11/14/2019 Population Estimates, The Census, And You! Master Clerks Academy II UNC‐Chapel Hill School of Government Mike Cline, PhD State Demographer Office of State Budget & Management, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section Michael.Cline@osbm.nc.gov @NCDemographer 1 1 State Demographer • State of North Carolina – OSBM • Demographic Analysis • Advise & Assist Governor’s Office & State Agencies in Planning • Population Estimates • Certified Municipal & County Estimates • Standard/Revised County and Municipal Estimates • Population Projections • County Projections (20 Year Horizon) • Federal‐State Cooperative for Population Estimates • Provide vital statistics and group quarters data to Census Bureau • Review & comment: • preliminary population estimates • input data for population estimates (e.g. housing unit estimates) • Assist with planning, review & promotion of Census 2020 https://demography.osbm.nc.gov https://www.osbm.nc.gov/facts‐figures/demographics 2 1
11/14/2019 North Carolina Population vs. Other States 9 th Largest State at 10.4 Million 4 th Largest Population Gain (848,000 people), April 2010 to July 2018 Population Estimate Change, 2010‐2018 Geographic Area April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent United States 308,758,105 327,167,434 18,409,329 6.0 California 37,254,523 39,557,045 2,302,522 6.2 Texas 25,146,114 28,701,845 3,555,731 14.1 Florida 18,804,580 21,299,325 2,494,745 13.3 New York 19,378,124 19,542,209 164,085 0.8 Pennsylvania 12,702,873 12,807,060 104,187 0.8 Illinois 12,831,572 12,741,080 ‐90,492 ‐0.7 Ohio 11,536,757 11,689,442 152,685 1.3 Georgia 9,688,709 10,519,475 830,766 8.6 North Carolina 9,535,736 10,383,620 847,884 8.9 Michigan 9,884,117 9,995,915 111,798 1.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 3 3 North Carolina Population Change – Historic and Projected North Carolina Population 1970 – 2010 and Projected Through 2038 Millions of People 12.8 11.8 10.6 9.5 8.0 6.6 5.9 5.1 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2038 Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; OSBM Population Projections, 2018 Vintage. 4 4 2
11/14/2019 In‐Migration Now Major Component of Population Growth Components of Population Change in North Carolina by Period, 1950 ‐ 2018 5 5 Net Migration More Migration to North Carolina vs Neighbors in Recent Years Net Domestic and International Migration, April 2010 to July 2018 Domestic International 560,003 NORTH CAROLINA 72% 28% GEORGIA 387,595 53% 47% 359,822 SOUTH CAROLINA 87% 13% 290,164 TENNESSEE 76% 24% 200,978 VIRGINIA Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 6 6 3
11/14/2019 Components of Change for the Ten States with the Largest Numeric Population Change, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018 Percent of Net Migration Change Due To: Population Natural Natural Net Geographic Area Change Increase International Domestic Total Increase Migration United States 18,409,329 10,714,959 7,694,370 (X) 7,694,370 58.2 41.8 Texas 3,555,731 1,710,031 813,341 1,019,434 1,832,775 48.1 51.5 Florida 2,494,745 252,109 1,072,348 1,160,387 2,232,735 10.1 89.5 California 2,302,522 1,984,436 1,043,561 -710,393 333,168 86.2 14.5 North Carolina 847,884 282,498 157,614 402,389 560,003 33.3 66.0 Georgia 830,766 439,694 182,190 205,405 387,595 52.9 46.7 Washington 811,051 294,090 221,434 295,480 516,914 36.3 63.7 Arizona 779,358 269,300 145,998 362,015 508,013 34.6 65.2 Colorado 666,248 254,332 84,970 321,782 406,752 38.2 61.1 Virginia 516,630 314,663 263,741 -62,763 200,978 60.9 38.9 South Carolina 458,746 96,014 45,047 314,775 359,822 20.9 78.4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, 2018 Vintage. Components of change include a residual not shown here. 7 7 Net Migration (cont’d) Net Domestic Migration Larger Than All But Florida and Texas Net Domestic Migration for the 10 States with the Largest Number of Net Domestic Migrants, April 2010 to July 2018 1,160,387 1,019,434 402,389 362,015 321,782 314,775 295,480 219,385 206,712 205,405 Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 8 4
11/14/2019 Population Change by County ‐ April 1, 2010 – July 1, 2018 Population Growth in NC Since 2010 Has Been Robust, But Uneven 9 9 Projected Population Change, July 1, 2019 – July 1, 2038 Projected Growth in Majority of NC Counties NCDOT DIVISIONS IN RED 10 10 5
11/14/2019 Projected Percent Population Change by Age Group, 2019‐2038 Population 65 and Over is Projected to Grow More Than 2 1/2 Times Faster Than Total Population in the Next 19 years Total 21.7% 65+ 55.3% 55‐64 7.7% 25‐54 20.1% 18‐24 8.5% 5‐17 11.3% <5 18.5% Source: OSBM, Demographic & Economic Analysis Section, Population Projections, Vintage 2018. 11 11 Counting and Estimating North Carolina Population Total Population (2018): 10.4 Million In Municipalities: 5.8 Million (56%) In Unincorporated Areas: 4.6 Million (44%) Largest County: 1,088,350 Smallest County: 4,260 Largest Incorporated City: 852,992 48,618 Sq. Miles Smallest Incorporated Village: 23 Source: NC OSBM, 2018 County and Municipal Population Estimates 12 12 6
11/14/2019 Average Population Size and Population Change by Municipality Size in 2010 5 of Every 8 Municipalities Gained Population from 2010 to 2018 Total Population Change Percent With: Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent Number Loss Growth Size* 100,000+ 267,730 302,721 34,990 12.1 9 0.0 100.0 50,000-99,999 69,232 74,863 5,630 7.7 8 12.5 87.5 25,000-49,999 33,970 38,137 4,167 12.0 17 11.8 88.2 15,000-24,999 19,144 20,972 1,828 9.0 25 44.0 56.0 10,000-14,999 12,017 13,706 1,689 13.9 23 17.4 82.6 5,000-9,999 7,032 7,653 621 8.7 50 28.0 72.0 2,500-4,999 3,603 3,885 282 8.1 90 23.3 76.7 1,000-2,499 1,621 1,697 76 4.8 111 36.0 63.1 < 1,000 459 466 8 1.0 220 46.4 50.5 All 9,498 10,551 1,052 5.1 553 35.3 63.3 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. Includes Spencer Mountain & Centerville *Population as of 2010 13 13 Twenty Largest Municipalities in 2018 Total Population Change Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent 1 Charlotte 731,424 852,992 121,568 16.6 2 Raleigh 403,892 464,451 60,559 15.0 3 Greensboro 269,666 292,286 22,620 8.4 4 Durham 228,330 265,055 36,725 16.1 5 Winston-Salem 229,617 243,445 13,828 6.0 6 Fayetteville 200,564 209,028 8,464 4.2 7 Cary 135,234 162,321 27,087 20.0 8 Wilmington 106,476 121,910 15,434 14.5 9 High Point 104,371 112,997 8,626 8.3 10 Asheville 83,393 93,621 10,228 12.3 11 Concord 79,066 92,568 13,502 17.1 12 Greenville 84,554 89,660 5,106 6.0 13 Gastonia 71,741 76,298 4,557 6.4 14 Jacksonville 70,145 75,310 5,165 7.4 15 Chapel Hill 57,233 63,178 5,945 10.4 16 Huntersville 46,773 61,220 14,447 30.9 17 Rocky Mount 57,685 54,644 -3,041 -5.3 18 Burlington 50,042 53,623 3,581 7.2 19 Apex 37,476 52,842 15,366 41.0 20 Wilson 49,167 49,054 -113 -0.2 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 14 14 7
11/14/2019 Twenty Municipalities with Largest Numeric Population Gain, 2010‐2018 Total Population Change Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent 1 Charlotte 731,424 852,992 121,568 16.6 2 Raleigh 403,892 464,451 60,559 15.0 3 Durham 228,330 265,055 36,725 16.1 4 Cary 135,234 162,321 27,087 20.0 5 Greensboro 269,666 292,286 22,620 8.4 6 Wilmington 106,476 121,910 15,434 14.5 7 Apex 37,476 52,842 15,366 41.0 8 Huntersville 46,773 61,220 14,447 30.9 9 Winston-Salem 229,617 243,445 13,828 6.0 10 Concord 79,066 92,568 13,502 17.1 83,393 93,621 10,228 12.3 11 Asheville 12 Holly Springs 24,661 34,068 9,407 38.1 13 Fuquay-Varina 17,937 26,924 8,987 50.1 14 High Point 104,371 112,997 8,626 8.3 15 Mooresville 32,711 41,255 8,544 26.1 16 Fayetteville 200,564 209,028 8,464 4.2 17 Morrisville 18,576 26,041 7,465 40.2 30,117 37,279 7,162 23.8 18 Wake Forest 19 Cornelius 24,866 31,737 6,871 27.6 20 Leland 13,527 20,297 6,770 50.0 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 15 15 Twenty Fastest Growing Municipalities, 2010‐2018 Total Population Change Rank Municipality April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 Numeric Percent 1 Rolesville 3,786 6,635 2,849 75.3 2 St. James 3,165 5,353 2,188 69.1 3 Bermuda Run 1,725 2,665 940 54.5 4 Fontana Dam 15 23 8 53.3 5 Harrisburg 11,526 17,469 5,943 51.6 6 Falcon 258 390 132 51.2 7 Fuquay-Varina 17,937 26,924 8,987 50.1 8 Leland 13,527 20,297 6,770 50.0 9 Waxhaw 9,859 14,249 4,390 44.5 10 Holly Ridge 1,268 1,825 557 43.9 11 Stem 463 656 193 41.7 12 Apex 37,476 52,842 15,366 41.0 13 Morrisville 18,576 26,041 7,465 40.2 14 Holly Springs 24,661 34,068 9,407 38.1 15 Elon 9,409 12,695 3,286 34.9 16 Knightdale 11,401 15,305 3,904 34.2 17 Navassa 1,505 2,001 496 33.0 18 Clayton 16,116 21,158 5,042 31.3 19 Shallotte 3,675 4,827 1,152 31.3 20 Huntersville 46,773 61,220 14,447 30.9 Source: North Carolina OSBM, Standard Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. 16 16 8
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