Latest numbers on COVID-19 in the UK – 4 December 2020 Positive signs everywhere, except Wales. Coming out of restrictions is hard. 1. Cases & lockdowns 2. Hospitalisations 3. Deaths 4. Tiers, test and trace & mas testing With many thanks to Catherine Finnecy for help in collating and understanding the data.
Number of new UK confirmed COVID-19 cases by reported date (people who have had a positive test) New confirmed cases 7-day rolling average Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – UK nations – “specimen date” Specimen date: Date someone had a test Because it takes a few days for results to come through, can’t use most recent few days of data. Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – UK nations – “specimen date” Wales firebreak Welsh cases going up Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
Positivity rate for UK nations (proportion of people tested who test positive) Some of it is due to more testing, but not all of it – positivity rate has started to go up… Wales firebreak Data from Daily COVID-19 Cases in Scotland - Datasets - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot), Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public, Daily dashboard updates on COVID-19 - November 2020 | Department of Health (health-ni.gov.uk), National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Thanks to Bob Hawkins for preparing the chart.
Positivity rate for UK nations (proportion of people tested who test positive) Coming out of restrictions safely is hard to do Wales firebreak Data from Daily COVID-19 Cases in Scotland - Datasets - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot), Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public, Daily dashboard updates on COVID-19 - November 2020 | Department of Health (health-ni.gov.uk), National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Thanks to Bob Hawkins for preparing the chart.
Positivity rate for UK nations (proportion of people tested who test positive) Let’s have a regional look at Scotland Data from Daily COVID-19 Cases in Scotland - Datasets - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot), Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public - Public Health Wales Health Protection | Tableau Public, Daily dashboard updates on COVID-19 - November 2020 | Department of Health (health-ni.gov.uk), National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Thanks to Bob Hawkins for preparing the chart.
Weekly positivity rate (proportion of people tested who were positive) – Scotland by new levels Scotland 5 tier Level 4 areas Scotland stronger system became level 4 restrictions in central belt Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 Data from Public Health Scotland & Scottish Government, map from https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus-scotland-interactive-map-scotlands-covid-19-level-restrictions-3038640
Weekly positivity rate (proportion of people tested who were positive) – Scotland by new levels Scotland 5 tier Level 4 areas Scotland stronger system became level 4 restrictions in central belt Similar to England lockdown Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Similar to England tiers Level 1 Data from Public Health Scotland & Scottish Government, map from https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus-scotland-interactive-map-scotlands-covid-19-level-restrictions-3038640
Weekly number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – England regions (specimen date) Lockdown England tier system Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest
Daily Test Positivity Rate for England Regions to Nov 27 Lockdown England tier system Coronavirus cases by local authority: epidemiological data, 3 December 2020 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart!
Cases now reducing in all age groups Data from https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest#age-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england- who-had-covid-19 and https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/previousReleases
What might happen in England? Daily reported case numbers in England Likely to see case numbers continue to fall for another week Very simple overlay of exponential decay. After that… all depends on how well the new tiers work.
Number of new hospital admissions per million people – UK nations (daily 7 day average) Wales includes admissions with suspected Covid – other nations just confirmed. Cannot be directly compared . Wales England NI Scotland Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk.
Number of new hospital admissions with COVID-19 per day in English regions Lockdown NE & Yorks Midlands NW Data from https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
Number of new UK deaths from COVID-19 per week These are registered deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, regardless of location. Northern Ireland About 90% are directly due to Scotland Covid. England and Wales 2,840 w/e 13 th Nov 3,041 w/e 20 th Nov 2,226 w/e 6 th Nov w/e 12 Mar w/e 17 Apr Data from : England and Wales: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest Scotland: https://data.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/detail.html Northern Ireland: www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/weekly-deaths
Number of deaths within 28 days of +ve COVID test reported per day in England Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
SAGE estimate impact of tiers (SO920 document, 26 Nov) Growing before restriction, growing more quickly after Shrinking before restriction, growing after Growing before restriction, growing more slowly after shrinking more slowly after shrinking faster Growing before restriction, after shrinking after
SAGE estimate impact of tiers (SO920 document, 26 Nov) Previous Tier 3 was associated with a shrinking pandemic in almost all areas. Growing before restriction, growing more quickly after Shrinking before restriction, growing after Growing before restriction, growing more slowly after shrinking more slowly after shrinking faster Growing before restriction, after shrinking after
SAGE estimate impact of tiers (SO920 document, 26 Nov) Previous Tier 2 was associated with slower growth in most places but epidemic started shrinking in some Tier 2 areas. Growing before restriction, growing more quickly after Shrinking before restriction, growing after Growing before restriction, growing more slowly after shrinking more slowly after shrinking faster Growing before restriction, after shrinking after
SAGE estimate impact of tiers (SO920 document, 26 Nov) Previous Tier 1 was not associated with any obvious impact and most places in Tier 1 continued growing. Growing before restriction, growing more quickly after Shrinking before restriction, growing after Growing before restriction, growing more slowly after shrinking more slowly after shrinking faster Growing before restriction, after shrinking after
Daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – England new tier 1 areas (specimen date) Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk. Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart!
Daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – England new tier 2 areas (specimen date) Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk. Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart!
Daily number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases / 100,000 people – England new tier 3 areas (specimen date) Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk. Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart!
Hospital occupancy COVID-19 per day in England Cannot afford to “stabilise” if hospital occupancy & admissions are still high Midlands NE & Yorks NW Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Test and Trace - England Test and trace is getting quicker – but not reaching more people
Mass testing - England Mass testing is now being rolled out across the country – and but results are not being reported separately. Will make positivity rates much harder to interpret. Thanks to Bob Hawkins for the chart! Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk.
Summary Case numbers, hospitalisations are coming down and deaths should soon start to come down. In Scotland, levels below lockdown seem to keep things flat rather than decreasing. In England, we should expect to see cases keep reducing over next week – might be below 10K cases a day again by end of next week. BUT, will new tiers be enough to keep things reducing? The aggregation of results from mass tests and tests only on those with symptoms is going to make interpreting case data very difficult soon. Next week: look at international picture to see what we can learn from them as they leave their own lockdowns. …and US Thanksgiving. Next week we will also be spending the session discussing the new vaccines and addressing some common concerns about them.
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