Public Private Partnership Industry Forum Public Private Partnership Industry Forum Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study Preliminary Traffic and Revenue Study (January 24, 2007) (January 24, 2007) Proposed Proposed Mid-Currituck Bridge Mid-Currituck Bridge May 7, 2008 Study Overview Study Overview � Preliminary Study � Preliminary Study – completed January 2007 � Preliminary Study – – completed January 2007 completed January 2007 � Not intended for use in support of project financing � Not intended for use in support of project financing Not intended for use in support of project financing � � Conducted Origin � Conducted Origin- -Destination Travel Surveys Destination Travel Surveys � Conducted Origin-Destination Travel Surveys � Developed Travel Demand Model Developed Travel Demand Model � Developed Travel Demand Model � � Land Use Plans from Currituck and Dare Land Use Plans from Currituck and Dare � Land Use Plans from Currituck and Dare � � Tested Toll Rate Sensitivity � Tested Toll Rate Sensitivity Tested Toll Rate Sensitivity � � Examined Seasonal Tolling Due to Potential Examined Seasonal Tolling Due to Potential � Examined Seasonal Tolling Due to Potential � Travel Market Travel Market Travel Market � 40 40- -Year Revenue Forecast Year Revenue Forecast � � 40-Year Revenue Forecast 1
Proposed Mid-Currituck Bridge Proposed Mid-Currituck Bridge 2005 – 2006 Traffic Counts 2005 – 2006 Traffic Counts 19.3 2
Traffic on Wright Memorial Bridge Traffic on Wright Memorial Bridge 1,200 2005 2006 2007 1,000 * - Indicates full month data not available. Traffic (Thousands) 800 600 400 200 * * 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Travel Demand Survey Travel Demand Survey � August and September 2006 August and September 2006 � August and September 2006 � � One Weekday and One Weekend Day for Each One Weekday and One Weekend Day for Each � One Weekday and One Weekend Day for Each � Survey Period Survey Period Survey Period � Mail Mail- -back surveys distributed at red light back surveys distributed at red light � Mail-back surveys distributed at red light � � 19% return in August 19% return in August � 19% return in August � � 11% return in September 11% return in September � 11% return in September � 3
Survey Questions Survey Questions � Origin and Destination of Trip Origin and Destination of Trip � Origin and Destination of Trip � � Trip Purpose Trip Purpose � Trip Purpose � � Trip Frequency Trip Frequency � Trip Frequency � � Vehicle Occupancy Vehicle Occupancy � Vehicle Occupancy � � Vehicle Type and Registration Vehicle Type and Registration � Vehicle Type and Registration � � Resident vs. Visitor Resident vs. Visitor � Resident vs. Visitor � � Frequency of Visits Frequency of Visits � Frequency of Visits � � Season for Visits Season for Visits � Season for Visits � Survey Residency Status Survey Residency Status Summer Weekday Summer Weekend 22% 42% 58% 78% Resident Visitor Non-Summer Weekday Non-Summer Weekend 33% 40% 67% 60% 4
Survey Summer Trip Purpose Survey Summer Trip Purpose Resident Weekday Weekend Day 43.7% 42.6% 12.9% 8.7% 19.8% 4.0% 1.0% 24.3% 6.5% 11.1% 12.2% 12.7% 0.5% Tourist Weekday Weekend Day 36.9% 89.4% 34.3% 6.0% 4.6% 25.8% To / From Work Company Business Personal Business School Shopping Social / Recreational Begin / End Vacation Stay Survey Vacation Frequency Survey Vacation Frequency 59.5% 14.2% 10.8% 4.1% 8.9% 2.5% First Time Visitor Twice Per year Once Per Year Four Times Per Year More than Four Times Per Year Three Times Per Year 5
Survey Summer Weekend Origins and Destinations Survey Summer Weekend Origins and Destinations Southern Shores 10% 31% Duck 15% Pine Island Corolla Four Wheel Drive Other Outer Banks 10% 7% Nearby Mainland 10% 14% Out of State 3% Time & Distance Savings with Mid-Currituck Bridge Time & Distance Savings with Mid-Currituck Bridge 35 51 89 29 42 56 21 30 33 14 20 25 Legend 21 Miles 30 33 Minutes (2025) Minutes (2013) 6
2013 Toll Sensitivity Curves 2013 Toll Sensitivity Curves Summer Weekday Summer Weekend Day 35,000 140,000 30,000 120,000 Daily Revenue at Toll Plaza Daily Revenue at Toll Plaza 25,000 100,000 Selected Passenger Vehicle Selected Passenger Vehicle 20,000 80,000 Opening Year Toll Rates Opening Year Toll Rates 15,000 60,000 10,000 40,000 5,000 20,000 0 0 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 Toll Rate Toll Rate Non-Summer Weekday Non-Summer Weekend Day 50,000 25,000 Daily Revenue at Toll Plaza Daily Revenue at Toll Plaza 40,000 20,000 30,000 15,000 Selected Passenger Vehicle Selected Passenger Vehicle 10,000 20,000 Opening Year Toll Rates Opening Year Toll Rates 10,000 5,000 0 0 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 Toll Rate Toll Rate Passenger Car Toll Rate Assumptions Passenger Car Toll Rate Assumptions Summer Summer Non Non- -summer summer 2013 2013 $8.00 $8.00 $6.00 $6.00 2015 2015 $9.00 $9.00 $7.00 $7.00 2020 $10.00 $8.00 2020 $10.00 $8.00 2025 $12.00 $9.00 2025 $12.00 $9.00 7
Key Assumptions Key Assumptions � Mid Mid- -Currituck Bridge open by 2013. Currituck Bridge open by 2013. � Mid-Currituck Bridge open by 2013. � � No Competing Bridge, Ferry or Significant Road Improvements Will No Competing Bridge, Ferry or Significant Road Improvements Will Be Be � � No Competing Bridge, Ferry or Significant Road Improvements Will Be Completed During the Project Period. Completed During the Project Period. Completed During the Project Period. � Economic Growth Will be as Estimated in the Currituck and Dare C Economic Growth Will be as Estimated in the Currituck and Dare County ounty � � Economic Growth Will be as Estimated in the Currituck and Dare County Land Use Plans. Land Use Plans. Land Use Plans. � Induced Traffic Can Be Expected Due to Implementation of Major N Induced Traffic Can Be Expected Due to Implementation of Major New ew � � Induced Traffic Can Be Expected Due to Implementation of Major New Bridge and Improved Accessibility. Bridge and Improved Accessibility. Bridge and Improved Accessibility. � Both Cash and Electronic Tolling Offered; Majority of Users Expe Both Cash and Electronic Tolling Offered; Majority of Users Expected to cted to � Both Cash and Electronic Tolling Offered; Majority of Users Expected to � Use Electronic Payment. Use Electronic Payment. Use Electronic Payment. � Opening Year Toll Rates and Future Increases as Opening Year Toll Rates and Future Increases as Discussed in Report. Discussed in Report. � Opening Year Toll Rates and Future Increases as Discussed in Report. � Estimated 2013, 2015, and 2025 Traffic Estimated 2013, 2015, and 2025 Traffic Summer Weekday Summer Weekend Day 3,300 13,500 3,700 15,200 5,000 Currituck 19,200 Currituck Sound Sound 0,000 2013 Toll Bridge 0,000 2015 Mainline Toll Plaza 0,000 2025 Non-Summer Weekday Non-Summer Weekend Day 3,000 5,800 3,200 6,600 Currituck Currituck 4,100 8,800 Sound Sound Note: 1. All traffic volumes shown represent thousands of vehicles. 2. Includes induced traffic. 8
Traffic Market Share - 2025 Traffic Market Share - 2025 Summer Weekday Summer Weekend Day 69% 19% 88% 81% 31% 12% Mid-Currituck Bridge Wright Memorial Bridge Non-Summer Weekday Non-Summer Weekend Day 70% 19% 87% 81% 30% 13% Estimated Annual Revenue (Thousands) Estimated Annual Revenue (Thousands) Total Revenue Total Revenue Year Year 2013 2013 $7,023 $7,023 2020 $19,165 2020 $19,165 2030 2030 $29,588 $29,588 9
Annual Gross Revenue Forecasts Annual Gross Revenue Forecasts Proposed Mid-Currituck Bridge Proposed Mid-Currituck Bridge $20 LEGEND $18 Summer Weekend Days Gross Toll Revenue (Millions) Non-Summer Weekdays $15 Non-Summer Weekend Days Summer Weekdays $13 $10 $8 $5 $3 $0 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 Year Summary and Conclusions Summary and Conclusions � Implementation of Mid Implementation of Mid- -Currituck Bridge Is Critical for Traffic Reasons. Currituck Bridge Is Critical for Traffic Reasons. � Implementation of Mid-Currituck Bridge Is Critical for Traffic Reasons. � � Distance and Time Savings Alone May Be Sufficient Reason to Distance and Time Savings Alone May Be Sufficient Reason to � � Distance and Time Savings Alone May Be Sufficient Reason to Construct This Bridge Construct This Bridge Construct This Bridge � Tolls Can Be Relatively High Due to Unique Nature of the Bridg Tolls Can Be Relatively High Due to Unique Nature of the Bridge e � � Tolls Can Be Relatively High Due to Unique Nature of the Bridge Location and the Potential Toll Customer Market. Location and the Potential Toll Customer Market. Location and the Potential Toll Customer Market. � Seasonal Pricing and Other Pricing Mechanisms Should be Consid � Seasonal Pricing and Other Pricing Mechanisms Should be Considered Seasonal Pricing and Other Pricing Mechanisms Should be Considered ered � to Market the Toll Bridge to Market the Toll Bridge to Market the Toll Bridge � This Bridge Could Provide an Important Additional Evacuation This Bridge Could Provide an Important Additional Evacuation Route. Route. � This Bridge Could Provide an Important Additional Evacuation Route. � 10
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