Outline 1 The topic 2 Decision support systems 3 Modeling 3.3 Advanced modeling Compositional modeling: requirements Conceptual modeling: Why? How? Qualitative modeling: Why? Limitations? Automated model composition Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 70 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Ecological Modeling and Decision Support Systems Requirements Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 71 - 71 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Model Structure (Townsend et al. 08) Vulture births in Adult vultures year t-5 in year t-1, N t-1 Baseline Baseline survival, S survival, S Maturation Survival and survival Effect of Effect of diclofenac diclofenac Adult vultures in year t, N t Probability of a Rate at which Probability of a Rate at which carcass carcasses are carcass carcasses are containing eaten, F containing eaten, F diclofenac, C diclofenac, C Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 72 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Re-arranged Structure of a Model of Vulture Population Adult vultures Baseline Vulture births in in year t-1, N t-1 survival, S year t-5 Survival Maturation and survival Adult vultures in year t, N t Why re-arranged? Reuse of model Effect of elements diclofenac Probability of Rate at which carcasses with carcasses are diclofenac, C eaten, F Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 73 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Requirements Compositional modeling – Complex model: aggregation of elementary model fragments – Requires conceptual modeling Conceptual modeling – Represent objects, relationships, interactions explicitly Qualitative modeling – Models capturing partial knowledge and information Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 74 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Outline 1 The topic 2 Decision support systems 3 Modeling 3.3 Advanced modeling 3.3.1 Conceptual modeling Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 75 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Ecological Modeling and Decision Support Systems Processes - Motivating Examples Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 76 - 76 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Process-oriented Modeling - Part 1 Identify and model elementary, independent phenomena/interactions: “processes” Reproduction Population Death Immigration size Emigration Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 77 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Process-oriented Modeling – Part 2 Identify preconditions for the process to happen – objects – object relations – quantity conditions DiclCarcasses Prob.: C>0 Dicl VulturePop Poisoning N>0 SameLocation (VulturePop, DiclCarsasses) Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 78 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Process-oriented Modeling – Part 2 Cont’d Identify preconditions for the process to happen – objects – object relations – quantity conditions Resources amount>0 Population Reproduction density > d 0 Accessible (Population, Resources) Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 79 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Process-oriented Modeling – Part 3 Identify and describe impact on objects/relations DiclCarcasses Prob.: C>0 Dicl Carcasses Dicl VulturePop Poisoning N>0 Vulture Pop SameLocation (VulturePop, DiclCarsasses) Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 80 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Process-oriented Modeling – Part 3 Cont’d Identify and describe impact on objects/relations Resources amount>0 Resources Population Reproduction density > d 0 Population Accessible (Population, Resources) Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 81 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Process-oriented Modeling – Part 4 Describe effects on quantities Resources amount>0 Resources Population Reproduction ? density > d 0 Population Accessible “ dN/dt = r · N ” (Population, Resources) Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 82 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Ecological Modeling and Decision Support Systems Processes – More Formally Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 83 - 83 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Process-Oriented Modeling Model Fragment (Process) Conditions Structure (objects, object relations) Quantities Effects Structure Quantities STRUCT-CONDS QUANT-CONDS „Model“ in the „classical“ sense STRUCT-EFFECTS QUANT-EFFECTS Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 84 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Formal Basis for Reasoning about Models Process: a logical formula deduction consistency check model composition model-based diagnosis model-based therapy … Conceptual layer STRUCT-CONDS explanation QUANT-CONDS education STRUCT-EFFECTS QUANT-EFFECTS Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 85 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Ecological Modeling and Decision Support Systems More Examples and Demonstration Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 86 - 86 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Example: Chloramin Reactions CHLORAMINE REACTION Water treatment: + + HClO NH 2 Cl + H 2 O + H + NH 4 \monochloramines (1) protocol of knowledge NH 2 Cl + HClO NHCl 2 + H 2 O \dichloramines (2) acquisition from NHCl 2 + HClO NCl 3 + H 2 O \trichloramines (3) experts Preconditions The pH determines the stability of chloramine compounds. So in excess chlorine concentration, it’s possible to say that monochloramine stability go down, and it decomposed to: – Structural 2NH 2 Cl + HClO N 2 + 3HCl + H 2 O (4) (substances) If the pH is favorable to dichloramines existence, it is decomposed as: – Quantity NH 2 Cl N 2 + 2HCl + Cl 2 (5) Cl 2 + H 2 O HClO + HCl (6) Effects – Structural If the pH is favorable to dichloramines and monochloramines existence, then (4) will be the predominant reaction. So the water with this conditions won’t have trichloramine (NCl 3 ), because (new substances) they will be reduced to dichloramine form, as: – Quantity NCl 3 + H 2 O NHCl 2 + HClO (7) Finally, to simplifying the reaction it can be said that amonium is totally destroyed by chlorine as: 2NH 3 + 3Cl 2 6HCl + N 2 (8) Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 87 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Demonstration: SIMGEN for Tutoring Runs a simulation answers queries about the simulation - „ WHAT happens?“: values, active processes about the domain theory - „ WHY does it happen?“: preconditions Example: different cups containing a liquid under different conditions Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 88 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Ecological Modeling and Decision Support Systems Requirement: Context Independence Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 89 - 89 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Context-independent Models Compositional modeling re-usable model fragments re-usable in different contexts context-independent model fragments refer to local variables only attributes of involved objects state all preconditions Otherwise: applied in wrong context specify effect locally “dN/dt = r·N” ??? Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 90 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Effects Cannot be Stated by Derivatives Solution ch. 3.3.3 ? Reproduction dN/dt = r*N Population Death Immigration size Emigration Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 91 Group of the Technical University of Munich
Modeling Assumptions Context-independent models In the ideal sense: impossible Complete preconditions? Unstated negative preconditions: “… and X must not be present” Resources amount>0 Resources Population Reproduction density > d 0 Population Accessible (Population, Resources) Model-Based Systems & Qualitative Reasoning WS 14/15 EMDS 3 - 92 Group of the Technical University of Munich
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