Provincial elections: A Neglected Treasure Trove Richard Johnston - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Provincial elections: A Neglected Treasure Trove Richard Johnston UBC

Provincial Election Studies • Ontario 1968, 1977 • 2002 (Cutler & Lyle) • BC 1979-80 • Quebec sovereignty study 1995 • ..... • ........... • ..................... • Saskatchewan 2011 • Making Electoral Democracy Work • Ontario 2011, Quebec 2012 • Vote Compass • Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, BC • Comparative Provincial Election Project

CES Cumulative file, 1965-2011 province | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 10 | 1,480 3.10 3.10 11 | 1,349 2.83 5.93 12 | 1,828 3.83 9.76 13 | 1,822 3.82 13.58 24 | 12,630 26.48 40.06 35 | 13,745 28.81 68.87 46 | 2,446 5.13 74.00 47 | 2,367 4.96 78.96 48 | 4,235 8.88 87.84 59 | 5,612 11.76 99.61 60 | 90 0.19 99.80 61 | 97 0.20 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 47,701 100.00

Using provincial elections to understand federal ones % f 1 . u n s I C 5 9 h t i w 2 n o i o s g d a M l a n o i t i n t o C i n a l E f e c n u . t i d n o C i o n 2 w 1 i t h 9 5 % C I s i o n l f o s t c e f E a n i g r a M l a r 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.20 Marginal effect Marginal effect 0.15 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 15 15 20 20 25 25 30 30 35 35 40 40 45 45 50 50 55 55 60 60 % Catholic in province % Catholic in province Federal Federal Provincial Provincial F IGURE 6 The Provincial “Counterfactual” II Conditional Impact of Union Membership and Religious Context,1965-2011 Note: Data from Canadian Election S tion Studies and from the census in corresponding years. Quebec and Catholic respondents excluded. Underlying estimation by probit with stacked dat ked data. Vertical bars are 95% confidence intervals, based on asymptotic standard errors reflecting clustering of census data by province and duplicat nd duplication of independent variables across stacks.

Elections BC, 2013 Pre-election ResLastCall | Date | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 2.01e+07 | 36 3.57 3.57 2.01e+07 | 36 3.57 7.14 2.01e+07 | 30 2.98 10.12 2.01e+07 | 36 3.57 13.69 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 17.36 2.01e+07 | 57 5.65 23.02 2.01e+07 | 21 2.08 25.10 2.01e+07 | 68 6.75 31.85 2.01e+07 | 32 3.17 35.02 2.01e+07 | 23 2.28 37.30 2.01e+07 | 26 2.58 39.88 2.01e+07 | 19 1.88 41.77 2.01e+07 | 23 2.28 44.05 2.01e+07 | 24 2.38 46.43 2.01e+07 | 40 3.97 50.40 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 54.07 2.01e+07 | 41 4.07 58.13 2.01e+07 | 36 3.57 61.71 2.01e+07 | 34 3.37 65.08 2.01e+07 | 27 2.68 67.76 2.01e+07 | 25 2.48 70.24 2.01e+07 | 29 2.88 73.12 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 76.79 2.01e+07 | 34 3.37 80.16 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 83.83 2.01e+07 | 42 4.17 88.00 2.01e+07 | 32 3.17 91.17 2.01e+07 | 37 3.67 94.84 2.01e+07 | 52 5.16 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 1,008 100.00

Elections BC, 2013 Post-election Did | Respondent | Vote | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 0 | 1,000 50.00 50.00 1 | 1,000 50.00 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 2,000 100.00

Vote Compass 0.70 0.70 Proportion intending to vote for party 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.40 0.40 s a y t _ l e f t 2 d n e t n l i _ p d n s s o w e 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.10 0.10 29 22 15 8 1 Days to election Liberal NDP Smoothing by loess bandwidth = 0.20

CPEP public use data set Province | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- Ontario | 1,044 26.10 26.10 pei | 509 12.72 38.83 nfld | 851 21.27 60.10 mb | 775 19.38 79.47 sk | 821 20.52 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 4,000 100.00