Purpose of Purpose of this w orkshop this w orkshop and and Introduction Introduction of Japan of Japan Scenario Scenario Designed by Hajime Sakai Junichi Fujino Junichi Fujino (fuji@ (fuji@ nies.go.jp) nies.go.jp) NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan 2007 AIM Training Workshop, October 22, 2007
We support country-wise LCS modeling Japan Low Carbon through SD for Asia-Pacific and the world Society 2050 - We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1997 - Oct 16-20, 2006 at NIES South Taiwan, India China Thailand Korea Malaysia Indonesia Brazil Russia USA Japan Africa China http://2050.nies.go.jp
2007 AIM Training WS How to develop residential/transportation scenarios for LCS study 1. how to depict future image of each sector (especially residential sector and transportation sector) and discuss among participants. 2. to show our modeling approach to calculate energy demand in each sector and discuss how to apply our method to each country considering data limitation. 3. develop each country residential/transportation energy demand toward 2050.
We are now collecting 7 Current per capita country-level LCS scenarios! CO 2 emissions 6 CO 2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) $200/t-C scenario and Target US 5 US: delay for tech development, Canada global warming business 4 EU: Initiatives toward LCS Japan: Need long-term vision UK Germany 3 METI, Japan Developing countries: earlier 2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key 2 France Japan 2050 scenario World 1 Target for China IA2 Low Carbon Society IB1 India 0 Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005
CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Gt-C 1.0 LCS Scenario 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Jiang Kejun, Low-Carbon Options in China EMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006
Reduction Targets 9,000 8,000 Emissions, mmt of CO2-e 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Bingaman-Specter Draft 2007 Lieberman-McCain 2007* Udall-Petri 2006 Waxman 2007 Sanders-Boxer 2007 Kerry-Snowe 2007 Feinstein August 2006 web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/reports.html#pubs
Why we develop Japan LCS Scenarios? 1. Why we need LCS? 2. Can Japan achieve LCS toward 2050? 3. How to structure global participation? Japan Low Carbon Society 2050 http://2050.nies.go.jp
1978 Himalayan “the abode North Pole Ice in Sep. of snow” Glaciers 1998 Source: NASA
CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 o C) http://2050.nies.go.jp
5.0 25 (above the pre-industrial level) 温室効果ガス排出量 ( 二酸化炭素換算： GtC/ 年 ) GHG emissions (Gt-Ceq) BaU Global GHG emissions Temperature raise 4.0 20 (global average) BaU Temperature raise 気温上昇 (1990 年 =0.6 ℃ ) 650 3.0 15 550 500 2.0 10 475 GHG GHG475ppm 650 475ppm 550 1.0 5 GHG: Greenhouse gases 500 50% reduction 0.0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2040 2060 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2030 2050 2070 2080 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 年 年 Year Year BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm • Impacts will be • It is estimated that around 50% GHG occurred even in reductions in 2050 are required to 2C temp control. control temperature raise below 2C • Adaptation is necessary. •Japan may be required more reduction (60-80%). Another country-level 2050 scenarios have been studied Calculated by (UK 60%, Germany 80%, France 75%, and so on). AIM/Impact[policy] Model
To control temperature ra To control temperature r aise ise Global GHG emissions should Global GHG emissions should 5.0 25 温室効果ガス排出量 ( 二酸化炭素換算： GtC/ 年 ) BaU below 2 o o C Japan below 2 C Japan be reduced by 50% in 2050 be reduced by 50% in 2050 GHG emissions (Gt-Ceq) (above the pre-industrial level) 4.0 20 Low- - Low 気温上昇 (1990 年 =0.6 ℃ ) Calculated by BaU 650 Temperature raise 3.0 15 Carbon AIM model Carbon 550 650 500 Society Society 2.0 10 475 550 GHG475ppm Project Project 50% 500 1.0 5 reduction GHG: Greenhouse gases Japanese 0.0 0 reduction 1990 2000 2010 2020 2040 2060 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 2140 2150 2030 2050 2070 2080 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 target in 2050 年 Year 年 Year 60-80% Possible trend Possible trend- -breaking options breaking options to achieve to achieve BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm How to structure How to structure 70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan 70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan 7 CO 2 Emissions global participation global participation Current per capita Main factors to reduce CO 2 emissions Main factors to reduce CO 2 emissions Factors Class. Factors Class. Increase of 22 SD Activity CO 2 reductions in energy end-use sector （ MtC ） 29 31 Soci- Soci- • High economic growth • High economic growth Demand growth by Demand growth by ety ety 9 CO 2 emissions • Decrease of population and number of households • Decrease of population and number of households activity level change activity level change 6 19 CO 2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) • Energy efficient improvement of furnace and motor • Energy efficient improvement of furnace and motor Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Reduction of CO 2 emissions （ MtC ） $200/t-C scenario and Target Industrial Industrial 28 etc. etc. Imp. (EE) Imp. (EE) US EE 84 6 • Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas • Fuel switching from coal/oil to natural gas Carbon Intensity Carbon Intensity 10 5 Imp. (CI) Imp. (CI) US: delay for tech development, 34 • High insulation dwelling and building • High insulation dwelling and building CO 2 emissions in 2000 Canada Reduction of service Reduction of service global warming business Residential and Residential and CI • Home/Building energy management system • Home/Building energy management system demands (SD) demands (SD) commercial commercial 12 27 transformation sector （ MtC ） 4 Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency • Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, • Efficient air-conditioner, Efficient water heater, CO 2 reductions in energy EU: Initiatives toward LCS Efficient lighting system Efficient lighting system Imp. (EE) Imp. (EE) • Fuel cell system • Fuel cell system Carbon Carbon EE & CI 73 Japan: Need long-term vision 73 UK • Photovoltaic on the roof • Photovoltaic on the roof Intensity Imp. (CI) Intensity Imp. (CI) Germany 3 • Intensive land-use, Concentrated urban function • Intensive land-use, Concentrated urban function Reduction of service Reduction of service METI, Japan portation portation Trans- Trans- • Public transportation system • Public transportation system demands (SD) demands (SD) Developing countries: earlier CCS 2030 scenario 42 • Motor-driven mobiles: Electric battery vehicles, Fuel • Motor-driven mobiles: Electric battery vehicles, Fuel EE & CI EE & CI 42 guidance toward LCS is key cell battery vehicles cell battery vehicles 2 France Japan 2050 CO 2 emissions • Nuclear energy • Nuclear energy Carbon Intensity Carbon Intensity Transformation Transformation • Effective use of electricity in night time with storage • Effective use of electricity in night time with storage Imp. (CI) Imp. (CI) in 2050 scenario World Energy Energy • Hydrogen supply with low-carbon energy sources • Hydrogen supply with low-carbon energy sources 1 • Advanced fossil fueled plants + CCS • Advanced fossil fueled plants + CCS Carbon Capture Carbon Capture Target for China • Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS • Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS and Storage (CCS) and Storage (CCS) IA2 Low Carbon Society IB1 India EE: Energy Efficiency Improvement, CI: Carbon Intensity Improvement, SD: Reduction of Service Demand 0 Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event Large GHG cut is possible in Japan Large GHG cut is possible in Japan Global Challenges Toward Junichi Fujino, Jan 12 2007 at Iddri, Paris, fuji@nies.go.jp Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005
How fast we need to reduce GHG emissions Per capita Energy Carbon activity Intensity Intensity Total amount Activity Energy CO 2 CO 2 emissions ＝ Pop × Pop × × Activity Energy 60-80% reductions differential Change rate integral Total Kaya identity Change rate ＝ speed Activity Energy CO 2 Pop CO 2 emission ＋ ＋ ＋ Pop Activity Energy ＝ Change rate Change rate change rate change rate change rate X%/year -2~3%/year -0.5%/year 1.5%/year Y%/year 1%/year -3~4%/year The case of Japan LCS
Required improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity to achieve LCS Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity (w/o CCS) Carbon Intensity (CCS only) Historical trend Japan Scenario A Japan ScenarioB 60-80% U.K. reductions towards 2050 France Germany 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Improvement rate of carbon and energy intensity (%/y) Keep double speed to improve carbon and energy intensity compared as that of the historical record!
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