Pop QQM Behrman & Kohler Population Quantity, Introduction Quality and Mobility Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Jere R. Behrman and Hans-Peter Kohler Population Mobility Policy Implications GCF Conference – Geneva, Switzerland Towards a Better Global Economy
Pop QQM Introduction Behrman & Kohler POP QQM affected by past economic developments and Introduction help shape future economy Demographic Transition Education Presentation Considers Global Population Aging I How POP QQM evolved recently and projected to evolve in Population Mobility future Policy Implications I Possible important policy implications that might lead to a better global economy
Pop QQM Demographic Transition Behrman & Kohler Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications Lee, Ronald D. (2003). The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 167-190
Pop QQM Demographic Transition Behrman & Kohler World Population Size 18 15.8 16 Introduction High Demographic 14 Transition 12 Education 10.6 Medium Global Population 10 Billions Aging 10.1 9.3 Population Mobility 8 7.0 8.1 Low Policy Implications 6 6.2 4 2.5 2 1.0 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2010
Pop QQM Demographic Transition Behrman & Kohler World Population Growth 2,5 2.06 Introduction 2,0 Demographic Transition 1,5 Education High Global Population 1.16 Percentage 1,0 Aging 0.77 Population Mobility 0,5 Medium Policy Implications 0,0 0.06 Low -0,5 -0.81 -1,0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2010
Pop QQM Demographic Transition Behrman & Kohler Increasing well-being despite rapid population growth attributed to six factors: Introduction Demographic Transition I Market responses Education Global Population I Innovation Aging Population Mobility I Globalization Policy Implications I Urbanization I Fertility decline I Investments in children and child quality
Pop QQM Population and Food Behrman & Kohler Real agricultural prices and world population, 1900–2010 Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Policy Implications
Pop QQM Diverse Challenges Behrman & Kohler Looking forward: a diverse set of challenges I Almost-global accomplishment of longer lives and lower Introduction fertility Demographic Transition Education I Population aging in high and middle income countries Global Population Aging I Declining population growth and population aging in Population Mobility MICs and some LICs Policy Implications I Youth bulge in many MLICs I Gender imbalances – the masculinization of Asia and the feminization of old age I Continued significant population growth in selected LICs
Pop QQM Taxonomy of Population Q&Q Behrman & Kohler Introduction Population Quantity and Quality, Looking Forward from 2012 Demographic Transition Late Stages in DT and Population Quantity Education Potential High Fertility, High Post-Transition Older "Demographic Global Population Population Growth Population Structure Dividend" Aging Much of Low Population Mobility Much of South Asia Population Quality (Health, Nutrition, Sub-Saharan Africa Policy Implications Education) Medium Most of Latin America Much of East Asia and the Carribean High Most OECD countries
Pop QQM Education Behrman & Kohler Education is accumulation of knowledge Introduction I Education occurs in many venues Demographic Transition Education I Education also occurs over the life cycle Global Population Aging I Emphasis heavily on one form of education, formal Population Mobility schooling Policy Implications I Most information on formal schooling, some on early childhood development (ECD) I Schooling enrollment has expanded impressively, although quality problems remain
Pop QQM GDP Growth by Education Behrman & Kohler GDP Growth by Educational Attainment Introduction 50% no education 40% primary 1 Demographic 10% secondary Transition Education 90% primary Global Population 2 10% secondary Scenarios Aging Population Mobility 50% primary Policy Implications 3 50% secondary 50% no education 30% primary 4 15% secondary 5% tertiary 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Annual GDP growth rate (%) Source: Lutz, Wolfgang; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Sanderson, Warren (2008). The Demography of Educational
Pop QQM World Pop by Education Level Behrman & Kohler GET CER CEN FT 10 9 8 Introduction Population (billions) 7 Demographic Transition 6 Education 5 Global Population 4 Aging 3 Population Mobility 2 Policy Implications 1 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Years Population 0-14 No education Primary Secondary Tertiary Source: Lutz, Wolfgang; Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Sanderson, Warren (2008). The Demography of Educational Attainment and Economic Growth. Science, 319(5866), 1047-1048
Pop QQM Early Childhood Education Behrman & Kohler Introduction Effect on Cognitive Skills in MLICs Demographic Transition Intervention type Median Range Education Global Population Aging Center-based 0.33 0.06–1.15 Population Mobility preschool Policy Implications and day care Parent and parent- 0.28 -0.05–0.80 child interactions
Pop QQM Global Population Aging Behrman & Kohler Proportion of Population Age 60 and over, 1950–2050 Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Aging Shifting Disease Burden Population Mobility Policy Implications
Pop QQM Shifting Disease Burdens Behrman & Kohler Global Death Ranks for Top 8 Causes of Death in 2010 Introduction 2010 Demographic Transition Disorder Mean rank % change (95% UI) (95% UI) Education Global Population 1 Ischaemic heart disease 1 Ischaemic heart disease 1·0 (1 to 1) 35 (29 to 39) Aging 2 Stroke 2·0 (2 to 2) 26 (14 to 32) Aging Shifting Disease Burden 3 COPD 3·4 (3 to 4) –7 (–12 to 0) Population Mobility 4 Lower respiratory infections 3·6 (3 to 4) –18 (–24 to –11) Policy Implications 5 Lung cancer 5·8 (5 to 10) 48 (24 to 61) 6 HIV/AIDS 6·4 (5 to 8) 396 (323 to 465) 7 Diarrhoea 6·7 (5 to 9) –42 (–49 to –35) 8 Road injury 8·4 (5 to 11) 47 (18 to 86)
Pop QQM Urbanization Behrman & Kohler I In 1800 only about 3% of world population lived in urban Introduction areas Demographic Transition I Today, 50% of world population in urban areas Education I First city with 1+ million was probably London (in 1811) Global Population Aging Population Mobility I Today, 456 cities with > 1 million inhabitants Urbanization International Migration I 1.4 billion people live in cities with >1 million Policy Implications I Currently, 23 cities with >10 million population I By 2025, 37 cities with >10 million population
Pop QQM Urban Population by Region Behrman & Kohler 3,500,000 Introduction 3,000,000 Demographic Africa Transition 2,500,000 Asia Education Europe Global Population Aging 2,000,000 Latin Amer- Population Mobility ica Urbanization 1,500,000 International Migration Policy Implications 1,000,000 500,000 — 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Pop QQM International Migration Behrman & Kohler Stock of international migrants 2010 Introduction Demographic Transition Education Global Population Aging Population Mobility Urbanization International Migration Policy Implications
Pop QQM Policy Implications Behrman & Kohler Important aspects of policy recommendations Introduction Demographic Transition I Distributional and efficiency policy motives: Policy Education hierarchies with direct and prices tending to be highest, Global Population Aging tradeoffs or complementarities. Population Mobility Policy Implications I Assessing probable rates of return to policies challenging I Incentives and commitment schemes
Pop QQM Policies: Population Behrman & Kohler Introduction I High total fertility rate (TFR) contexts: family planning Demographic information, subsidies for contraceptives and a broader Transition range of reproductive health services. Education Global Population I Low TFR contexts: adapt to accommodate child rearing. Aging Population Mobility I Public pension systems: based on expected years of Policy Implications remaining life given fixed characteristics. I Increased labor market flexibility in relevant (LMICs) to permit exploiting the “demographic bonus”
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