Post EU elections analysis Paolo Nicoletti Senior Partner, NOVE paolo.nicoletti@nove.eu
GUESS THE NUMBERS And the winners are… 51% Voter turnout 75% New ALDE MEPs 75 Greens/EFA 173 Eurosceptics 471 New MEPs
WHAT WILL WE TALK ABOUT ? • A fragmented European Parliament • A contract for Europe ? • Top jobs: a test for majority building • Things to know • And the policies…
A FRAGMENTED EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT A Greener or Eurosceptic assembly?
A LOOK AT THE NEW PARLIAMENT +38 -38 +23 -12 -33 +13 +21 -14
A NEW ALDE: RENEW EUROPE COUNTRY DELEGATION SIZE 21 FRANCE 16 UK 8 ROMANIA Guy Verhofstadt Mark Rutte 8 SPAIN ALDE Group President Prime Minister of Netherlands 7 GERMANY 6 CZECH REPUBLIC 6 NETHERLANDS 5 DENMARK Emanuel Macron Charles Michel, 4 BELGIUM Prime minister of Belgium President of France
“GREEN WAVE” COUNTRY DELEGATION SIZE 24 GERMANY 12 FRANCE 11 UK 3 BELGIUM 3 CZECH REPUBLIC 3 NETHERLANDS 3 SPAIN
A “GREENER” S&D? COUNTRY DELEGATION SIZE 20 SPAIN 19 ITALY 16 GERMANY Udo Bullmann Pedro Sanchez S&D Group President Prime Minister of Spain 10 UK 9 PORTUGAL 9 ROMANIA 8 POLAND 6 NETHERLANDS Iratxe Garcia Perez Antonio Costa Prime Minister of Portugal S&D President contender A total number of “Green” MEPs ~80
EUROSCEPTICS, WORKING TOGETHER? IT 28 UK 29 PL 26 HU 13 173 FR 22 IT 14 UK 4 EUROSCEPTIC DE 11 MEPS 73 43 44 13
EUROSCEPTICS: QUARANTINE? “WHAT WE’RE CLEAR ABOUT IS THAT WE’RE GOING TO DRAW A RED LINE AGAINST EUROSCEPTIC AND FAR- RIGHT POLITICAL FORCES IN THE PARLIAMENT.” “ONE THING IS CLEAR, EPP WILL NOT COOPERATE WITH EXTREMES.”
A CONTRACT FOR EUROPE? A greener coalition for the next 5 years?
GOVERNING CONTRACT A 4-party coalition… ENVIRONMENT WG Sigfried Muresan (RO) & Peter Liese (DE) …with 5 priorities areas: Kathleen Van Brempt (BE) & Eric Andrieu (FR) 1. ENVIRONMENT Chris Davies (UK) & 2. ECONOMY Pascal Canfin (FR) 3. INNOVATION 4. RULE OF LAW Yannick Jadot (FR) & Bas Eickhout (NL) 5. FOREIGN POLICY
GOVERNING CONTRACT Timeline Extraordinary Draft CoP with EUCO First Plenary Agreement 18 June 2 July 12-14 June Group EUCO Summit Leaders 21 June agreement 17 June
TOP JOBS A test for a majority building
IT TAKES MORE THAN TWO TO TANGO Delicate balance of power in European Council
NEW MAJORITY IN THE COMMISSION ? 2014 2019 EUCO COMMISSION EUCO COMMISSION 14 14 9 ? 8 8 7 ? 5 5 7 ? 1 1 2 ?
THINGS TO KNOW More than 60% of MEPs are new, so…
ENVI COMMITTEE 2014-2019 2019-2024 • Leadership : ENVI Vice-Chairs not number possible EPP 21 17 re-elected + new Chair S&D 18 14 ALDE 6 10 • Coordinators : EPP, S&D, Greens/EFA 6 7 Greens/EFA, GUE/NGL are back ECR 7 6 GUE 5 3 • Composition : 20% likely to return 2 6 ENF (ID) EFDD 3 5 NI 1 1 TOTAL 69 69
VETERANS OF THE ENVI COMMITTEE JADWIGA WIŚNIEWSKA, BAS EICKHOUT, GREENS, SIMONA BONAFÉ, S&D NILS TORVALDS, ALDE FI ECR, PL NL IT MARGRETE AUKEN, ADINA VALEAN, EPP, RO MIRIAM DALLI, S&D, MT PETER LIESE, EPP, DE GREENS, DK
ITRE COMMITTEE 2014-2019 2019-2024 • Leadership: EPP, ALDE, S&D number possible EPP 20 16 back S&D 17 14 ALDE 7 9 • Coordinators : EPP, S&D, Greens/EFA 5 7 ALDE, ECR are back ECR 6 6 GUE 4 3 • Composition : 40% likely to ENF (ID) 3 5 EFDD 3 5 return NI 1 1 TOTAL 66 66
VETERANS OF THE ITRE COMMITTEE DAN NICA, S&D, RO MORTEN HELVEG PATRIZIA TOIA, S&D, IT JERZY BUZEK, EPP, PL PETERSEN, ALDE, DK ZDISLAW CHRISTIAN EHLER, EPP, REINHARDT FREDERIK FERDERLEY, KRASNODEBSKI, ECR, PL DE BUTIKOFER, S&D, DE ALDE SE
AND THE POLICIES… More of the same or new challenges?
A RENEWED AMBITION? “I DON’T THINK THAT ALL IN ALL WE DID WELL. MAINLY BECAUSE AT THE START OF MY MANDATE, WE WERE FIXING TARGETS” RED II EED HDV- Vans HDV – LDV Lorries Commission 27% 30% 30% 30% 30% Parliament 35% 40% 40% 35% 40% Council 27% 27% 30% 30% 35% Outcome 32% 32.5% 31% 30% 37.5%
ACCELERATION OF EXISTING TRENDS Renewed Industrial Policy by end of 2019 ‘Greening’ of funding and economic policies
TAKEAWAYS A new dynamic (4-party coalition) in the European Parliament to understand A large group of newcomers to educate Emerging new and stronger national interests to consider
Recommend
More recommend
