Public Sector Science, Technology and Innovation in the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution “Implications of the 4th Industrial Revolution for SET, industry, society and education” workshop 11 September 2018 Garth Williams Research Specialist: Intelligence Disclaimer: The views and opinions of the presenter do not necessarily represent those of the Technology Innovation Agency.
TIA Mandate ndate Mandate To support the State in stimulating and intensifying technological innovation in order to improve economic growth and the quality of life of all South Africans by developing and exploiting technological innovation - TIA ACT 2008 (Act No 26 of 2008) To be a world class innovation agency that supports and enables ision ion technological innovation to achieve socio-economic benefits for Vis South Africa. To support technology innovators to unlock South Africa’s global Mission ission competitiveness and deliver socio-economic value.
TIA Business Case ▪ Establish new Industries iginal nal se Biz Case ▪ Diversify the economy ▪ Localisation and beneficiation Orig ▪ Transform the industry Bi ▪ Create sustainable jobs (provide an enabling environment) TIA's ultimate goal is to use South Africa's science and technology base to Goal Goal develop new industries , create sustainable jobs and help diversify the economy away from commodity exports towards knowledge-based industries equipped to address modern global challenges ▪ Appropriately structured financial and non-financial interventions for the commercialization of R&D results tions tervention ▪ Development and maintenance of advanced human capacity for innovation gic c ategi as opposed to just R&D human capital Strate ▪ Building a culture of innovation in the South African economy ▪ Leveraging local and international partnerships to facilitate joint innovation, Inter in-bound technology transfer, building local technological competencies, and encourage foreign direct investment for the commercialization of technologies in South Africa
Fourth Industrial Revolution (WEF) The advent of Cyber-Physical Systems involving new capabilities for people and machines, representing entirely new ways in which technology becomes embedded within societies and even human bodies. Source: World Economic Forum
FIR: All about convergence Convergence of digital technologies • Big data & data analytics • Autonomous and collaborative robots • Simulations (of products, materials, and production) • Horizontal and vertical systems integration • Industrial Internet of things • Cybersecurity • The Cloud / Cloud computing • Additive manufacturing • Augmented reality • Human/machine interfaces • But also convergence of physical, digital and biological spheres. • And convergence of technologies, society and the economy. 5
Criticism of the “FIR” • “…there are three reasons why today’s transformations represent not merely a prolongation of the third industrial Revolution, but rather the arrival of a fourth and distinct one: velocity, scope, and systems impact.” • Not so fast: Digital technology (third industrial revolution) has disrupted entire economic sectors and created new business models for several decades by bringing the cost of computing to near zero marginal cost: • PCs, cell phones, the WWW, social media, data storage, digital music and video, renewable energy technology, fabrication technology, robotics, artificial intelligence, gene splicing and gene sequencing, synthetic biology, GPS tracking, Internet of Things. • Velocity, scope, and systems impact has been exponential and transformative. • “…the speed of current breakthroughs has no historic precedent.” • Not true: The first industrial revolution (wholesale transformation from a largely agricultural society to an industrial economy) took less than four decades. Source: Jeremy Rifkin, http://tinyurl.com/rifkin-fir
Determinants of Long-Run Growth • Orthodox economics: Growth mostly from factors of production (land, capital, labour), plus a small amount from total factor productivity • (Total factor productivity is the residual or unaccounted value over and above labour productivity plus capital productivity, attributed to the production process itself) • But Solow determined that total factor productivity accounted for 70% of economic growth in the modern era! • Long-run economic growth is determined by productivity growth, which in turn is driven by technological change (Schumpeter, 1934; Solow, 1956; Freeman, 1992) • Key breakthrough technologies (e.g. the steam engine) have underpinned surges in society and the economy • For SA to catch up and forge ahead, local scientific research, technological development and innovation (both technological and non-technological) focused on indigenous challenges and opportunities is crucial • It is also important to build technological capabilities in order to assimilate and adapt foreign technologies for technological diffusion within firms, across the economy and into society
What is ‘Technology’ (and some sociology) A complex of artefacts (tangible/intangible) and knowledge (tacit and codified) within a social context . Source: Prof. Eric Millstone Technological determinism: a reductionist theory that presumes that a society's technology drives the development of its social structure and cultural values Social determinism: the theory that social interactions and constructs alone determine individual behaviour
Which paradigm? Source: World Economic Forum 9
Which paradigm? (cont.) Kondratiev Waves of Capitalist Expansion Source: Saskatchewan Research Council) 10
Which paradigm? (cont.) Society 5.0 11
Which paradigm? (cont.) 3 rd Digital Revolution Source: Neil Gershenveld 12
Which paradigm? (cont.) The Third Industrial Revolution Source: Jeremy Rifkin
Which paradigm? (cont.) Waves of Techno-Economic Paradigms Source: Hargroves & Smith
Which paradigm? (cont.) Techno-Economic Paradigms (Socio-Technical Revolutions) Source: Prof. Carlotta Perez
Industrie 4.0 Source: Yokogawa Germany
Factory 4.0
Operator 4.0 Source: Prof. David Romero
Tool 4.0
World-wide FIR-type Initiatives Source: Roland Berger
Rationale for Interventions Source: Roland Berger
A Heuristic/Mental Model • Don’t get hung up on the name • Lots of techno-babble (techno- eutopia, techno-anxiety, etc.) • ‘No agency’ narrative • The Fourth Industrial Revolution is a heuristic or “mental model” to understand and influencing the way in which emerging technologies are changing how value is created, exchanged and distributed across economic and social systems • Fears of disrupting already fragile labour markets creating job losses, thereby widening inequality and deepening poverty • As with transitioning to a low-C future, technological change in society and the economy needs to be just, inclusive and sustainable • As South Africans, we need to shape our own future! Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=33962866 ini nde ncome e uality o data
Public Sector Efforts • Government-wide FIR Country Strategy and Action Plan • Cabinet-initiated • Led by Department of Telecommunications and Postal Services (DTPS); supported by Department of Science and Technology (DST), Department of Trade and Industry ( the dti ); reports to The Presidency • Possible work streams: • Digital society, ICT policy, regulatory and legislative reforms • Innovation, research and development • Economic policy and inclusive growth • Industrial restructuring and trade • Labour market restructuring • Education and skills development • Transforming government and service delivery • Parliamentary process • Educating MPs and Legislature; public engagement; regulatory framework • Secretariat: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR)
Public Sector Efforts (cont.) • Science, Technology and Innovation • Led by DST; supported by Technology Innovation Agency (TIA), Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), National Advisory Council on Innovation (NACI) and CSIR • Initiatives: • Converging Technologies Platform (CSIR) • Inclusive Development Platform • Network of Outreach Centres • Baseline survey of SA FIR-related activities (HSRC) • Global literature review (HSRC) • SA-EU FIR Policy Dialogue – produce a policy framework to inform the country strategy (HSRC SA-EU Dialogue Facility PMU, 10-12 Dec 2018) • Africa Tech Week (Topco Media, March 2019) • DST efforts will feed into the government-wide country strategy, and the DST’s new Decadal Plan and 5 -year strategic planning process • DST efforts will also be aligned to the core policy imperatives of the new White Paper on Science, Technology and Innovation, viz. greater coordination between government and industry, the development of sector plans, etc
Converging Technologies Platform Etc.
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