Oregon and STEM+ Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oregon and STEM+ Migration and Educational Attainment by Degree Type among Young Oregonians Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 1

What is STEM and STEM+? • STEM refers to college degrees where graduates majored in Science, Technology, Engineering or Math • STEM+ refers to STEM majors plus Business and Health • Better job opportunities • Rough approximation of so- called “good” degrees 2 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Focus of Report • Young Oregonians and Migrants • About half of migrants are 20- and 30-somethings • 1 in 4 are young college graduates • Root-setting years matter for longer- run economic development 3 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Most Migrants are Young Who Moves to Oregon? Domestic Net Migration by Age, 2014 • Approx. half of all 12,000 migrants are 20- 10,000 and 30-somethings 8,000 • Factors that 6,000 increase migration: 4,000 • Single, college 2,000 educated, not employed, youth, 0 Children College Root- Peak Peak Late Retirees higher income (0-17) Age Setting Working Earning Career (65+) (18-24) (25-34) (35-44) (45-54) (55-64) Data: American Community Survey | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 4 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Root-Setting Years Matter Oregon Population by Age, 2015 • Most people settle 70,000 down, begin their 60,000 careers in earnest, get married, have 50,000 kids, and buy a 40,000 house 30,000 • Vital for longer run 20,000 Root- economic 10,000 Setting development, as Years 0 once settled, people 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 much less likely to Age Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis move 5 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

What Influences Migration Rates? • Factors leading to higher probability of Educated Influx into Oregon Migration Rates to Oregon by Educational migrating: Attainment among 20-39 Year Olds, 2014 5% • Youth • Single 4% • Not employed 3% • Lower income 2% • Higher educational 1% attainment 0% • 1 in 4 migrants to All Other STEM+ Oregon are in their HS or Less Some College Graduate College 20s or 30s and hold Data: Net domestic + international migrants divided by resident population at least a Bachelor’s Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 6 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

STEM+ Trends in Oregon 7

Majority of Migrants are STEM+ • Young U.S. college Young Migrants in Oregon graduate Net Migration, 20-39 Year Olds, Bachelor's or Higher population is 52% STEM+, 48% All STEM+ Degrees All Other Degrees Other 100% • Since 2009, 55% of 75% Oregon’s net migrants hold 50% STEM+ degrees 25% • Oregon’s mix is well balanced, what makes the 0% state unique is the 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 strong overall gains STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health Degrees Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 8 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon is a National Leader College Educated Migration by State Migration Rates by Degree Type, 20-39 Year Olds, 2014 2% Oregon ranks 6th best nationally in All Other Degrees Migration Rate migration among all degree types, 12th best among STEM+ degrees DC and 7th best among all other. 1% CO WA ND MA ME OR VT TN TX NV NM SC AZ CA VA KY NY AR MN WV MI NC AL MD NE FL IL LA 0% MT MO IN UT GA HI ID SD WI PA CT OH MS NJ KS DE OK IA NH RI WY AK -1% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% STEM+ Migration Rate Calculation: Net migration by degree type divided by total population 20-39 years old Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 9 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon is a Migration Destination Young Educated Migrants and Oregon • Oregon is a medium 20-39 Years Old, 1 = Largest or Fastest sized state and the All Degrees STEM+ Other local college 1 educated population 6th 7th 8th 12th 12th is too 16th 24th • However migration 26th 28th trends are strong in both the actual number of net 51 migrants, but Resident No. of Net Migration Rate particularly so in Population Migrants migration rates Data: 2014 ACS, All 50 states plus DC, Education Attainment of Bachelor's or More Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 10 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Education and the Labor Market 11

Educated Influx into Oregon • Migrants have higher Educated Influx into Oregon educational Share with Bachelor's or More, 25 Years and Older 50% attainment than the In-migrants overall population 40% • In- and out-migrant Out-migrants 30% attainment is similar, Oregon Population but actual number of 20% in-migrants is larger than out-migrants 10% • Net migration 0% increases Oregon’s 2007 2010 2014 educational Note: Domestic migrants only | Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis attainment 12 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Higher Participation and Employment Rates Educational Attainment and Employment 25-39 Year Old Oregonians, 2014 • Labor force Labor Force Participation Employment-Population 100% participation rates and employment 80% increase with 60% educational 40% attainment 20% 0% Less Than High Some Degree, Degree, HS School College All Others STEM+ Educational Attainment Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 13 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

But What Type of Jobs? What Do Young Oregonians Do? 25-39 Year Olds, 2014 Not Employed Employed in Non-Degree Job Employed in Degree Job • A Degree Job is an 70% individual 60% occupation that 50% requires a 40% Bachelor’s or more for an entry-level 30% hire, per U.S. 20% Bureau of Labor 10% Statistics definitions 0% Less Than High School Some Degree, All Degree, HS College Others STEM+ Educational Attainment Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 14 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Average Wages are Higher Average Wages by Educational Attainment • Research has 25-39 Year Old Oregonians, All Workers (PT and FT), 2014 found that every $70,000 year of additional $60,000 schooling results $50,000 in higher wages $40,000 $30,000 • STEM+ graduates $20,000 earn a premium $10,000 even above other $0 college graduates Less Than High Some Degree, Degree, HS School College All Others STEM+ Educational Attainment Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 15 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Barriers to Increasing Educational Attainment, STEM+ or Otherwise 16

Student Loan Debt • Oregonian student Student Loan Debt as Share of Personal Income loan debt totaled 10% $15.6b in 2014q4 Oregon • Equivalent to 9.3% of 8% statewide total personal income U.S. 6% • Default rate 11.5% • Median state: 11.2% 4% • Worst outcomes for 2% those who don’t graduate yet incur 0% debt burden 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis For More: http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/03/14/education-and-student-debt/ 17 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Demographics College Age Population in Oregon • Overall demographics 18-24 Year Olds flat for college age 450,000 Forecast --> population • Millennials aging 400,000 350,000 • Easy demographic gains are over, must 300,000 rely upon increasing educational 250,000 attainment within stable population 200,000 cohort 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 18 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

State Comparisons 19

Young STEM+ Migration, 2014 Migration of 20- 39 Year Olds with STEM+ Bachelor’s or More, Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old < 0% 0% - .19% .2% - .49% > .5% STEM+: Science, Technology, Engineering, Math plus Business and Health Source: IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Pacific Northwest Migration Migration of 20- 39 Year Olds with Bachelor’s or More, Share of Resident Population 20-39 Years Old All College Educated Migrants STEM+ Degrees All Other Degrees -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% -2% -1% 0% 1% -2% -1% 0% 1% Washington 2nd 3rd 3rd Oregon 6th 12th 7th Idaho 42nd 42nd 36th Montana 45th 47th 29th Alaska 50th 50th 50th 21 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Pacific Northwest Job Type What Young College Educated Northwesterns Do 25-39 Year Olds, Bachelors' or More, 2014 Alaska Idaho Montana Oregon Washington 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Not Non-Degree Degree Job Not Non-Degree Degree Job Employed Job Employed Job All Other Degrees STEM+ Degrees Source: BLS, IPUMS-USA, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis 22 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Metro Comparisons 23

Previous Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Work (Pt 1) • Among largest metros in country, Portland has a below average share of STEM+ degrees and an above average share of all other degrees, among the working age population 24 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2014/12/11/education-migration-and-the-service-class/