Climate Change in the West Kootenay Trends and Projections Overview - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate Change in the West Kootenay Trends and Projections

Overview Introduction to climate science Climate change over the last century Projections of future climate Probability – based risk management

Probability of The Bell Curve occurrence 30 24 21 18 6 1 Low Average High

Probability of Increase in Mean Temperature occurrence Historical Climate Cold Average Hot

Probability of Increase in Mean Temperature occurrence More hot weather Historical Climate More Record hot Less cold New weather weather Climate Cold Average Hot

Probability of Increase in Variance occurrence Historical Climate More hot More cold weather weather New Climate Cold Average Hot More record More record cold weather hot weather

Probability of Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance occurrence Historical Climate Cold Average Hot

Probability of Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance occurrence Much more hot weather Historical Climate and record hot weather Less change In cold New weather Climate Cold Average Hot

Northern Hemisphere Land Summer Temperature Summer temperatures In the Northern Hemisphere About 80% of summers are hot and extremely hot compared with mid-20 th century 1951-1980 Base period More frequent Extremely Cold Cold Normal Hot Extremely Hot Modified from New York Times, July 28, 2017

Trends and Variability Credit: Teddy TV and NRK

Average Annual Temperature over the last century 7.0 Temperature o C 6.0 5.0 Climate Change: 4.0 Long-term trends or major shifts in climate (multi-decadal to century-scale) 3.0

Spatial Variability * *

Spatial Variability * *

Spatial Variability * * *

Spatial Variability * *

Spatial Variability * * * *

Spatial Variability *

SW Basin Climate Stations Local Climate History

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature 3.0 2.0 1.0 Temperature o C 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 GRFRKS WARFLD CSTGR FAUQR CRSTN KASLO

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature 10.0 9.5 +1.5 o C/Century 9.0 Temperature o C 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 +2.8 o C/Century 6.5 6.0

SW Basin Mean Winter Temperature 1.0 +2.1 o C/Century 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 Temperature o C -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 +3.2 o C/Century -7.0 -8.0

SW Basin Mean Summer Temperature 21.0 +1.1 o C/Century 20.0 Temperature o C 19.0 18.0 17.0 +3.2 o C/Century 16.0

SW Basin Mean Annual Precipitation 1050 950 +226mm/Century 850 Precipitation (mm) 750 650 550 450 +152mm/Century 350

SW Basin Mean Seasonal Precipitation 300 Winter -38mm/Century Fall +100mm/Century 250 Precipitation (mm) 200 150 100 Spring +156mm/Century Summer -69mm/Century 50

2018 2017 1958 1922

SW Basin Temperature vs Rain (JJA) 320 270 1981 COOL & WET 1983 1993 220 1997 1982 1964 1976 Precipitation (mm) 1968 1999 1948 1954 1998 1978 1975 1989 1990 1941 1953 1995 1986 170 1992 1980 1963 1972 1991 1947 1923 1942 1915 1987 1955 1927 1957 1918 1937 1974 1971 1977 1984 1962 1965 1961 1924 1935 1958 1969 1956 1994 1943 1966 1939 1926 120 1952 1928 1936 1979 1959 1916 1988 1946 1970 1951 1950 1996 1985 1929 1933 HOT & DRY 1920 1931 1932 1925 1921 1930 1917 1944 1960 1949 1938 1919 70 1940 1973 1967 1922 1945 1934 20 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 Temperature ( o C)

SW Basin Temperature vs Rain (JJA) 320 270 1981 1983 1993 1997 220 1982 1964 1976 1968 Precipitation (mm) 1999 1948 1954 1998 1978 1975 1989 1990 1941 1953 1995 1986 170 1992 1980 1963 1972 1991 1947 1923 1942 1915 1987 1955 1927 1957 1918 1937 1974 1971 1977 1984 1962 1965 1961 1924 1935 1958 1969 1956 1994 1943 1966 1939 1926 1952 120 1928 1936 1979 1959 1916 1988 1946 1970 1951 1950 1996 1985 1929 1933 1920 1931 1932 1925 1921 1930 1917 1944 1960 1949 1938 1919 70 1940 1973 1967 1922 1945 1934 20 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 Temperature ( o C)

SW Basin Temperature vs Rain (JJA) 320 2012 270 1981 1983 1993 1997 220 1982 2005 1964 1976 1968 Precipitation (mm) 1999 1948 2004 1954 1998 1978 1975 1989 2013 1990 1941 1953 1995 1986 170 1992 1980 1963 1972 1991 1947 1923 1942 2011 1915 1987 1955 1927 1957 1918 1937 2001 2014 1974 1971 2008 2006 2009 1977 2016 1984 1962 1965 1961 1924 1935 1958 1969 1956 1994 1943 1966 1939 1926 1952 120 1928 1936 1979 1959 1916 2015 1988 1946 2000 1970 1951 1950 2010 2002 1996 1985 1929 1933 1920 1931 1932 1925 1921 2007 1930 1917 1944 1960 1949 1938 1919 2018 70 1940 1973 2003 1967 1922 2017 1945 1934 20 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.5 21.5 Temperature ( o C)

Fire Danger Rating – Aug 12, 2017

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 o C 9.0 Temperature o C 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0

SW Basin Mean Winter Temperature 1.0 0.0 -1.0 Temperature o C -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -4.5 o C -6.0 -7.0 -8.0

Kaslo Daily Precipitation – 1920-2013 120 June 19, 2013. Rainfall = 98.4 mm 20 th Century June Precipitation = 65.0 mm 100 June 19-21, 2013 Rainfall = 121.2 mm 80 (approx 2 x June monthly average in three days) 60 40 20 0

Global Emissions Scenarios to 2100 Business as usual 100 > +4 o C Emissions from fossil fuels 80 and cement (GtCO 2 /yr) 60 Paris Agreement pledges 2017 ~ +3 o C 40 Major emission reductions 20 ~ +2.5 o C Historical emissions 0 Paris Agreement goals ~ +2 o C -20

Why a few degrees matter 4-5 o C Last Glacial Maximum 2012 e.g. Heinemann et al., 2014 Annan et al., 2013 Shakun et al 2012 Annan & Hargreaves, 2015 Source: NASA Source: Zurich University of Applied Sciences

Nov 28, 2017 – “Although you will not see this much in the media, climate model projections have turned out to be exaggerated if not spectacularly wrong”

Berkeley Earth vs CMIP 5 - Mean Annual Temperature 1.25 1.25 0.75 0.75 Temperature ( o C) Temperature ( o C) 0.25 0.25 -0.25 -0.25 -0.75 -0.75

"The climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with sticks."

NASA Mean Annual Temperature 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 -0.30 -0.40 -0.50 Science, Vol. 189, No. 4201 (Aug. 8, 1975), pp. 460-463

US Global Change Research Program Wuebbles, D.J., et. Al., 2017

Castlegar Mean Annual Temperature RCP4.5 +2.6 o C Mean 2041-2070 11.3 o C Mean 1961-1990 8.8 o C

Castlegar Mean Annual Temperature RCP8.5 +3.2 o C Mean 2041-2070 12.0 o C Mean 1961-1990 8.8 o C

Castlegar Mean Annual Precipitation Mean 1961-1990 Mean 2041-2070 713mm 766-877mm +7% to +5%

Warmer Wetter Winters Winter Precipitation +9% to +8% Winter Temperature +2.8 to +3.2 o C

Hotter, Drier Summers Summer Temperature +2.5 to +3.5 o C Summer Precipitation -15% to -14%

Castlegar days per year above 25 o C Mean 2041-2070 106 days +36 Days Mean 1961-1990 70 days +30 Days Mean 2041-2070 99 days

More extreme precipitation Maximum 1-day precipitation +17% to +15%

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature Mean 7.7 o C 20 th Century climate 25 Frequency 15 5 8 7 13 11 12 6 9 10 o C

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature Mean 1961-1990 Baseline 7.7 o C 7.8 o C 10.4 o C 2.6 o C 20 th Century Projected climate during climate 25 2050s RCP 4.5 Frequency 20 15 10 5 8 7 13 11 12 6 9 10 o C

SW Basin Mean Annual Temperature 11.0 10.4 o C (RCP4.5) 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 Temperature o C 8.5 8.0 7.5 2071 +2.8 o C/Century 7.0 6.5

Basin Mean Annual Temperature Mean Annual Temperature Hotter, Drier Summers Warmer Wetter Winters More Extreme Precipitation 72

Basin Mean Annual Temperature Basin MAT = 1.5 o C Basin MAT = 4.9 o C 73 73

It’s real, it’s a problem, it’s coming - NOW WHAT?

The CRC Lcap software package takes the planning process beyond the general climate projections Lcap and facilitates quantitative, probability-based planning for specific business and/or community infrastructure and operations. Localized Climate Analysis and Prediction

City of Edmonton - Highest Maximum Temperature There is uncertainty around the range of model projections. 39 o C Which model should we choose? The worst choice is to assume stationarity

Edmonton -Model Selection – Hottest Day 1) All Models: Probability of exceeding 39 o C Probability (%) ‘No Regrets’ ‘Worst Case’

Edmonton Mean Annual Temperature Trend Variability

Edmonton -Model Selection – Hottest Day 1) Replication of observed variance 2) Replication of observed trend Historical Climate (AHCCD) MIROC5 RCP8.5 MPI ESM LR RCP8.5 Ensemble Median

Edmonton - Probability of Exceeding 39 o C 25 20 Probability (%) 15 10 Probability >39 o C exceeds 5% ~ 2055 - 2060 5 0 MIROC5 MPI_ESM_LR SYN PROB

NOW WHAT? START PLANNING! Lcap Localized Climate Analysis and Prediction