UNCLASSIFIED Partnering with Joint and Operations Analysis Division 1
UNCLASSIFIED Joint and Operations Analysis Division undertakes rigorous scientifically-based analysis of Defence operations and capability 2
UNCLASSIFIED Major Science & Technology Capabilities • Joint Warfare Mathematical • Land Mathematical Science • Maritime Mathematical Science Science • Land Organisation & Management • Maritime Simulation, • Joint Organisation & Social Science Experimentation & War-gaming Science • Land Simulation, Experimentation • Maritime Systems Analysis • Joint Simulation, Experimentation & War-gaming • Australian Maritime Warfare & War-gaming • Defence Systems Integration Centre • Defence Operations Support Centre • Scientific Adviser CJOPS Maritime Joint Capability Land Capability Capability Analysis Analysis Analysis Trusted Autonomy, Behavior, Complexity and Control • Strategic Analysis • Aerospace Mathematical Science • Planning and Logistics • Force Design • Aerospace Organisation & • Situation Assessment Principal • Technology Forecasting & Futures Management Science • Command Intent Scientist • Strategic Security Risk • Aerospace Simulation, • Behaviour and Control Assessment Experimentation & War-gaming • Aerospace Systems Analysis Strategic Aerospace Capability Capability Decision Sciences Analysis Analysis 3
UNCLASSIFIED Opportunities for Collaboration: Technology Forecasting and Force Design Strategic Analysis Development of methods for robust future technology forecasting. Force Design Complex Systems Evaluation. Advanced visualisation. 4
UNCLASSIFIED Opportunities for Collaboration: Acquisition Support Land Combat Vehicle System War-gaming & Experimentation Simulation Development of operations research techniques for comparison of Army mounted combat system options 5
UNCLASSIFIED Opportunities for Collaboration: Autonomy & Situational Awareness Trusted Autonomous Systems Operations analysis to capture need and uncertainty. New approaches to machine cognition. Human/Machine interaction. Technology development and transition. Enhanced Situational Awareness Advanced capabilities that can capture the story behind the data. 6
UNCLASSIFIED Summary Joint and Operations Analysis Division is engaged across the capability spectrum 7
UNCLASSIFIED Future Technology Forecasting 8
UNCLASSIFIED T ECHNOLOGY F ORECASTING & F UTURES • Provide input to and guidance on: • Strategic Analysis − Avoiding strategic surprise • Force Design • Technology Forecasting & Futures − Future Operating Environments • Strategic Security Risk Assessment − Inform Investment decisions Strategic Technology Capability Forecasting & Futures Analysis A systematic process of Possible analysis to describe requirements for emergence of Plausible and prospective impact of a Now Probable technology; to develop insight into possible future Preferable technological capabilities and their attributes in relevant The Future scenarios. 9
UNCLASSIFIED P ARTNERSHIP -C ENTRIC F ORECASTING AND F UTURES P ROCESS General Australian Perspective TW/HS products Identification & Capture (EDT Toolkit and List) Leverage TW/HS tools & approaches (EMR) Emerging Other Countries Defence and Trends Intelligence Perspectives Input to research & Scientific Assessment planning Leverage SMEs across disciplines (burden-sharing) Emerging Trends Academic Literature and patent data Input to operational Contextualisation & Prioritisation programs Leverage Impact Assessments to cover additional topic Emerging & reas Disruptive Industry Perspectives and Trends Popular Literature Reporting & Intervention Leverage common formats to produce sharable results Global Institutions (UN, OECD, ILO) 10
UNCLASSIFIED P ARTNERSHIPS • Impact across Defence: DSTO, Strategy group, VCDF, Services. • External: – Universities • Emerging and Disruptive Technology Assessment Symposium (EDTAS) • Technology Assessments – Academy of Science • Joint Foresight Assessments – National Security – CSIRO • Mega-trend analysis – TTCP JSA TP9 • International collaborations 11
UNCLASSIFIED C ONTRIBUTING P ATHWAYS CAPABILITIES EXPLOITATION of PRODUCT • • Depth of knowledge with ‘ reach- Collaborative ‘blue - red’ briefs ( Joint back ’ into wider DSTO experts assessments) • • Ability to leverage from academic Emerging technology watch, issues partnerships and international papers and reports communities • Capability ‘concept’ cards • Ability to contextualise technologies • Biannual Strategic S&T Estimates in a future environment • Support to developing future • Modelling & simulation test-bed and operating concepts and scenarios development environment • Independent credible assessment of • Emerging and Disruptive Technology capabilities within defined scenarios Assessment Symposium (EDTAS) – • Input to FSR and Defence Whitepaper Trusted Autonomy • Contribute to export control • Red teaming capabilities including considerations workshop and war-gaming support 12
UNCLASSIFIED Strategic Force Design 13
UNCLASSIFIED Strategic Force Design PREPARE AND Collaboration opportunities DESIGN AND EMPLOY THE CONNECTED • DEVELOP THE capability analysis THROUGH CURRENT FUTURE FORCE TIME FORCE • whole-of-force design modelling • prioritisation and resource allocation • complex systems The Force Design Planned Future Conceptual Current evaluation Force Design Testing Observation Assessment Estimation Speculation • cost and benefit-cost investment analysis Force Design Change Solutions Adjustments Initiatives Hedges Actions • multi-dimensional 0yr 10yr 20yr 30yr visualisation Our centre of gravity
UNCLASSIFIED Acquisition Support
UNCLASSIFIED Simulation-based acquisition – Capability analysis – Cost and capability trade off – Data representation and analysis visualisation – Multi criteria decision analysis – Combat simulation 16
UNCLASSIFIED Army’s Mounted Combat System Transformation Mounted Combat Reconnaissance Capability ASLAV 257 x * ASLAV Replacement LAND 400 * Request for Tender 2015 * ~225 vehicles Land Combat Vehicle System * Reconnaissance, Fire Support & Lift * Enhanced Firepower & Survivability Mounted Close Combat * Enable Future Combined Arms Teams 450 x M113AS4 Capability * Acquisition Cost >$10b * M113 Replacement * Subject to White Paper Heavy Assault 59 x M1A1 Capability LAND 907 Tank Upgrade * Enhanced capability DSTO explores the operational effectiveness of L400 candidate options 17
UNCLASSIFIED Combat Simulation Objective - Improve combat effectiveness of the combat brigade. Method - Competing systems are run through a set of battlefield evaluations using a high-resolution simulations of the combat environment to evaluate the trade-offs. Example - What is the “battlefield impact” of changing the calibre of the cavalry vehicle cannon from 25mm to 40mm? Evaluation 1 Evaluation 2 Evaluation 3 Method delivers statistically supported findings … such as: In this test the weapon change made no significant difference. 18
UNCLASSIFIED There is an opportunity for industry to partner with DSTO in the delivery of operations research support to Land 400, particularly around combat simulation. 19
UNCLASSIFIED Trusted Autonomous Systems Strategic Research Initiative 20
UNCLASSIFIED Summary • Aim for World’s Top 5 in autonomous systems R&D in 7 yrs • Coordinated focus on a single unified research question • Develop new DSTO and academic research capabilities • Smooth a path for industry and transition to Defence • Significant outcomes planned in science and technology • Intention to partner with the best Trusted Autonomous System Integration (I) Machine (M) Human (H) MMI HMI HHI 21 21
UNCLASSIFIED Automation vs Autonomy Autonomy has been “ just around the corner ” for 20+ years but never arrives? Hyundai autonomous car DARPA Robotic Challenge Deutsche Euro Hawk cancelled competition called off after winner SCHAFT opens a door deemed unverifiable without rain - Oct 2014 but gets a surprise - Dec 2014 massive expense - 2013 • The autonomy we dream about and the automation we currently posses • “ Four elements make up the climate of war: danger, exertion, uncertainty and chance ” Clausewitz ( 1834/1984) • The research question centres on systems that deal with uncertainty / unpredicted events. 22 22
Recommend
More recommend
