Toronto Local Advisory Committee Inaugural Meeting January 28, 2016
Presentation Outline • Role of the Local Advisory Committee • Regional Electricity Planning Process • Highlights from Regional Planning Activities in Toronto • Overview of Distribution System Plans • Longer Term Electricity Needs • Questions from Public 2
ROLE OF THE LOCAL ADVI SORY COMMI TTEE 3 3
Role of the Local Advisory Committee • Provide advice and recommendations on the development and implementation of the plan • Provide input and recommendations throughout the electricity planning process including the design of engagement approaches related to regional planning • Share information on local priorities to be considered in the procurement of conservation and supply side resources
Meetings are a Forum for Information Sharing • Updates on the status of regional planning • Working Group to provide information on identified options for meeting the region’s longer term electricity needs • A venue for a broader energy dialogue and a bridge between regional planning cycles
REGI ONAL ELECTRI CI TY PLANNI NG PROCESS 6
Background • A Working Group consisting of the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), Toronto Hydro and Hydro One Networks have been examining the electrical needs in Central Toronto since 2011 • A report, “Central Toronto Integrated Regional Resource Plan” (IRRP), was prepared and posted at the end of April 2015. It documents the findings and recommendations from that study • Needs in the rest of Toronto were assessed by a Hydro One led Working Group in 2015 – no additional needs requiring regional coordination were identified in this area • The reports fulfill the requirement for regional planning for the Region as mandated by the Ontario Energy Board • The recommendations lay the foundation for continued planning to address needs arising in the medium and long term 7
Key Participants in Ontario’s Electricity Sector Ministry of Energy System Operation, Planning and Regulation Procurement Ontario Energy Board Ontario Electricity System and its Customers Generation Distribution Transmission Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and other generators Local Distribution Companies (LDCs), e.g., Toronto Hydro Electric System Limited Hydro One, Great Lakes Power Transmission, Five Nations and others 8
Illustration of a Typical Electricity System 9
What is Regional Electricity Planning? • A process for identifying and addressing local electricity needs • Link between provincial bulk system planning (led by the IESO) and local distribution system planning (led by LDCs) • Objective of maintaining a safe, reliable and economic electricity supply • Operates in the context of existing criteria and frameworks – Applies the IESO’s reliability standards – Seeks to align with provincial/municipal planning policies, and where possible, with local interests • Either an integrated approach (considers conservation, generation, wires and other innovative solutions) led by the IESO, for studies with more expansive needs; or for studies with “wires only” solutions, led by Hydro One or other Transmitters 10
Context for Regional Electricity Planning
Regional Planning Focus • A key objective for regional planning is to ensure that the electricity system supplying an area has: – The capacity to supply the demand at peak levels (the highest anticipated demand level of the day/year), – Meets all reliability standards, and – Manages supply security risk, such that the system is resilient / capable of limiting the impact to customers of extreme events, such as the ice storm of 2014 12
CENTRAL TORONTO I NTEGRATED REGI ONAL RESOURCE PLAN 13 13
What’s Been Done, What we Heard • Toronto was the first region to fully implement the formal regional planning framework, introduced in 2013 • A number of communication tools were used throughout the development of the IRRP to engage with stakeholders and understand their preferences • Qualitative and quantitative research results indicate cost is a key issue: – “ Reduce rates ” was the leading answer to the question of what could be done to improve the system – Customers also looking for increased reliability – Focus Groups understood the need to replace aging infrastructure but suggested the system look within for savings and to harness “waste” before asking customers to pay more • This research was used to inform the development of the IRRP and the recommendations 14
Overview of Electricity Supply in Toronto (1) • Toronto is supplied by a diverse network of 230kV and 115kV transmission facilities • Two distinct electrical sub- areas: – Metro Toronto North (230 kV) – Central Toronto (115/230 kV) • Peak electricity demand about 5,000 MW (summer peaking) – 2,000 MW in Central Toronto • Canada’s largest city 4 th largest in North America – 15
Overview of Electricity Supply in Toronto (2) • Electricity supply to the City includes: – Several transmission links to the provincial grid – 550 MW Portlands Energy Centre – 140 MW Distributed Generation – 88 MW renewable generation contracted (FIT, microFIT, etc.) • Electricity conservation is a key component of meeting Toronto’s future needs – Conservation resources expected to offset nearly 40% of growth until 2036 16
Drivers of Near-term Needs • Continued growth and urban renewal – Record tall building development – Increasing density • New large transit projects • System reliability, security and resilience – Ensuring customers continue to receive a high level of service considering changing weather patterns • Replacement of aging infrastructure 17
Forecast for Electricity Demand in the Area 2,600 2,400 2,200 Peak Demand (MW) 2,000 1,800 Factors that can drive demand upward: Actual historic 1,600 • More economic growth peak demand • More people moving into the city 1,400 • Electrification of transportation 1,200 • Less than expected Conservation results 1,000 Factors that can bring demand down: 800 • Shifting to less energy intensive commerce 600 • Reduced pace of growth 400 • Increasing end-use efficiency 200 • More stringent building codes 0 Year 18
Growth and Urban Renewal • Intensification concentrated in pockets, mainly downtown and West 19
Near-term Projects Being Implemented 1. Conservation efforts and distributed These near-term projects maximize generation development are underway the capability of the existing (throughout Toronto) system, and support growth to the end of the decade 2. Special Protection Systems will provide additional supply security under low- probability events 3. Expansion of Runnymede Transformer Station (TS) and 115 kV upgrades will accommodate new community growth and the new Eglinton Crosstown LRT 4. Expansion of Horner TS will relieve 3 overloading at Manby TS and allow for future 5 growth in the area 2 5. Completing Phase Two of Copeland TS will 4 allow for connecting new customers in the downtown core 20
230 kV Transmission Supply to Downtown: Recommendation from April 2015 IRRP Driver • Growth in the downtown core and west Toronto, new transit Need • Ensure sufficient supply capacity on 230 kV Richview to Manby TS transmission system Recommendation • Implement conservation initiatives to manage 40 MW of peak demand growth • Monitor demand and upgrade corridor when necessary 21
230 kV Transmission Supply to Downtown: Changes Since April 2015 IRRP • Since the IRRP was completed, new information regarding Metrolinx’ plans to add a traction power station in the area to support electrification of Lakeshore West line (2020) • This project alone will add another 40 MW of new demand to be supplied by the Richview to Manby TS transmission (total need: 80 MW by 2020) • This will trigger the need for line reinforcement 22
Other Highlights from the Regional Plan • Maintaining high service levels • Building system/customer resilience given effects of climate change • Preparing the City to address needs in the long term timeframe 23
Needs Arising in the Long-Term • Infrastructure limits are projected to be reached as early as the mid to late 2020s – Transformers at Manby and Leaside – 115 kV transmission system supplying downtown • Capacity constraints occur during the summertime peak demand period • High degree of uncertainty with respect to the timing • Actions will be needed starting in the near term to manage these long term needs 24
Options for Meeting Long-Term Needs • Full achievement of government Conservation targets could help defer these needs by as much as 10 years • Distributed generation in the Central and downtown areas • Large scale generation facility • Additional transmission supply into downtown (Hearn station in the Portlands area was designed to accommodate an additional supply point) 25
Approaches to Addressing Longer-Term Needs Conservation & Small-Scale, Distributed Resources Community Self-Sufficiency Larger, Localized Final plan may have Wires elements from each Generation of the approaches Centralized Local Deliver Provincial Resources Resources 26
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