Prom oting Cooperation & Transparency of Oil Data Managem ent - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Prom oting Cooperation & Transparency of Oil Data Managem ent through JODI Fuad A. Al-Zayer Head Data Services Departm ent OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1

OUTLI NE Transparent oil data essential for m arket stability Data m anagem ent in OPEC Joint Oil Data I nitiative ( JODI ) Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 2

OUTLI NE Transparent oil data essential for m arket stability Data m anagem ent in OPEC Joint Oil Data I nitiative ( JODI ) Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 3

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY W hy is good data essential for oil m arket stability? W hy is good data essential for oil m arket stability? Support sound decision m aking Encourage investm ents Reduce m arket volatility Facilitate im proved short-term forecasts Ensure oil m arket stability Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 4

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY OPEC’ ’s production decisions s production decisions – – significant im pact significant im pact OPEC on the oil m arket on the oil m arket Decisions based on Decisions based on Econom ic forecast W orld oil dem and Non-OPEC supply I nventories Refinery utilization and m argins Oil and product prices Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 5

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY Challenges in assessing oil data Challenges in assessing oil data Unreliable - poor quality data Unavailability of certain data Revision of historical data Uncertainty about m arket outlook Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 6

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY Market Fundam entals Market Fundam entals DEMAND OPEC PRODUCTI ON NON-OPEC SUPPLY Expectation of fundam entals is a tool to predict inventory m ovem ents Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 7

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY Oil Price & Market Fundam entals Oil Price & Market Fundam entals Stock Change Market Fundam entals ( DATA) Psychology Manipulation ( Geopolitical ( Speculators) Price Pressure Tension, etc.) Expectation of inventory m ovem ents, am ong other factors, drives the direction of crude oil prices. . Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 8

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY W TI versus US Crude Stocks W TI versus US Crude Stocks 80 US$ / Barrel 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 1994 - 2003 2004 2005 2006 Linear (1994 - 2003) 0 255 270 285 300 315 330 345 360 Million Barrels Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 9

TRANSPARENT OI L DATA ESSENTI AL FOR MARKET STABI LI TY Continued revisions of historical oil dem and Continued revisions of historical oil dem and 1.5 mb/d 2 0 0 3 1.0 0.5 Reporting Month 0.0 A p r-0 4 A p r-0 5 J u l-0 4 O c t-0 4 J a n -0 5 J u l-0 5 O c t-0 5 J a n -0 6 0.5 w orld oil dem and in 2 0 0 3 : 7 9 .2 m b/ d 1.0 OPEC Source 1 Source 2 Source 3 Source 4 1.5 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 10

OUTLI NE Transparent oil data essential for m arket stability Data m anagem ent in OPEC Joint Oil Data I nitiative ( JODI ) Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 11

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 12

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC Data Managem ent an I ntegral Part of Research Data Managem ent an I ntegral Part of Research Activities in OPEC Activities in OPEC Energy Studies Dept. RESEARCH Petroleum Market Analysis Dept. DI VI SI ON Data Services Dept. ( DSD) Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 13

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC SG Energy Studies Research Division Dept. (ESD) DSD Public Relations & Petroleum & Market Information Dept. Dept. (PMAD) (PRID) Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 14

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC I n-house Research Direct Com m unication Publications Data Data Data I ntranet Collection Dissem ination Processing W EB Secondary JODI Sources Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 15

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC OPEC Database OPEC Database Macroeconom ic Com ponents Reserves, Capacity Energy Statistics and Balances Oil Supply Oil Dem and Refinery Operations Prices JODI Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 16

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC OPEC database OPEC database OPEC Mem ber Countries Non-OPEC countries: e.g. China, Mexico etc. Direct OPEC DATABASE Sources Secondary Sources JODI DATABASE I EA/ OECD I MF W orld Bank Platt’s Petroleum Argus Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 17

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC OPEC w ebpage - - w w w .opec.org w w w .opec.org OPEC w ebpage Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 18

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC OPEC w ebpage - - w w w .opec.org w w w .opec.org OPEC w ebpage Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 19

DATA MANAGEMENT I N OPEC OPEC w ebpage - - w w w .opec.org w w w .opec.org OPEC w ebpage Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 20

OUTLI NE Transparent oil data essential for m arket stability Data m anagem ent in OPEC Joint Oil Data I nitiative ( JODI ) Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 21

JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Consum er-producer dialogue dates back to the 1 9 8 0 ’s Com m on interest of producers and consum ers Stable oil m arket Reliable and transparent oil data JODI Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 22

JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Objective of JODI Objective of JODI JODI launched in 2 0 0 1 by six organizations - OPEC, APEC, Eurostat, I EA, OLADE and UNSD Response to a directive from Ministers at the 7 th I nternational Energy Forum ( I EF) Nov. 2 0 0 0 , w ho saw the need for an initiative that w ould enhance “ cooperation am ong relevant international organizations, as w ell as participating countries, in im proving tim ely access to energy data ” Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 23

JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) 7 th IEF Meeting in Riyadh 2000 High volatility in oil prices Lack of transparent reliable statistics Efforts to increase data transparency Ministers at I EF support better data Birth of Joint Oil Data Exercise Raise aw areness for oil data Transparent consum er-producer oil data Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 24

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) w w w .jodidata.org Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 25

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Background Background Release of JODI Release of JODI Focus on data quality Focus on data quality World database World database ? From JODE to JODI From JODE to JODI Riyadh (permanent mechanism) (permanent mechanism) Nov 05 Bali Oct 04 Amsterdam May 04 Cairo Oct 03 Osaka Launch of Launch of Sep 02 Necessity for transparent Necessity for transparent Mexico JODE JODE May 02 timely and reliable data timely and reliable data Riyadh Nov 01 Bangkok Apr 01 Riyadh Nov 00 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 26

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Launch of JODI w orld database Launch of JODI w orld database Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 27

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Participating countries Participating countries Global Oil Consumption Global Oil Production Global Oil Consumption Global Oil Production 90% 90% 90% 90% 92 Countries 92 Countries Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 28

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Achievem ents of JODI Achievem ents of JODI Political aw areness in data reliability I m proved attitude tow ard data confidentiality Strengthened producer-consum er dialogue Cooperation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 29

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Cooperation Cooperation Establishm ent of a joint review com m ittee Broader cooperation on data issues Joint w orkshops Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 30

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Data m anagem ent - - know ledge in JODI know ledge in JODI Data m anagem ent Broader data accessibility Enhanced aw areness of statistical data I m proved oil data quality Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 31

THE JOI NT OI L DATA I NI TI ATI VE ( JODI ) Broader data accessibility Broader data accessibility kb Jam aica 9 4 0 Algeria 2 ,8 5 9 Kazakhstan 3 3 ,2 3 5 Argentina 4 ,4 0 7 Lithuania 1 ,9 8 6 Brunei Darussalam 2 ,2 7 3 Nicaragua 6 3 9 Brazil 2 5 ,6 4 3 Nigeria 1 0 ,2 1 2 Bulgaria 2 ,0 7 4 Peru 2 ,3 6 8 Chile 6 ,9 2 6 Philippines 9 ,6 7 6 Chinese Taipei 2 8 ,9 8 4 Rom ania 2 ,5 5 2 Costa Rica 4 6 4 Russian Federation 5 0 0 ,2 4 1 Cyprus 2 1 9 Saudi Arabia 1 6 7 ,6 4 4 Ecuador 9 ,0 3 7 South Africa 1 4 ,1 3 4 El Salvador 7 0 5 Venezuela 4 4 ,9 1 0 Reported Non-OECD crude oil stocks in 2004 = 873 mb Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 32