INVESTOR PRESENTATION BRUSSELS MARCH 2019
EURONAV – WHO WE ARE The world’s largest, independent quoted crude tanker platform TOTAL 72 VESSELS Fleet summary 43 VLCC 25 SUEZMAX Fixed 12% 15% 15% 19% Av Age Av Age 47% 6.1 Yrs 9.7 Yrs 35% 35% 35% 0-5 6-10 11-14 0-5 6-10 11-14 15+ 2 FSO 2 ULCC Spot 88% 2
EURONAV – WHO WE ARE 3
Actively managed high quality fleet… EURONAV STRATEGY – LIQUIDITY FOCUS Liquidity in the Euronav share Balance sheet liquidity end Dec 2018 $674m 674 800 2000 10 439 60 700 1800 9 600 + no Daily Value traded $m per day last 12 months 500 outstanding 1600 8 $m capex 400 Free Float $ Market Cap (000) 1400 7 300 175 200 1200 6 100 0 1000 5 0 Cash Undrawn Undrawn FSO Total 800 4 Secured Unecured Financing Revolver Credit Line 600 3 Strong balance sheet hedge against cyclicality 400 2 o Tanker business is cyclical, towards which the only cure 200 1 is to have a strong balance sheet and liquidity pool o Policy to retain at least two years of operational 0 0 liquidity at all times and maintain strong banking Euronav DHT Frontline INSW relationships Source: Bloomberg
TANKER MARKET STRUCTURE Few customers, lots of suppliers Seasonal Cyclical Monthly average 1 Year 53,000 100,000 TCE rate 1990-2018 Monthly average Traders 90,000 VLCC rate 1990-2018 48,000 80,000 Oil Refiners 70,000 Companies 43,000 60,000 50,000 Ship Broker 38,000 40,000 30,000 P&L breakeven 33,000 20,000 owner Pool Cash breakeven 10,000 owner owner 28,000 owner owner 0 Jun Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr May Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Clarksons Source: Clarksons 5 Source: Euronav
FSO 5 year contract to 2022 OPERATIONALLY GEARED Each $5,000 uplift in both VLCC and Suezmax rates improves net revenue and EBITDA by $112mm Long term TC 7 year contract to 2024 $1,232 + $560 $336 $112 BASE Commercial TC relationships +$5,000 +$15,000 +$25,000 +$55,000 per day per day per day per day $25,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $80,000 VLCC TCE rates $20,000 $25,000 $35,000 $45,000 $75,000 Suezmax TCE rates 6
OPERATIONAL LEVERAGE IN PRACTICE 2019 EPS $1.32 IN 2015 = $16 SHARE PRICE .. If Euronav did VLCC $40k per day $30k Suez per day = $1.32 EPS…same as in 2015 $1.40 2019 VLCC 40k $1.20 $16 Suez 30k = $1.25 EPS Euronav $1.00 Share price EPS Euronav $0.00 $8 ($0.20) Source: Bloomberg 7
STRONG PRO FORMA FINANCIALS Leverage Repayment schedule and RCF reductions Highlights 600 Millions o Credit margins between 1.225% and 2.25% (Bond 7.5%) Most of the secured bank debt is revolving o 500 o Strong relationships with the leading international shipping banks o No material debt maturities until 2020 400 o Revolving credit facilities reduce by $138m/year Cash debt amortizations on term loans: $55m/year o 300 Strong & supporting banking relations 200 100 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Reductions (non-cash) Repayments Balloon to be refinanced Undrawn balloon to be refinanced Bond Maturity 8 Source: Euronav
INDUSTRY AND MARKET OVERVIEW
OUTLOOK FOR 2019 GAME OF TWO HALVES 1H HEADWINDS, 2H TAILWINDS Vessel IMO Supply Demand Ton Euronav Supply for Oil Miles Balance 2020 of Oil sheet US vs Peak Robust Positive Growing Flexibility Saudi in 19 10
DEMAND FOR OIL – ROBUST AND STEADY VLCC Equivalents Annual demand growth Y/Y Change in global demand for oil – consistently growing (mbpd) 1.6 49 1.5 46 1.4 2019 IEA 43 1.3 40 1.2 37 3.5 1.1 33 3.1 3.1 1 30 Average 1.1 million barrels per day 3.0 0.9 27 0.8 24 2.5 0.7 21 1.9 2.0 2.0 IEA m bpd global oil demand 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -1.5 Source IEA 11
OIL PRICE IMPACT ON DEMAND – LOWER PRICE IS POSITIVE Oil price outlook driven by Sheik v Shale/Trump tweets 110 100 < 1.1m Price is too high/demand is impacted Demand USD per barrel brent crude price 90 Destructive bpd 80 = 1.1m Neutral 70 bpd 60 Demand > 1.1m Stimulating bpd 50 40 Demand Price is too low/long-term supply impacted/CAPEX cuts in E&P Disruptive 30 20 Jun-2013 Dec-2013 Jun-2014 Dec-2014 Jun-2015 Dec-2015 Jun-2016 Dec-2016 Jun-2017 Dec-2017 Jun-2018 Dec-2018 Jun-2019 Dec-2019 Jun-2020 Dec-2020 Jun-2021 Dec-2021 Jun-2022 Dec-2022 Jun-2023 Dec-2023 Jun-2024 Dec-2024 Jun-2025 Dec-2025 Jun-2026 Dec-2026 12 Source: Bloomberg
US & OPEC crude production OIL SUPPLY - OPEC CUTS ALREADY IN 39,000 40,000 41,000 42,000 43,000 44,000 45,000 46,000 Source: Clarksons, Bloomberg Jul-2016 Aug-2016 Sep-2016 Oct-2016 Nov-2016 Dec-2016 Jan-2017 Feb-2017 Mar-2017 Apr-2017 May-2017 Jun-2017 US & OPEC crude output Jul-2017 Aug-2017 Sep-2017 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 VLCC rates Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 Jul-2018 Aug-2018 Sep-2018 Oct-2018 Nov-2018 Dec-2018 Jan-2019 Feb-2019 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 13 VLCC freight rates
LESS EFFECTIVE RISE OF US SHALE MEANS OPEC CUTS US crude production Source: Bloomberg 10,000 12,000 14,000 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 0 Jul-2016 Aug-2016 Sep-2016 Oct-2016 Nov-2016 Dec-2016 Jan-2017 Feb-2017 Mar-2017 Apr-2017 May-2017 Jun-2017 Jul-2017 US output Aug-2017 Sep-2017 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 OPEC output Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 Jul-2018 Aug-2018 Sep-2018 Oct-2018 Nov-2018 Dec-2018 Jan-2019 Feb-2019 28,000 29,000 30,000 31,000 32,000 33,000 34,000 35,000 OPEC crude production 14
OIL SUPPLY – OPEC CUTS ARE IN..BUT SUPPLY BACKGROUND CONSTRUCTIVE US Saudi Russia Total global oil supply 13.0 103.0 102.5 12.5 US, Saudi & Russia oil production m bpd 102.0 Total oil supply m bbls per day 12.0 101.5 11.5 101.0 100.5 11.0 100.0 10.5 99.5 10.0 99.0 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Source: Ciitigroup 15
TON MILES - INCREASING Demand growth all from Far East – key for tankers is where supply is sourced from Atlantic Basin – Far East route Middle East - Asia Pacific route 1.4 mbpd x 365 days = 511m barrels 1.4 mbpd x 365 days = 511m barrels Annual VLCC 511m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 256 cargoes 511m barrels / 2m capacity per VLCC = 256 cargoes demand 256 cargoes / 4.5 annual journeys for VLCC Atlantic – F East 256 cargoes / 9 annual journeys for VLCC MEG – F East equivalents growth = 57 VLCCs = 28 VLCCs (mbpd) 43 1.6 49 1.5 46 1.4 43 1.3 40 1.2 37 China Asia Pacific Middle East 1.1 33 Exporter West Africa 1 30 Demand 0.9 27 Supply US/LatAm / Caribs 28 0.8 24 Importer VLCCs 57 Demand 0.7 21 VLCCs Supply East of Suez will provide 81% West of Suez will provide 81% of new oil consumption & 74% of new oil production to 2023 new refinery capacity to 2023 Source Euronav, Morgan Stanley, Fearnley 16
VESSEL SUPPLY – BALANCE IMPROVING Korea dominating tanker orders Shipyard Consolidation CONTRACTING NEW VESSELS VLCC OB/Fleet = 13.5% Suezmax OB/Fleet = 10.4% ORDER BOOK Below historic averages OPERATIONAL FLEET More Iranian vessels to exit IMO prep will reduce capacity Global fleet age will require RECYCLING further recycling Source: Euronav 17
VESSEL SUPPLY - CONTRACTING – DRIVEN BY INDUSTRIAL REPLACEMENT/ “CHEAP” PRICES VLCC below $80m attracted buyers No of VLCC orders Expansion No of VLCC orders Replacement No of VLCC orders Speculative/Scrubber New Build VLCC price 10 95 9 93 8 91 Value of New build VLCC No of VLCC contracted 7 89 6 87 5 85 4 83 3 81 2 79 1 0 77 Sep-2016 Oct-2016 Nov-2016 Dec-2016 Jan-2017 Feb-2017 Mar-2017 Apr-2017 May-2017 Jun-2017 Jul-2017 Aug-2017 Sep-2017 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Dec-2017 Jan-2018 Feb-2018 Mar-2018 Apr-2018 May-2018 Jun-2018 Jul-2018 Aug-2018 Sep-2018 Oct-2018 Nov-2018 Dec-2018 Jan-2019 Source: Clarksons 18
VESSEL SUPPLY – CHANGES IN SHIPBUILDING STRUCTURE Korea dominates crude tanker orderbook Consolidation in Shipbuilding sector Global Market share in shipbuilding VLCC Suezmax 70 Number of VLCC & Suezmax ordered since 2017 60 Hyundai Heavy Industries Samsung Heavy 14% 50 DSME 4% 6% 40 30 20 Other 76% 10 0 Korea Japan China Source: Clarksons Source: CSFB 19
VLCC DELIVERY SCHEDULE Delivered To be Delivered Recycled To be Recycled 80 48 60 50 47 39 39 40 30 Number of VLCCs per year 24 20 20 11 17 0 -1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -4 -2 -14 -14 -20 -22 -21 -31 -31 -40 -39 -60 Source: Clarksons 20
SUEZMAX DELIVERY SCHEDULE Delivered To be Delivered Recycled To be Recycled 70 57 60 50 40 16 32 Number of Suezmax per year 27 27 30 17 20 10 17 8 10 2 -1 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -1 -10 -7 -7 -13 -20 -15 -22 -23 -30 -26 -40 Source: Clarksons 21
CONCENTRATION OF VESSEL SUPPLY 2019 IS A HEADWIND FOR VLCC 65 39 25 2020 2019 21 20 18 No of VLCC deliveries per quarter 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 0 22 Source Clarksons
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