Connected World: Transforming Travel, Transportation and Supply Chains EU Transport Business Summit March 2014
Transport 2025: Plenty of Transformation Vehicle Automation & Subscription, Innovation Cloud Driven Sharing & Decisions Services Velocity & Demand Growth Capability Needs & Attitude Change New Protectionism We could make a long list… 1
Determining likely multistakeholder challenges and opportunities Phase I: Phase II: Phase III: Representative Megatrends 2025 scenarios solutions IPITA — COMET — integrated condition New Balance proactive based Infrastructure Hotspots intermodal megacity traffic (e.g., energy, travel assistant management environment, megacities) Maximized Growth IT Telco Mind the Gap Transport Ecosystem Blind spots 1 ACIS — TATLO — (e.g., cloud fully tracking- and solutions/ automated transparency- big data, aging) Regulations Local is King check-in, based logistics security, optimization border control/ smart visa — Multi-stakeholder platform with over 50 leading companies across travel, transportation, and ICT 2 industries — Identify future challenges and opportunities of future mobility ecosystem — Pinpoint concrete scenario implications for each stakeholder group Impact — Create insights on future blind spots and new business models — Influence policy makers by pragmatic recommendations and dialogue 1. Megatrends less understood regarding implications on the travel and transport ecosystem, exemplary blind spots from Task Force survey 2. Information and communication technology 2
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Initial traffic management systems established, but substantial room for improvement to reach COMET value proposition — examples Hong Kong Zhenjiang Rio de Janeiro Singapore Real-time monitoring Real-time analytics Intelligent steering Dynamic tolling Access restriction Smart parking System System with Comparably Dynamic focusing on advanced strong tolling system traffic steering analytics analytics, but to smoothen to reduce capabilities to largely traffic flows, congestion; steer traffic, human- but no no smart but no tolling powered; no advanced parking and parking dynamic analytics component capabilities tolling or capabilities Degree of fulfillment of COMET characteristics smart parking Source: ITS; roadtraffic-technology.com; IBM; Rio de Janeiro; NY Times; Singapore Ministry of Transport; U.S. Department of Transport; World Economic Forum/BCG analysis 4
COMET roadmap consists of four phases, expanding scope and functionalities over time Example roadmap – alternatives possible Today 2025 1 2 3 4 Launch Expand to Complete Fully toll road nucleus active steering service portfolio enable COMET Transparency for Active traffic Active traffic Traffic steering Functionality users steering (incl. steering and unified scope recommendations and payment provision access restrictions) Asset scope Key toll roads Signage installed, Parking included Toll roads, operated by REIT public transport signage, included pub. transport, parking Floating car data Floating car data Data collection Add'l sensors Floating car data where needed and sensors where infrastructure (e.g., parking) needed Public authorit. REIT investment in REIT investment Responsibilities of Full engagement (PA) run most sign., PA provide in sensors and of REIT, PAs in REIT/public operational issues ; pub. transport data & parking, approval supervisory role authorities REIT only toll roads direct act. steering by PA (and control public transport) Benefits for... Transparency over traffic Active recommendations, incl. Smart parking features Simple payments through Users situation link to public transport (availability, reservation, etc.) one unified system Efficiently operated toll roads, Lower congestion due to Added transparency over Full transparency over City less operational responsibility active steering and ability to parking usage and better transport system, no more leverage traffic data utilization of parking spaces operational burden Opportunity to profitably run Opportunity to op. add'l roads Opportunity to monetize smart Add'l revenue and efficiency Companies toll roads and signage infrastructure parking (e.g. dynamic pricing) through unified payments Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis 5
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Booking Today's solutions not covering all covered by GDS, e.g. required IPITA functions Amadeus, Sabre No/low coverage Some coverage Real-time Natural user At Focus information interface Planning Booking Travelling destination Functional breadth of service coverage (indicative) Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis Note: Selected companies only; some companies/services with limited geographical scope 7
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ACIS roadmap consists of four phases, phases can be completed with differing speeds by category Example roadmap – alternatives possible Today 2020 1 2 3 4 National visa, Supra-country Multi-country Regional visa, traditional visa, risk-based visa, advanced risk- seamless security systems screening based screening process No recognition Recognition of Full recognition of One common International of other select supra- other countries' digital visa with cooperation 1 countries' visa country visa visa (bilateral) unified criteria/ (unilateral) processes for SMART Visa entire region Technological/ Isolated nat'l visa Isolated nat'l visa Int'l visa DB w/ Int'l visa DB w/ systems, no systems, some supra-nat'l gov't supra-nat'l gov't procedural biometric data biometric info used, body, some biometric body, full biometric implementation used, state-driven private app. info used, private app. info used, private app. process; no process; PAIP on process; PAIP on app. process; PAIP PAIP selected airports selected airports on all airports Traditional Traditional Screen liquids and Stand-off screening, Scanner and scanners but no need to divest scanners, explosive tablets w/o security SMART Airport detection dogs separate lanes or divesting, separate electronics, separate infrastructure processes per risk- processes per risk- processes per risk- level level level Basic PNR data Security screening Automatic behavior Full behavior Risk database use analysis using rule- depending on risk detection, analysis across based systems entire airport , e.g. score, inclusion of automatic delivery add'l data sources of risk score to via CCTV checkpoint Notes: PAIP = Pre-approved immigration program; Airport security roadmap is compatible with IATA "Checkpoint of the Future" except for compressed timeline Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis 9
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Digitization of supply chain facilitates trade — clear benefits for society Deep dive: Specific Reducing trade barriers has substantive, benefits of eFreight in positive influence on GDP air cargo Total annual benefits (US$ bn) 15 71% 1.4 12.0 33% 6% 2% 1.2 9% 9% 11% 7% Russia and other FSU 9.4 10 Europe, except FSU 26% 10% United States and Korea Canada Other oil producers 46% 11% 3% 34% 65% 49% Japan Non-oil Middle East and 5 26% 34% North Africa 31% 11% South and Central Asia 74% 18% Mexico 12% China, Hong Kong, Taiwan 30% 63% 55% Southeast Asia 0 Brazil Sub-Saharan Africa Shipper Forwarder Carrier Total 39% 38% 1% 2% Volume increase Oceania Rest of Americas Decreased delivery times GDP INCREASE TRADE INCREASE (e.g. inventory savings) ≥9% 2-3% 4-5% 6-8% Exports Imports Reduced document processing costs Source: Ferrantino, Geiger and Tsigas: The Benefits of Trade Facilitation- A Modeling Exercise, based on 2007 base line; Ambitious Scenario; IATA; World Economic Forum 2013, World Economic Forum/BCG analysis 11
"Data integrators": Forwarders/3PLs could perform integration and translation tasks – gov't agencies accessible through single window Brief description National government National government authorities/ authorities/ customs agencies customs agencies — Freight forwarders/3PLs provide multiple interfaces so Serve as data integrators different consignors/consignees and translators – "speak Single Window Single Window can connect to their systems; multiple standards" and competitive advantage for Set-up link different consignors, forwarders/3PLs through consignees, carriers, and — ability to provide Carriers 1 gov't agencies additional services — cost reduction — Government authorities provide single-window interface — Consignor uploads info to freight forwarder/3PL and Freight forwarders/3PLs 1 Freight forwarder/3PL 1 authorizes forwarder/3PL to use Freight forwarder/3PL 1 info in further process 1 — Freight forwarder/3PL Operation communicates with gov't authorities and carriers Consignee/buyer — Freight forwarder/3PL communicates with consignee — Both push and pull models of info exchange are Consignor/shipper End Customer conceivable 1. 3PL = Third-party logistics provider; Relationships shown: some carriers do not use 3PLs and Authorized offer services directly to consignors/shippers Flow of Integrator Cash flows information Source: World Economic Forum/BCG analysis goods role 12 flow
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