Chandler Duncan Economic Development Research Group, Inc. Presentation, June 23, 2016
Topics 1. Overview of Sources of Impact 2. Describing the Transit Market 3. The Efficiency Impact of Transit 4. Strategic Issues 5. Potential Investment Impacts 6. Discussion & Questions 2
Ways Transit Affects the Economy Outlays Made by Transit Provider: Money spent operating transit supports jobs, income and business sales in the economy. Markets Supported by Transit Use: Goods and services made and used in the Hampton Roads economy that involve either a worker or consumer making a transit trip. Relative Efficiency of Transit over Other Modes: The impact of money saved because transit is less expensive and more reliable than competing modes. Transit as an Asset for Regional Development: Transit as a resource for attracting and retaining businesses and workers, and making the business environment attractive. 3
How Impacts Occur: Example John & Jane own one car, they cannot both share the car to commute to their ideal jobs. Transit enables Jane to drive, and John takes the bus to a job where he enables his employer to make and use $150,000 worth of additional product each year. After paying its suppliers, the firm retains $75,000 in earnings, of which it pays the smith family $40,000 in wages. Business Output = The $150,000 worth of products Value Added/GDP = The $75,000 the firm retains after cost of goods sold Income = The $40,000 in wages that John earns Employment = The one job that John works 4
How Impacts Are Reported 5
Annual Effects of Transit Spending Annual Operating Expenses: $100.4 million in 2015 supported over $150 million in Output (Sales) and 1,800 jobs. Recent Capital Investments: $7.8 million annually (FY13-15) supporting an average of $2.0 million in regional output and 12 jobs. Type of Employment Labor Income Value Added/GDP Business Outlay Output Operating 1,809 $89 Million $59.6 Million $155.5 Million Capital 12 $665 Thousand $978 Thousand $ 2 Million Total 1,821 $89.7 Million $69.6 Million $157.5 Million 6
Markets Supported by Transit Workers commuting to jobs using transit in Hampton Roads support $1.5 billion in regional output and a total of 20,351 jobs including multiplier effects. Consumers using transit to access shopping, recreation, eating out, and access to health services supports $93 million of spending, resulting in a total of $149.9 million in output and nearly 1,200 jobs. Type of Employment Labor Income Value Added/GDP Business Outlay Output Labor 20,351 $548.1 Million $896.2 Million $1.5 Billion Market Consumer 1,197 $71.6 Million $95.6 Million $ 149.8 Market Million 7
Relative Efficiency of Transit Savings Type In addition to saving vehicle Value ($M) mileage, transit saves its users significant time spent Vehicle Operating Costs $262.56 Time Savings $743.81 on carpools, walking, or Safety & Environmental $175.14 foregone activities. Total $1,181.51 Employment Labor Value Added Output Income ($M) ($M) ($M) 2015 125 $7 $17 $21 2015- 123 average $203 $460 $577 2040 annual cumulative cumulative cumulative 8
Strategic Role of Transit Placemaking: Transit plays a significant role in attracting workers and businesses to urban environments like Downtown Norfolk. Virginia Beach Town Center and Peninsula Town Center will require higher density transit to realize similar patterns. Call Center Industry: Rapidly developing industry in Hampton Roads Economy is particularly Transit Dependent. Faneuil and IBEX report much higher transit use than regional trends, with up to one third of employees either using or wanting to use transit. Shipyards: Core basic industry to Hampton Roads with significant current and projected parking and plant expenses saved due to transit availability. 9
Strategic Role of Transit Health Care: 10% of regional workforce is employed in health related fields. While transit use is representative of the overall transit market, some essential occupations of health care establishment are highly transit dependent to ensure food service, nursing and facility maintenance. Higher Education: Like health care, higher education establishments rely on transit commuting for essential functions. Some institutions such as Tidewater Community College have student populations highly dependent on the GoPass program (1,200 GoPass 365 sales in 2016 as well as 1,500 among other educational institutions). Hospitality & Tourism: Tourist establishments depend on transit workers for essential functions. 10
Investment Scenarios LRT – Newtown Road to Town Center LRT – Newtown Road to Oceanfront (via Laskin) 11
Investment Scenarios LRT – Naval Station Norfolk Based on Naval Station Norfolk Transit Extension Study Extends light rail service around the Western Alignment and Eastern B connecting Ghent neighborhood, ODU, and NSN along Hampton Boulevard on the west side. Travels along Military Highway and W. Little Creek Road on the east side. 12
Investment Scenarios BRT – Peninsula Envisions significantly expanded bus and high capacity transit (BRT) services on the Peninsula. 13
Impact of Further Investment Type of Outlay Employment GDP Impact Business Output (Jobs) ($ Millions) LRT – Town 126-135 $436-$465 $1,156-$1,208 Center LRT Oceanfront 312-327 $1,167-$1,203 $ 3,052-$3,154 LRT - NSN 454-466 $1,858-$1,896 $4,526-$4,591 BRT - Peninsula 339-344 $1,411-$1,427 $3,440-$3,446 14
Questions/Discussion 15
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