ra pidly g ro wing me tha ne re le a se s fro m me lting • pe rma fro st  a c c e le ra tio n o f wa rming (Nisb e t e t a l., 2019)  Ne e d to adapt a s fa r a s po ssib le

E valuation of climate adaptation actions Wha t doe s the Pa ris Ag re e me nt sa y? 1. Art.7: Co untrie s “Sha ll, a s a ppro pria te ,” e ng a g e in: • “ Monitoring a nd e va lua ting a nd le a rning fro m a da pta tio n pla ns, po lic ie s, pro g ra mme s a nd a c tio ns” Purpose s of a da pta tion e va lua tions 2. ffic a c y, le a rning a nd a c c ounta bility a s ma in purpo se E • o f a da pta tio n e va lua tio ns ( UNDP, 2004; UNF CCC, 2010) 2 nd Int. Confe re nc e on E va lua ting CC a nd SusDe v: • ne e d to e va lua te a da pta tio n (Uitto e t a l., 2017) “Ada pta tio n inte rve ntio ns sho uld b e ba se d on • e vide nc e of wha t works ” (Pro wse & Snilstve it, 2010) @T imoL e ite r

I mpact evaluations on the r ise – also for adaptation? 2010: “the e vide nc e • base o n the impac t of CC inte r ve ntions is minimal ” (Pro wse & Snilstve it, 2010) 2014: 2 nd I nt • Co nfe re nc e : ve ry fe w a da pta tio n e va lua tio ns 2019: ? • e : Sa b e t, S.M., & Bro wn, A.N. (2018). Is impac t e valuation still on the F igur ise ? T he ne w tre nd s in 2010–2015. Jo urnal o f De ve lo pme nt E ffe c tive ne ss , r 10(3), 291–304.

A systematic r eview of adaptation evaluations Sc ope 1. Pub lishe d in sc ie ntific journa ls • xplic itly re fe rring to a da pta tion to CC E • T ype o f e va lua tio n: „Rig e rous“ impa c t e va lua tions • (White , 2010) E xc luding : e x-a nte , pro c e ss a nd fo rma tive e va lua tio ns • Sourc e s: 2. We b of Sc ie nc e Da ta ba se (33,000 jo urna ls*) • I nte rna tio na l I nitia tive fo r I mpa c t E va lua tio n (3ie ) • Re pository (4,600 e va lua tio ns) Surve y of 10 e xpe rts o n a da pta tio n M&E fro m • inte rna tio na l o rg a nisa tio ns *Re sults a ppa re ntly va ry due to lib ra ry sub sc riptio ns!

A systematic r eview of adaptation evaluations Se a rc h proc e ss: 3. We b of Sc ie nc e : a ll da ta b a se s • T itle : “c lima te ” AND “a da pta tion” AND “e va lua tion” • Sc re e ning o f re le va nc e b a se d o n title & a bstra c t • 3ie re po sito ry: „a da pta tio n“ a s se a rc h te rm • Re sults: 4. We b of Sc ie nc e : 71 unique hits • E x-a nte : 33, pla nning : 8, c lima te impa c ts: 10, o the r: 15 • Re le va nt: 5 o n indic a to rs, b ut 0 e valuations • 3ie re pository: 1 • otal: 4 a da pta tio n impa c t e va lua tio ns T Surve y of 10 e xpe rts: 3 •

A systematic r eview of adaptation evaluations 5. Ide ntifie d e va lua tions: We lde g e b rie l, Z.B., & Pro wse , M. (2013). Clima te - Cha ng e Ada pta tion in E thiopia : T o • ive lihood Dive rsific a tion? De ve lo pme nt Wha t E xte nt Doe s Soc ia l Prote c tion Influe nc e L Po lic y Re vie w , 31(2), 35-56 [PSM] Asfa w, S. e t a l. (2017). Ca sh tra nsfe r prog ra mme s, we a the r shoc ks a nd house hold • we lfa re : e vide nc e from a ra ndomise d e xpe rime nt in Za mbia . Jo urnal o f De ve lo pme nt E ffe c tive ne ss , 9(4), 419-442. [RCT ] Brüsso w, K . e t a l., (2017). Implic a tions of c lima te - sma rt stra te g y a doption by fa rm • a nza nia . F o o d Se c urity , 9(6). [PSM] house holds for food se c urity in T Alpiza r, F . e t a l. (2019). T he impa c ts of a c a pa c ity- building workshop in a ra ndomize d • a da pta tion proje c t . Nature Climate Chang e , 9 , Aug ust 2019. [RCT ] PSM = Pro pe nsity Sc o re Ma tc hing , RCT = Ra ndo mise d Co ntro lle d T ria l @T imoL e ite r

A systematic r eview of adaptation evaluations 5. Ide ntifie d e va lua tion re vie ws: Co nfirm Ara me , T ., e t a l. (2018). Do c lima te se rvic e s ma ke a diffe re nc e ? A • re vie w of e va lua tion me thodolog ie s a nd pra c tic e s to a sse ss the the finding va lue o f c lima te info rma tio n se rvic e s fo r fa rme rs: I mplic a tio ns fo r o f ha rdly Afric a . Climate Se rvic e s , 11, 1-12. a ny impa c t Va ug ha n, C., e t a l. (2019). E e va lua tio ns va lua ting a g ric ultura l we a the r a nd • c lima te se rvic e s in Afric a : E vide nc e , me thods, a nd a le a rning o n a g e nda . Wile y I nte rdisc iplinary Re vie ws Climate Chang e . F irst a da pta tio n pub lishe d o nline : 09 Ma y 2019. Miya g uc hi, T ., & Uitto , J. (2017). Wha t Do E va lua tions T e ll Us About • Clima te Cha ng e Ada pta tion? Me ta - a na lysis with a Re a list Approa c h . I n: Uitto , J., Puri, J., & va n de n Be rg , R. (E ds). E va lua tio n Clima te Cha ng e Ac tio n fo r Susta ina b le De ve lo pme nt. Spring e r. @T imoL e ite r

Possible explanations 1. Ada pta tion is e lusive a nd c omple x T he se e va lua tio n c ha lle ng e s a re “thwa rting the • e ffo rts o f skille d e va lua to rs, o r te mpting informa tion provide rs to de fe r e va lua tion to re ly on more e a sily tra c ke d but le ss me a ning ful me tric s ” (Va ug ha n e t a l., 2019) 2. F e w c omple te d a da pta tion inte rve ntions F irst g e ne ra tio n o f a da pta tio n • pro je c ts/ pro g ra mme s o nly b e c o ming c o mple te d 3. No inc e ntive to publish in journa ls No inc e ntive fo r imple me nte rs/ do no rs to • pub lish in sc ie ntific jo urna ls @T imoL e ite r

Amer. J. Agr. Econ . 100(1). 2018 Do e s no t • me ntio n “ adaptation ” Me ntio ns • “ c limate c hange ” o nly o nc e  L imitation o f the se a rc h a lg o rithm

I mplications F or e va lua tion 1. “this will re q uire (…) a g re a te r foc us on risk, • unc e rta inty a nd c omple xity ; a re inve ntion of proje c t e va lua tion; full use o f the e va lua tio n to o l kit a nd judic io us e va lua tio n g o ve rna nc e a rra ng e me nts” (Pic c io tto , 2009) F or a da pta tion 2. T ra ditio na l pla nning -imple me nta tio n-re vie w c yc le is • to o slo w Ne e d to find more c re a te wa ys to inform a da pta tion • pla nning Do no rs ne e d to pa y mo re a tte ntio n to utility- foc use d • e va lua tion a nd le a rning ! @T imoL e ite r

Adaptation metr ics backgr ound paper  Or ie nting the disc ussion  Wha t a re a da pta tio n me tric s?  Wha t c a n the y b e use d fo r?  Wha t a re the ir limita tio ns?  Wha t c urre nt pra c tic e s e xist in:  Ag ric ulture & fo o d se c urity (F AO)  F ina nc e a nd inve stme nt (E BRD & WB o b o MDBs)  Citie s (GE F )  Re c o mme nda tio ns  Infor ming the de bate to not jump to indic ator s without c onside r ing pur pose & me aning L e ite r, T ., Olho ff, A. e t a l. (2019). Adaptation Me tr ic s: Cur r e nt L andsc ape ac tic e s. Ba c kg ro und pa pe r fo r the Glo b a l Co mmissio n o n and e volving pr Ad a pta tio n. Ac c e ss o n Re se a rc hGa te  T imo L e ite r

T hank you! T .L .L eiter @lse.ac.uk Pub lic a tio ns o n Re se ar c hGate : T imo L e ite r @ T imoL eiter