Perspective on State Economic and Fiscal Issues Henry Sobanet - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Perspective on State Economic and Fiscal Issues Henry Sobanet Office of State Planning and Budgeting Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting

Colorado Leading and Coincident Economic Indices Pickup in economic growth is 4.0 projected to continue. Great Recession 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Percent -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Coincident Economic Activity Index for Colorado, July 1992=100, Six-Month % Change, Seasonally Adjusted Leading Index for Colorado Six Months Ahead, Percent, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting 2

Drilling Rigs in Colorado and Oil Prices 90 $120 80 $100 70 60 $80 50 $60 40 30 $40 20 $20 10 0 $0 CO Rig Count (Left Axis) WTI Spot Price (Right Axis) Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Federal Reserve Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting 3

Selected Major Demands on FY 2017-18 General Fund Resources, Available New Revenue, and Funding Gap (millions of dollars) Item Amount Source of Requirement State Constitution / State K-12 New Enrollment and Inflation $370.3 Statute TABOR Rebate $135.1 State Constitution Repay Budget Reserve from FY 2016-17 $260.4 State Statute / Policy Goal S.B. 09-228 Transportation and Capital Transfers $163.7 State Statute New Medicaid Costs $141.8 Federal / State Statute TOTAL $1,071.3 Available New General Fund Revenue $374.7 Minimum Funding Gap $696.6 Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting 4

A TABOR Illustration TABOR Limit Income and General Fund Sales taxes TABOR Refund Cash Funds Fees Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting 5

State of Colorado FY 2017-18 General Fund Request (In Millions) and Percent of Total GF for Capital Construction $88.5 1% All Other GF Transfer to Spending $767.4 HUTF $79.0 1% 7% Public Safety/Courts $1,399.2 13% K-12 Education $3,965.5 36% Human Services $865.6 8% Health Care Higher Education Policy/Financing $898.1 8% $2,797.2 26% Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting 6

K-12 Total Program Funding $8,000 Funding Level without Negative $7,000 Factor $6,000 $2,281 $2,451 Millions of Dollars $2,281 $2,260 $5,000 $1,983 $1,976 $1,918 $1,901 $4,000 $3,000 $3,181 $3,299 $3,927 $3,592 $3,790 $2,985 $2,000 $2,672 $2,852 $1,000 $769 $660 $680 $603 $522 $520 $374 $368 $0 FY 2011- FY 2012- FY 2013- FY 2014- FY 2015- FY 2016- FY 2017- FY 2017- 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 NOV 1 18 JAN 15 State Ed Fund & Public School Fund General Fund Local Share Governor's Office of State Planning and Budgeting 3 7