Climate Hub, COP24 “ Prospects for Spaceship Earth ” David Oldroyd (Silesia Botanic Garden) 7 December 2018 Katowice, Poland
Is this the world you ’ ve made for me?
1 . What is the Machine World doing to Spaceship Earth?
A Finite Complex Machine
‘ Spaceship Earth ’ Finite Super-complex ‘ Gaia ’
Machine World Impact – Anthropocene Epoch
ANTHROPOCENE Terraforming by Machine World (debt & fossil fuelled) • CO2, global warming and acidification of oceans due to unintended climate modification; • the pervasive presence around the globe of plastics, concrete, and other techno-fossils; • unprecedented rates of deforestation and extinction; • cocoon of electromagnetic transmissions
Machine World Terra-forming ANTHROPOCENE (debt & fossil fuelled)
Anthropocene – the era of human impact 2017 AD 7.6 billion humans 1950 AD Great acceleration 1810 AD 1750 AD 10 000 BP 1 billion humans Industrial revolution Agricultural revolution
Three stages of the Anthropocene 1. The Industrial Revolution - 1750 � [stable Holocene Epoch ends] 2. The Great Acceleration - 1950 to 2010/2030 [exponential take off - Anthropocene Epoch] 3. The Great Transition? [equilibrium] OR The Great Disruption? [system overshoot & collapse]
The Disruptive Elephant in the Spaceship
‘ The elephant in the room ’ = Global Machine World Debt and fossil-fuelled GDP growth “ The invisible hand of market forces ” Climate change is one of many symptoms of free market fundamentalism But Note: public subsidy of the fossil fuel industry . (An ideological contradiction .)
Take-Make-Use-Dump
Mega-corporations: low-tax; high-dump ‘ Droppings from the elephant ’ ?
Two Worlds in Conflict 1. The Natural World 3.8 billion years evolving Self-regulating diverse ecological balance of adaptive systems in equilibrium time
Accelerating Human Impact 2. The ‘ Machine World ’ [Hockey Stick] 10000 years of urban culture; 300 years of high-tech. unsustainable exponential growth & loss of resources, diversity, stability This is where addiction to growth is taking us … .!! time
Seneca Curve – self-regulation
Human Impact on Nature = Population x Wealth x Technology
Impacts on the Natural World 1. Climate disruption & sea level rise 2. Pollution of air, water and land 3. Depletion - fossil energy, minerals. soils, 4. Depletion - fisheries, forests, water 5. Biodiversity and ecosystem losses - the planet ’ s 6th Great Extinction . 6. Global epidemics of disease
How fast is the Great Acceleration in the Anthropocene? Exponential doubling rates • 70 divided by the percentage rate • e.g. Poland ’ s GDP @ 3% = 23.3 years
Source: IPCC
IPCC REPORT 10/18 (De-growth required) By 2030: • CO2 emissions down 55% for 1.5C target (Holocene 275 ppm; Now 412 ppm) • Coal use almost zero • Land energy crops up by 2.7 million square miles OR • Sea level rise • Ocean temperature + acidity increase • Crop production (rice, maize, wheat) down NOAA – effects on ocean irreversible for 1000 years, even with zero CO2 emissions
On track for 2100?
The Earth is (over)full
Ecological footprint overshoot overshoot Ecological footprint 2017 7 201 OVERSHOT OVERSHOT MAX. CAPACITY MAX. CAPACITY 1750 1970
Energy for the Machine World
Primary Energy World Consumption (millions of tonnes oil equivalent)
Expansion of human societies • In the next 14 years 1 billion extra humans • Every day 228000 more humans born than die. • Every minute 150+ additional people require energy, water, food, and space on the finite planet
Expansion of Mobility
Expansion of road vehicles • 1970 250,000,000 • 2016 1,200,000,000 • 2050 2,500,000,000 (10x since 1970) Unintended consequences?
The Anthropocene ‘ double bind ’ Humanity ’ s existential dilemma EITHER Keep ‘ developing ’ and destroy the Earth, our offspring and even ourselves OR Reverse economic development (growth) & exponential human impact BUT face poverty, hunger & uncertainty
5 Stages of Collapse The likely sequence of collapses: 1. Financial 2. Commercial 3. Political 4. Social 5. Cultural http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/
2. Challenge for Activists
Prospect for action?
Why activists have little effect • They cannot articulate alternatives • They do not control the levers of power & ‘ manufactured consent ’ • There is no ‘ re-set button ’ for transition • Human addictive appetite fed by the Machine World (culture of consumption) • Human agency too weak to shift structures & systems of dominance (inertia)
Barriers to transition to Machine & Nature equilibrium Worldviews: ‘ story ’ , existential beliefs (drive for ‘ expansion ’ ; ‘ Homo Deus ’ anthropocentric technophilia & hubris) Leadership: (self-serving power & control) Followership: – distraction, delusion & denial – addiction to ‘ more & more ’ Huge inequalities: of wealth & power Scale & Rate: e.g. Zero CO2+ by 2050?
Consumer Addiction & Obesity
Two ‘ development ’ delusions • The radical TECHNOFIX DELUSION believes that technology and human ingenuity will prevent catastrophe. • The GREEN DELUSION believes that humans can voluntarily downsize & simplify and desire less of everything http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20120615-global-tipping-point
Strategies for the Titanic: Denial, Distraction, Action? 1. Deny that it is happening? 2. Distract yourself & have fun? 3. Organise urgent action ? Personal lifestyle, professional work, community & mass movement action, political engagement. Learn-Share-Act Keep on keeping on – like Greta Thunberg!
What can (and can ’ t) we do? http://case4all.org/ what-can-we-do Strategies: 1. STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION 2. MASS MOBILISATION 3. PERSONAL & COMMUNITY ‘ GLOCAL ’ ACTION
Transition Story: good intentions
SiBG action • Biochar project – organic soils from waste recycling for CO2 capture + chemical-free fertility • Fast tree project - sequestration + timber • Traditional seed banks & plant conservation • Ecological education + outreach program • www.case4all.org – community action blog & resource platform
Re-define ‘ progress ’ from WITHOUT LIMITS: (Exponential human impact) to WITHIN LIMITS: (Long-term equilibrium) Global Transformation to “ Cooperative Cooperative self-limitation ” “
It ’ s Our Future!
Supplementary Slides
World energy to increase 56% by 2040 (US AIE prediction)
System transition? Attack the causes … ( “ elephant in the room ” ) = Expansionist infinite growth based on GDP + definition of ‘ progress ’ by elites & consumers of the symptoms? ( “ hockey sticks ” ) = all other exponential human impacts are symptoms • Economics – redistributive circular • Ecological footprint - within nature ’ s limits • Equilibrium - global population 2 billion • Economic fairness - redistribution of wealth • Expectations – sufficient is enough • STATE/PRIVATE? TOP-DOWN/MASS MOVEMENT?
The Unstable ‘ Machine World ’ 1. Global debt-based financial system instability 2. Dependence on fossil energy-based growth 3. Increasing inequality in wealth & poverty 4. Illegal migration & criminal global trafficking 5. Regional ethnic, resource & religious conflicts 6. Nuclear weapons proliferation 7. Terrorism 8. Urbanization & mega-cities (35>10 million) 9. Cyber-warfare and internet fragility 10. Uncontrolled artificial intelligence (AI) 11. Genetic engineering unpredicted effects 12. Egocentric & predatory political leaders
Long- -term transitions term transitions Long 1. ‘ ‘ ’ Cowboy Story ’ � ‘ ‘ Spaceship Earth Story Spaceship Earth Story ’ ’ � 1. Cowboy Story 2. reduce 2. reduce & & stabili stabilis se the human population e the human population steady- -state economy state economy � steady economic growth � 3. economic growth 3. 4. anthropo anthropo/EGO /EGO- -centrism centrism � � ECO ECO- -centrism centrism 4. 5. regulate and regulate and tax (shell companies) tax (shell companies) 5. 6. tax resource use & waste (inherent greed) tax resource use & waste (inherent greed) 6. 7. preserve habitat preserve habitat for for all all species species 7. 8. empower women 8. empower women 9. act locally; think globally act locally; think globally 9.
Renewable Energy Consumption Million tonnes oil equivalent % generation by region
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