Presentation of Draft Findings 13 th July 2015 glhearn.com
Introduction • Paul McColgan ‒ Planning Associate Director glhearn.com
Structure • Context and Purpose • Methodology • HMA review • Housing Need • Housing Mix • Needs for Specific Groups • Questions glhearn.com
Context and Purpose
NPPF View • National Planning Policy Framework ‒ Meeting in full the objectively-assessed need for market and affordable housing in the housing market area where this would be consistent with achieving sustainable development ‒ Meeting need and demand for homes - being more responsive to “market signals” ‒ Housing remains a strategic issue – requiring local authorities to work together to plan to meet housing needs, and align with economic strategies glhearn.com
Planning for Housing • Councils working collaboratively to identify and then meet “full objectively assessed need for market and affordable housing in their housing market area” • Establishing housing need through the Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‒ How many homes? ‒ What mix of homes? ‒ Needs of different groups within the population • “Policy - off” assessment of objectively assessed need glhearn.com
Planning Practice Guidance • Government finalised Guidance on Assessment of Housing and Economic Development Needs in March 2014 • Indicates that starting point for assessing need is latest official Government household projections (now 2012-based) ‒ Sensitivity analysis where appropriate. • Overlaying other factors: ‒ Market signals - improve housing affordability ‒ Affordable housing needs ‒ Employment trends/ distribution …. do these suggest a need to increase housing supply in some areas? glhearn.com
Key Elements of SHMA • Objective Assessment of Housing Need (OAN) • Need for Different Types of Homes • Need of Specific Groups within Population ***It is not the housing target*** glhearn.com
SHMA Approach
Overview of Approach glhearn.com
Methodology Market Signals Unmet Needs from Evidence Other Areas SHMA Case for Process Adjustments to Improve Affordability Affordable Housing Needs Analysis Land Supply, Constraints, Sustainability Appraisal Testing Household Trend-based Formation Rates Objectively Housing Target Population & Assessed Housing in Plan Household Need Projections (OAN) Testing Migration Trends Alternative Economic Growth Aligning Housing & Migration Scenarios Prospects Economic Strategy glhearn.com
Housing Market Geographies
Housing Market Areas “ A housing market area is a geographical area defined by household demand and preferences for housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places where people live and work. It might be the case that housing market areas overlap. The extent of the housing market areas identified will vary, and many will in practice cut across various local planning authority administrative boundaries.” - Planning Practice Guidance glhearn.com
Defining Housing Market Areas • Planning Practice Guidance identifies three sources: ‒ House prices and rates of change in prices ‒ Household migration and search patterns ‒ Contextual data such as travel to work glhearn.com
Practical Issues “One problem with drawing boundaries is that if each local planning authority were to draw its own boundaries, there would be almost as many HMAs as local authorities. This is because the largest migration flows in and out of any individual authority are usually those linking it with immediately adjacent authorities. But each of these adjacent authorities will probably find that their largest migration flows link them to their immediate neighbours, and the chain continues. Thus if each local authority works independently to define an optimal HMA, each authority may draw a different map, centred on its own area.” PAS Technical Advice Note: June 2014 glhearn.com
Existing National Research CURDS 2010 • Strategic (Framework) Housing Market Areas ‒ Based on 77.5% commuting self- containment • Local Housing Market Areas ‒ Embedded within these ‒ Based on 50% migration self-containment glhearn.com
Recognising London’s Influence Commuting to Inner London glhearn.com
Recognising London’s Influence House Prices glhearn.com
A Practical Way Forward • Recognising influence of London ‒ Out migration from London ‒ Duty to Cooperate • SHMA Studies which interrogate dynamics in local markets • Inter-connectedness / overlapping market areas ‒ Influences from adjoining areas near boundaries • ‘Best fit’ to local authority boundaries glhearn.com
Migration • Key migration flows are principally with adjoining authorities (per 1,000 population) ‒ Between Hounslow – Ealing / Richmond (8.5, 6.6) ‒ Between Spelthorne and Runnymede (5.6) ‒ Elmbridge and Kingston (5.5) ‒ Woking and Guildford (5.0) ‒ Runnymede and Woking (5.0) ‒ Spelthorne and Hounslow (4.4) ‒ Woking and Surrey Heath (3.9) glhearn.com
Net Migration Patterns glhearn.com
Where Residents Work Workplace of Runnymede & Spelthorne Residents glhearn.com
Where Workers Live Homes of those working in Runnymede & Spelthorne glhearn.com
Conclusions • Strong level of commuting and migration links across authorities in NE and W Surrey • Movement out from (and commuting London back in to) London Kingston and • Five clusters of links emerge looking Spelthorne Elmbridge Rushmoor across Surrey and to surrounding areas Runnymede Surrey Epsom & E Heath Mole Valley • Hart Interplays both within and across areas Woking Reigate & B (including with London) – porous Guildford Tandridge boundaries Waverley • We have examined housing need for Spelthorne and Runnymede glhearn.com
Considering Demographic Housing Need
Projections – Key Issues • Starting from the latest national projections ‒ 2012 Household Projections ‒ 2012 Sub-National Population Projections • Sensitivity Analysis ‒ Migration ‒ Household Formation Rates • Overlaying Economic Forecasts • Separating supply issues from assessment of need • Supply shortfalls as a duty to cooperate issue • Recognising labour market extending across London into Home Counties glhearn.com
Demographic Projections • “Projections do not predict the future – they roll forward what’s happened in the past” • Figures are particularly sensitive to: ‒ Migration ‒ Household formation rates • Impacts of international migration and the recession on household formation • Starting point should be latest official population and household projections glhearn.com
Demographic Projections • ONS 2012-Based Sub-National Population Projections • CLG 2012-based Household Projections • Updated for Mid-Year Estimates in 2013 • Prepared in May prior to 2014 MYE glhearn.com
ONS 2012-Based Population Projections - Spelthorne • ONS 2012-based projections in line with shorter term trends and above longer term trends 120,000 115,000 110,000 105,000 Population 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 Trend (2001-13) Trend (2008-13) 2012-based Linear (Trend (2001-13)) Linear (Trend (2008-13)) glhearn.com
ONS 2012-Based Population Projections - Runnymede • ONS 2012-based projections sat below short term trends post 2025 and above longer term trends 105,000 100,000 95,000 Population 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Trend (2001-13) Trend (2008-13) 2012-based Linear (Trend (2001-13)) Linear (Trend (2008-13)) glhearn.com
Sensitivity Analysis • 2012-based SNPP reasonable demographic projection when taking account of past trends in population growth • However, we have undertaken sensitivity analysis to look at longer term migration rates and Un-attributable Population Change • Notably high UPC in Runnymede • Longer term migration rates result in an overall need which is around 40 dwellings per annum less than official projections • However this increases housing need in Runnymede (+120) and reduces it in Spelthorne (-150) • Adjusting for UPC result in an overall need which is around 240 dwellings per annum official projections • This increases housing need in Runnymede (-275) and increases it in Spelthorne (+40) glhearn.com
Sensitivity Analysis 220,000 210,000 200,000 Population 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 Trend (2001-13) Trend (2008-13) 2012-based 12_year migration UPC adjustment Linear (Trend (2001-13)) Linear (Trend (2008-13)) glhearn.com
Recommend
More recommend
