Capacity Outputs Working Group NTS-GDN interaction , 10 February 2011
Update on Output Measures • Capacity Workgroup III • GDN’s Capacity Output Measures proposed: • Primary • Demand (Diversified & Undiversified) • Point to Point Distribution Capability • Secondary • Capacity Tools & Network Interactions • Where available, illustrative Output Measures now populated • Undiversified DM demand data being collated by xoserve (to follow) • Current point to point capability • Agreed methodology, next steps data collation & calculation • Historical measure not readily available • Inconsistently calculated / collected amongst GDNs
Output Measures In Development Primary Measures: Delivery of future peak Benefits: day demands Peak Day undiversified 1. Total Daily Metered Load 1.Determined by Shipper bookings a. Supply Point SOQ 2.Aligned with transportation charges b. DM Supply Point SHQ 1. Methodologies consistent across industry Peak Day diversified (TD76) 2. Total Demand ( Diversified ) 2. Assumptions and interpretation unique to a. by LDZ GDN’s own views Capability to meet 1 in 20 Peak Demand 1.Reflects current dissemination of gas into 3. Point to Point Distribution Capacity highly complex lower pressure tiers a. ∑ Capacity of NTS / LTS PRI’s 2.Capability floats relative to demand and (MCM/d or GWh/d) available pressures 3.Consistent with DNO measures 4.GDN’s to develop consistent methodology
Output Measures In Development Benefits: Secondary Measures Customers 1. Connected Customers 1. Tracks scale of network over time a. ∑ Number of Supply P oints 2. Tracks the understanding of changes in b. ∑ Number of Smart Meter Point References dynamic behaviours Embedded Supplies 1. Tracks changes from the historic top down 2. Embedded Entry Points (Natural/Bio/Syn/CBM/Shale) dissemination of supplies a. Number of connections b. Connected capacity (Aggregate) NTS Interface 1. Tracks top down gas flows and NTS 3. Flat Exit Rights a. ∑ OCS flat rights (MCM/d or GWh/d) dependency Diurnal Management 4. Measures of diurnal tools 1. Tracks changes in consumer behaviours a. ∑ OCS flex rights and diversity of tools in place b. LTS Linepack capability c. LDZ storage capability d. 3 rd Party Storage capability
Primary Measure Peak Day - Demand Forecast • Peak Day undiversified • Total Daily Metered Load a. Supply Point SOQ b. ∑ DM Supply Point SHQ To Follow
Primary Measure Peak Day - Demand Forecast – South East SGN South East Peak day Demand Comparison 900 800 700 600 2010 Forecast (thousands) 2009 Forecast 500 MWh 2008 Forecast 2007 Forecast 400 2006 Forecast 2005 Forecast 300 200 100 0 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year For illustrative purposes only
Primary Measure Peak Day - Demand Forecast - South SGN South Peak Day Demand Comparison 600 500 400 2010 Forecast (thousands) 2009 Forecast MWh 2008 Forecast 300 2007 Forecast 2006 Forecast 2005 Forecast 200 100 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Year For illustrative purposes only
Primary Measure Peak Day - Demand Forecast - Scotland SGN Scotland Peak Day Demand Comparison 600 500 400 2010 Forecast (thousands) 2009 Forecast MWh 2008 Forecast 300 2007 Forecast 2006 Forecast 2005 Forecast 200 100 0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Year For illustrative purposes only
Primary Measure Point to Point Capability GDN Networks Offtake/ PRI Utilisation Inlet Outlet Maximum Capacity Installation Installation Inlet Outlet Pressure Pressure Capacity of Determined Type Pressure Pressure Assumptions Assumptions Site By Name Volumetric Minimum System Assured determined by Pressure from OCS Peak 1:20 Current Source1 Offtake 45 bar NTS 38/22 bar analysis 200 Kscmh Metering Limits Maximum Operating Pressure and PRI feed to Minimum PRISM Analysis below 7 bar System Design Feeds 5 bar using Minimum PRI 2 network 38/10 bar Pressure 5 bar System 10,000 scmh Inlet Pressure To be developed for the July Business Plan Capacity Utilisation XXXXber 2011 Expected Expected Flow Maximum % Utilisation Maximum % Utilisation Comments Assumptions Flow Year 1 Flow Year X Increase in flow due to Metering re- Interruption rang/ upgrade 150 scmh 75% 210 Kscmh 105% Reform required Maximum Flow occurs at Minimum 8000 scmh 80% 8500 scmh 85% Inlet Pressure For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures - Customers Number of Domestic Supply Points SGN Domestic Supply Points 3.0 2.5 2.0 Numbers (millions) Scotland 1.5 South South East 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures - Customers Number of Non-Domestic Supply Points SGN I & C Supply Points 50 45 40 35 30 (thousands) Numbers Scotland 25 South South East 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures - Customers Total Number of Supply Points SGN & LDZ Supply Point Totals 7.0 6.0 5.0 Scotland 4.0 Numbers (millions) South South East SGN Total 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Year For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures - Customers Number of Smart Metered Supply Points • Data to be provided when available For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures Number of Embedded Entry Point Enquiries SGN Embedded Entry Enquiries 18 16 14 12 Numbers Landfill 10 Coalbed Methane 8 Anaerobic Digestion 6 4 2 0 South East South Scotland LDZ For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures Number of Completed Embedded Entry Points SGN Completed Embedded Entry Points 7 6 5 Landfill Numbers 4 Coalbed Methane Anaerobic Digestion LNG 3 Onshore Gas Field 2 1 0 South East South Scotland LDZ For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures Embedded Entry Points, Connected Capacity SGN Embedded Entry Points, Connected Capacity 250 200 Landfill Coalbed Methane 150 ksmc/h Anaerobic Digestion LNG 100 Onshore Gas Field 50 0 South East South Scotland LDZ For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures OCS Flat Capacity Booking SGN Flat Capacity 800 700 600 500 South East Gwh/day 400 South Scotland 300 200 100 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Year For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures OCS Flex Capacity Booking SGN Flex Requirement 50 45 40 35 30 Gwh/day South East 25 South Scotland 20 15 10 5 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Year For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures LDZ Linepack Capability SGN LTS Linepack Capability 6.0 5.0 4.0 South East mscm 3.0 South Scotland 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Year For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures LDZ Storage Capacity SGN Holders & HP Storage Capability 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 South East mscm 2.0 South Scotland 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Year For illustrative purposes only
Secondary Measures Total LDZ Storage Capability Total SGN Storage (Linepack, Holders & HP) Capability 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 South East 10.0 mscm South Scotland 8.0 SGN Total 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Year For illustrative purposes only
Questions For illustrative purposes only
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