MESYUARAT PANEL PERUNDINGAN TENAGA By Mr. Gurcharan Singh Head (GSO) 10 th JUNE 2014
SYSTEM HIGHLIGHTS GENERATION • 21,509 MW INSTALLED CAPACITY PERLIS LANGKAWI Chuping N Kangar • 11,222 MW (52.2%) Kuah TNB Kota Bharu Alor Kota Setar Setar KEDAH YAN Gurun Tanah Merah Bedong • 10,287 MW (47.8%) PERGAU IPP PRAI BERSIA Georgetown Bukit Tengah TEMENGOR Kuala PULAU PINANG Terengganu Junjung GELUGOR Bukit Tambun KENERING KELANTAN MAXIMUM DEMAND SG PIAH UPPER • 16,583 MW SG PIAH LOWER KENYIR CHENDEROH (29/05/14) TERENGGANU Kuala Kangsar PERAK PAKA Ipoh YTL Papan RESERVE CAPACITY Batu Gajah SEGARI • 4,926 MW (29.7%) JOR Telok Kalong Ayer Tawar MARGIN WOH JANAMANJUNG ODAK PAHANG Kuantan HIGHEST ENERGY • 345.25 GWH/DAY DEMAND (25/6/2013) Bukit Tarek Kg Awah SELANGOR KL (E) WILAYAH KL (N) KAPAR PERSEKUTUAN Shah KL (S) Alam CONNAUGHT SERDANG Hicom G BRIDGE Lenggeng NEGERI SEMBILAN GENTING Salak Tinggi SANYEN Seremban PD POWER PORT DICKSON POWERTEK MELAKA Melaka MELAKA Melaka Yong Peng (E) Yong Peng (N) JOHOR Sedili Bukit Batu YTL 404 95,990 Johor 21,092 Scudai Bahru PASIR GUDANG 3 SUBSTATION MVA INSTALLED CAPACITY CIRCUIT KILOMETRES
FORECAST DEMAND GROWTH To support the Demand growth and Generation plant-up, Transmission needs augmentation of National Grid System. 2018 2017 19,492 MW 19,492MW 18 ,880 MW 18,880MW 2016 18,282 MW 18,282MW 2015 17,697 MW 17,697MW 2014 Average growth of 3.31% 17,152 MW from 2014 - 2018 17,152MW
MONTHLY MAXIMUM DEMAND MONTHLY MAXIMUM DEMAND FY 2008/2009 – FY 2013/2014 FY 2008/2009 – FY 2013/2014 Monthly Peak Demand, MW 17,000 Financial Highest Year MD (MW) 16,000 08/09 14,245 09/10 15,072 15,000 MW 10/11 15,476 14,000 11/12 15,826 12/13 16,562 13,000 13/14 16,583 12,000 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug FY 08/09 FY 09/10 FY10/11 FY11/12 FY12/13 FY13/14 Maximum Demand for 2014 forecasted to increase during June to August impacted by the El-Nino effect.
GENERATION MIX 2002-2013 Generation Mix For Peninsula Malaysia 100% • Major fuel mix in Peninsula Malaysia - Coal and Gas 90% • Gas dependability reduced 80% from 75% in 2003 to 47% in 2013. 70% • Coal contributes increased 60% to 45% in 2013. 50% • For FY1314, coal 40% percentage has dropped due to major rectification 30% work by stations for tube leak problems. 20% • Oil and Distillate are back up 10% fuels during gas curtailments 0% and coal unit forced FY0203 FY0304 FY0405 FY0506 FY0607 FY0708 FY0809 FY0910 FY1011 FY1112 FY1213 FY1314 outages. COAL GAS HYDRO OIL DISTILLATE
GENERATION MIX BY FUEL 2014-2018 GENERATION MIX BY FUEL 2014 - 2018 70 Gas Coal LNG Hydro Percentage Generation Mix by Feul 59 57 60 • Future plant-up of coal units 53 pushes Coal to 59% in 50 46 2018. 43 • 42 Gas and LNG kept at 37% 41 39 and hydro at 4%. 40 36 36 • Coal becomes major fuel mix going forward due to its’ 30 competitive pricing and availability readiness. 20 12 8 10 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gas and LNG is differentiated by price and quantum. • Below 1000mmscfd – GAS (Subsidised price) • Above 1000mmscfd – LNG (Bintulu price)
PERFORMANCE - SYSTEM MINUTES • The international benchmark for system performance and 20 reliability. 20 17.93 • 18 An index that measures the severity of each system 16 disturbance relative to the size 14 13.67 of the system. 14 12 • Determined by calculating the 9.34 ratio of unsupplied energy 10 during an outage to the 7.32 -98% 8 6.56 energy that would be supplied during one minute, if the 6 supplied energy was at its 4 peak value. 1.02 1.03 1.01 2 0.82 0.44 0 TNB managed to reduce the transmission system minutes from 20min in 2002 to 0.44min in 2013.
SYSTEM MINUTES - BENCHMARKING 0.44 KEPCO: 25.106 minutes TNB Malaysia - 2013 2.30 TEPCO: 9 minutes RTE France 4.73 ESKOM South Africa 8.30 ELECTRANET Australia 12.23 TRANSCO Phillipines 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 Minutes For 2013, TNB’s performance was better than KEPCO and TEPCO, two major utility in Asia.
ADDITIONAL 7,500 MW GENERATION CAPACITY COMMITTED UNTIL 2019 Hulu Terengganu (TNB) 250 MW Hydro (Sep 2015) PERLIS LANGKAWI Chuping Kangar Kuah Kota Tembat (TNB) Bharu Prai (TNB) Alor Kota Setar 15MW Hydro Setar 2 x 535 MW CCGT (Jan KEDAH 2016) YAN Gurun Tanah Merah Bedong PERGAU PRAI BERSIA Georgetown Bukit Tengah Bukit Tengah Bukit Tengah TEMENGOR Kuala Chenderoh (TNB) PULAU PINANG Terengganu Junjung GELUGOR 12MW Hydro Bukit Tambun KENERING KELANTAN SG PIAH UPPER (Dec 2015) SG PIAH LOWER KENYIR CHENDEROH TERENGGANU Kuala Kangsar PERAK PAKA Ipoh Ulu Jelai (TNB) YTL Janamanjung (TNB) Papan Batu Gajah 372MW Hydro SEGARI Unit 4: 1 x 1000 MW Coal (Mar JOR Telok Kalong Ayer Tawar (2018) 2015) WOH JANAMANJUNG ODAK Unit 5: 1x1000 MW Coal (Oct 2017) PAHANG Kuantan Bukit Tarek Kg Awah SELANGOR KL (E) WILAYAH KAPAR PERSEKUTUAN Shah KL (S) Alam Connaught Bridge (TNB) CONNAUGHT SERDANG Hicom G BRIDGE Lenggeng 1 x 350 MW CCGT NEGERI SEMBILAN GENTING (Sep 2015) Salak Tinggi SANYEN Seremban PD PCP, Pengerang (IPP) POWER PORT 400 MW Import DICKSON POWERTEK MELAKA (Jul 2017) Melaka 1MDB (IPP) MELAKA Melaka Yong Peng (E) Unit : 2 x 1000 MW Coal Yong Peng (N) JOHOR Sedili (2019) Tg Bin (IPP) Unit 4: 1 x 1000 MW Coal Bukit Batu (Mar 2016) YTL Johor Scudai Bahru PASIR GUDANG
TRANSMISSION PROJECTS REINFORCING THE GRID GURUN (E) • 500KV LINES AYER TAWAR – TAPAH & LENGGENG – Kuala Ketil YONG PENG(E) (2019) JUNJUNG HULU TERENGGANU • ULU JELAI HYDRO (2017) NEW PRAI • TG BIN U4 (2016) • JANAMANJUNG U4 & U5 AYER TAWAR (2015) JANAMANJUNG ULU JELAI • PRAI (2016) TAPAH • HULU TERENGGANU BKT TAREK (2015) KAPAR BENTONG (S) LENGGENG OLAK LEMPIT JIMAH YONG PENG (E) BKT BATU 500kV line 500kV line but energized at 275kV TG BIN PASIR GUDANG
MAJOR CHALLENGES Major Challenges Faced by Transmission Grid System High unplanned 1 generator outages Risk of water Constraint on 2 4 supply to power generation Challenging Weather stations operating reserves 3 Reduced rainfall at hydro catchments 5 Gas supply issues North-Central Flow 6 Constraint
HIGH UNPLANNED GENERATOR OUTAGES Generator Outages 2013 - 2014 30% • Total generators outages (plan and forced) averages at 17% for last 2 years. 20% • Highest outage rate was 29%, on 22 Jan 2014. • We are operating at 30% 10% reserve margin now. • Reserve Margin is expected to drop to 25% 0% Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Unplanned Deration Planned Generator on Forced Outages 2013-2014 4000 3000 • Forced Outage in system can reach up to 3800MW on MW 2000 certain days. 1000 0 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
LOW GENERATION OPERATING RESERVE Yellow Warning Orange Warning • 13 th – 27 th May 2013 • 6 th – 8 th May 2014 • 13 th Nov – 6 th Dec 2013 • 26 th – 27 th May 2014 8,000 • 20 th – 24 th Jan 2014 Red Warning • 7 th May 2014 6,000 Actual OR 4,000 MW 2300 MW 1800 MW 2,000 900 MW 0 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Minimum OR target was reduced to 1800MW due to:- Operating • Demand increase Reserve • To meet schedule outage requirements
CHALLENGING WEATHER 249 TMGR LAKE LEVEL 247 '1112 245 • Current lake level at Kenyir is the '1213 243 lowest for the last 14 years. • Current water inflow in the 241 catchments area are below average. 239 • current level The year end target levels for 237 Kenyir and Temenggor revised 1-Sep 1-Dec 1-Mar 1-Jun due to impounding work for Hulu Trengganu project and the KNYR LAKE LEVEL 147 anticipated El-Nino impact. '1213 '1112 145 • Available water resources must be carefully utilized to ensure full capacity throughout the year and 143 2015. 141 • Water resources also must be ensured available to meet the 139 relevant agencies minimum discharge requirements. 137 Current Level 135 1-Sep 1-Dec 1-Mar 1-Jun
WATER SUPPLY TO POWER STATIONS • Raw water supply to power stations are essential for the plant operation. • All power station are listed as ‘ sasaran penting ’, thus water supply will be given top priority by water suppliers. • Station have identified the risk and established mitigation actions if water supply is disrupted. Survival rate, 3 to 10 days. • High risk states are N. Sembilan and Selangor. Concentration of power stations
GAS SUPPLY • 12 number of planned gas curtailments. • 72 days with shortfall exceeding 400mmscfd. • Critical shutdown planned in 2014 • June, 28 days of TTM shutdown during high demand period. • August, 14 days of TCOT shutdown.
Recommend
More recommend
