q2 2014
play

Q2 2014 Earnings Presentation July 29, 2014 Forward-Looking - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Q2 2014 Earnings Presentation July 29, 2014 Forward-Looking Statements and Non-IFRS Financial Information All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted. Financial numbers prior to 2010 were prepared in


  1. Q2 2014 Earnings Presentation July 29, 2014

  2. Forward-Looking Statements and Non-IFRS Financial Information • All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted. • Financial numbers prior to 2010 were prepared in accordance with CGAAP, while numbers from 2010 onward have been prepared in accordance with IFRS. • This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates. • Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information. • Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information. • Additional information can be found in the Company ’ s annual information form, annual MD&A, and on Norbord ’ s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information. • During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company ’ s annual and quarterly MD&A. 2

  3. Q2 2014 Financial and Operational Highlights • OSB prices remained stable, as industry capacity is gradually absorbed • EBITDA of $33 million - up $6 million from Q1 2014 • YTD NA sales volume up 10% year-over-year • YTD EU sales volume up 3% year-over-year − Best-ever quarterly EU panel production • YTD MIP gains of $6 million • Received APA’s 2013 Safest Company Award • Declared CAD $0.60/share dividend payable September 21 (record date September 1) 3

  4. US Housing Starts 1,050,000 927,000 893,000 781,000 610,000 2011 2012 2013 Jun-14 (1) 2014F SAAR June YTD data: housing starts up 6% yr/yr; building permits up 5% (1) Based on US housing economist forecasts 4 Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted

  5. North American Benchmark OSB Prices 400 347 350 313 300 $/Msf- 7/16” North Central 252 245 250 South East 219 219 207 199 192 200 193 150 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Spread SE vs. NC 34 45 53 26 20 Source: Random Lengths 5

  6. European Indicative OSB Prices (1) 280 278 276 275 273 273 270 269 € /m 3 265 260 255 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 (1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest Continental market 6

  7. Financial Summary Q2 Q1 Q2 YTD YTD 2014 2014 2013 2014 2013 (US $ millions, except per share information, unless otherwise noted) Sales $ 311 $ 303 $ 365 $ 614 $ 730 EBITDA North America 24 17 92 41 198 Europe 12 13 12 25 22 Unallocated (3) (3) (2) (6) (7) Total 33 27 102 60 213 Earnings 11 7 53 18 120 EPS, basic 0.21 0.13 1.00 0.34 2.46 EPS, diluted 0.20 0.13 0.99 0.33 2.26 7

  8. EBITDA Variance Q2 2014 Q2 2014 YTD 2014 vs. vs. vs. Q1 2014 Q2 2013 YTD 2013 EBITDA variance (US $ millions) EBITDA – current period $ 33 $ 33 $ 60 EBITDA – comparative period 27 102 213 Variance 6 (69) (153) Mill nets (1) (2) (80) (171) Volume (2) 2 8 14 Key input prices (3) 1 (4) (7) Key input usage (3) 6 3 2 Mill profit share and bonus - 4 8 Maintenance and other (4) (1) - 1 Total 6 (69) (153) 1)The mill nets variance represents the change in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs) divided by shipment volume. 2)The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products. 3)The key inputs include fibre, resin, wax and energy. 4)The maintenance and other category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, and the impact of foreign exchange. 8

  9. Liquidity and Capital Resources Q2 Q1 Q2 YTD YTD 2014 2013 2013 2014 2014 (US $ millions, except per share information, unless otherwise noted) Cash provided by (used for) operating activities $ 20 $ (26) $ 101 $ (6) $ 146 Cash provided by (used for) operating activities per share 0.37 (0.49) 1.91 (0.11) 3.00 Operating working capital 93 86 - 96 - Investment in property, plant and equipment 27 15 18 42 30 9

  10. Balance Sheet Bank Jun 28 Dec 31 Jun 29 Covenant 2014 2013 2013 (US $ millions) Long-term debt, principal value $ 440 $ 440 $ 440 Less: Cash and cash equivalents (83) (193) (220) Net debt 357 247 220 Add: Letters of credit 3 4 3 Net debt for financial covenant purposes 360 251 223 Tangible net worth min. 250 453 492 520 Net debt to capitalization, book basis max. 65% 44% 34% 30% • Liquidity of $425 million = $83 million in cash + $342 million in unused credit lines 10

  11. Appendices 11

  12. OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price 400 350 Annual Average NC Price 300 US$ per Msf 7/16" 15 year average 250 200 150 100 50 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1 217 261 132 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 Q2 291 240 190 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 Q3 301 171 180 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 Q4 230 155 140 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 Average 260 207 160 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 Source: Random Lengths 12

  13. Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16” • Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at July 23, 2014. It is not exhaustive. Annual Average North Central Benchmark OSB Price 2014 2015 2016 US$ per Msf 7/16” CIBC 230 271 - Dundee Capital Markets 220 225 - Raymond James 245 280 - RBC Capital Markets 225 250 275 Salman Partners 230 260 - Scotia Capital 231 293 301 TD Securities 226 265 - Vertical Research Partners 225 290 340 Average $229 $267 $305 13

  14. Additional OSB Capacity Restarting to Meet Additional Demand North American OSB Installed Capacity: 38 Mills in Operation 8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed 6 Mills (Re)started in 2013 Norbord Mill Source: Company Documents and Other Public Filings 14

  15. Financial Sensitivities EBITDA Impact (1) Exposure Change ($ millions) $10 per Msf 7/16” North American OSB + $36 € 10 per m 3 European OSB + $7 Canadian dollar (2) $0.01 per Cdn$ < $1 £0.01 per € Pound sterling < $1 (1) Assumes operation at full capacity levels Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges Tax operating loss carry-forwards (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2013 – US $71 million, Canada C$49 million, Belgium € 30 million (2) Excluding dividends on common shares 15

Recommend


More recommend