Projections and scenario analysis for climate and nitrogen action - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Projections and scenario analysis for climate and nitrogen action planning Allison Leach, Jennifer Andrews, Elizabeth Dukes & Yulia Rothenberg University of Virginia University of New Hampshire Sustainability Institute

Outline Part 1: Projections & scenarios • SIMAP background • Projection & scenario results • Excel templates Part 2: Integrated planning • Integrated planning strategies • Case study 1: University of Virginia and nitrogen • Case study 2: University of New Hampshire and climate

SIMAP integrates two tools • Developed in 2001 at UNH • Developed in 2009 at UVA • Excel and web version • Excel-based • Used by 20 institutions • Used by thousands of institutions • Completed pilot testing

Why a new tool? 1 1) Broader picture of environmental impacts 2 3) Single tracking tool Carbon Nitrogen Food Energy 3 2) Integrate with other Others in the future reporting platforms 3) Research about data 4 trends 3) UNHSI’s ability to 5 support the tool

How did we get here? Carbon 2004 2012 2001 2009 2014 2017

How did we get here? Nitrogen EPA grant NFT v1 launched NFT Leach senior Network thesis 2014-2017 2013 2017 2009 2014 2017 UVA N Pilot testing reduction goal by cohorts 1-3

Why do we care about nitrogen? Benefits Drawbacks Negative impacts to Necessary for life environmental & human health Synthetic fertilizer provides unlimited N supply for food Challenge: Optimize the use of nitrogen, while minimizing the negative impacts

What is a nitrogen footprint? A nitrogen footprint is the amount of reactive nitrogen released to the environment as a result of an entity’s resource consumption Energy 1 2 Food* *Food consumption and production

Carbon & nitrogen footprint of food Crops Meat & animal products Product footprints, Product footprints, normalized to beef normalized to beef 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Rice Pulses Poultry Pork Cheese Starchy roots Fruits Vegetables Nuts Wheat Oil Milk Fish Eggs Beef Leach et al. 2016 Carbon (kg CO 2 -eq) Nitrogen (g Nr) Heller & Keoleian 2014 Consistent trends across C & N footprints

Carbon and nitrogen footprint projections and scenarios N C

What are projections and scenarios? Projections Solutions/scenarios/projects • Estimate future emissions • Estimate effects of based on: management strategies on current or projected – Population growth footprint: – Planned construction – Changes in emissions – More! – Cost of scenarios Both are important for accurate and informed goal setting!

What methods have been used? Projections Solutions/scenarios/projects • Users entered detailed • Methods for projecting in the project* data in CCC CCC: – No “standard scenarios” – Linear • Metrics to view results in the – Normalized by students CCC: – Normalized by square feet – Impact on C footprint – Custom trends – Life-cycle cost of project – Variable trends – Payback time of the project – Net present value (life-cycle cost/savings per ton of C) CCC = Campus Carbon Calculator

In the CCC: Projections Emissions (t CO2e)

A - Purchase high In the CCC: Weighing Solutions capacity buses H - Co-fire biomass in steam plant L - Purchase wind power R – Natural Gas Blend in Steam Plant S - Install solar electric system

In the CCC: Weighing Solutions Net Present Value (2005 USD) Emissions Reductions (t CO2e)

In the CCC: Wedge diagram 120000 EcoLine-Landfill Gas Pipeline LEED Silver-Equivilant Building Standards Geotermal Heating in Gables Replace Oil Boilers with Wood Pellets Porduced on Campus Emissions (t CO2e) Networked Computer Sleep Mode 100000 Replace Electric Heating Systems BAS Upgrades Lighting Upgrades Absorption Chillers Solar Hot Water for Parsons 80000 Improved Motors Effeciencies Heat Distribution Insulationa Phillbrook Chiller Plant Conversion 20 Low Flow Fume Hoods 2 MT eCO 50 kW Wind Turbines 60000 50 kW Solar Panels 1 Degree Temp Set-back Centralized Summer Scheduling EcoLiving Coordinator Real-time Energy Monitoring in Residence Halls 40000 ENERGY STAR Refrigerator Requirement Power Down Campaign One Credit Required Sustainability Course CFLs For Students Transition All Diesel Vehicles to B20 20000 Staff Telecommuting Clean Fleet RailCat Infrequent Parking Permits Cat Currier - Emissions After Reductions 1990 2000 2010 2020 10% Below 1990 Emissions Year

Example at UNH 141 67,000 MT N MT CO 2 e N footprint (metric tons N) C footprint (1,000 MT CO 2 e) Food is key sector for Energy sectors are key sector nitrogen for carbon

PROJECTIONS: UNH’s C footprint in 2030 Assumes 2% growth rate for energy, linear population projection for food (0.7%) 90,000 +17% 80,000 Carbon footprint (MTCDE) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 -66%* 20,000 10,000 - 2014 2030 2030 baseline BAU scenarios *Relative to 2014 footprint BAU = Business As Usual *When compared to 2001 C baseline, reduction is 71%

PROJECTIONS: UNH’s N footprint in 2030 Assumes 2% growth rate for energy, linear population projection for food (0.7%) 180 +11% 160 Nitrogen footprint (MT N) 140 -15%* 120 100 80 60 40 20 - 2014 2030 BAU 2030 baseline scenarios *Relative to baseline (2014). BAU = Business As Usual *C footprint goal + feasible food scenarios shown

Next steps for projections and scenarios in SIMAP: • Conducted survey in spring/summer • More feedback welcome! • Beginning development • Beta testing in early 2019 What can you do in the meantime? Use our Excel scenario templates!

Food scenarios template simap@unh.edu

Energy scenarios template amp6cy@virginia.edu

Questions about projections and scenarios?

Part 2: Integrated planning strategies Alley Leach University of New Hampshire Sustainability Institute

Questions for proposing C+N goal 1. What other sustainability goals are in place or planned? 2. At what level should the goal be approved (e.g., governing body, university)? 3. How should the goal be framed (e.g., overall, scopes)? 4. What should the goal year be? 5. What should the % reduction goal be?

1. What other sustainability goals are in place or planned? Carbon & Climate Menus Commitments of Waste- Change Wise Food (EPA) Recovery Recycle- STARS Challenge mania (EPA) (PLAN) (AASHE) Real Food Buy Challenge Zero Local Waste (PLAN) Barnes et al. 2017 Colorado College & University of New Hampshire

2. At what level should the goal be approved? Lower 1. Research exercise: Internal stand-alone N commitment footprint calculations and/or goal NO GOAL 2. Grassroots action: No goal, but working with stakeholders to push reduction strategies 3. N benefits : No goal, but N benefits mentioned in other plans 4. Goal based on existing plans GOAL 5. New goal approved by governing body Higher commitment

3. How should the goal be framed? • Overall goal • A single reduction goal for the overall N footprint • Per capita/normalized goal • Reduction goal(s) normalized to campus users • Scope goals • Separate reduction goals for scope 1+2 (local) and scope 3 (not local) • Sector goals • Separate goals for energy, transit, food, etc.

Other questions to consider: 4. What should the baseline year and goal year be? 5. What should the % reduction goal be?

N The University of Virginia’s Nitrogen Action Plan Elizabeth Dukes

From goal setting to action plans at UVA Goal setting Action plans 1. Carbon (2009) 1. Greenhouse Gas (2017) 2. Nitrogen (2010) 2. Nitrogen (2018) 3. Water (2010) 3. Materials (2018) 4. Sustainable food (2018) 4. Materials (2014) 5. And more! 5. And more!

Sustainability Goals and Action Plans at the University of Virginia n a l P n o i t Materials c A ) N Action Plan ( n e g o r t i N Greenhouse Gas Action Plan Sustainable Food Action Plan

What’s Included in the N Action Plan? 1. Reductions from GHG Action Plan a) Purchased Electricity b) On-site utilities c) Transportation 2. Reductions from Sustainable Food Action Plan a) Increase vegetarian meals b) Increase local purchasing c) Opening plant-based café 3. Reductions from Materials Action Plan a) Composting waste 4. Other specific N scenarios a) Higher reductions in utilities sectors b) More stringent meat reduction strategies in food sectors c) Offsets for N

UVA’s Nitrogen Footprint: Action Plans Combined Food 300 -2% T&D Losses -11% -12% -16% -17% 250 Wastewater -25% Student 200 Commuting MT N Staff Commuting 150 Faculty Commuting 100 Purchased Electricity Fertilizer & 50 Animals Direct Transport 0 2010 2014 2016 BAU 2025 GHG Plan Sustainable Nitrogen On-Campus Food Plan Action Plan Stationary

Take-aways for UVA’s Nitrogen Action Plan 1. Current action plans strategies will allow UVA to reach 25% reduction goal. 2. Collaboration with multiple sectors at the university (dining, facilities, health system, etc.) will reduce N footprint and meet other goals!

A climate resilience plan at the University of New Hampshire Jennifer Andrews University of New Hampshire Sustainability Institute

Framing Resilience: “Five Capitals” Model