Operational Flexibility Study Update Mark Rothleder, Executive - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Market Surveillance Committee Operational Flexibility Study Update Mark Rothleder, Executive Director Market Analysis and Development June 22, 2012

Supply variability and uncertainty will increase while the flexible capability of the fleet is decreases • Flexible requirements increase • Flexible capability reduce 15% 1

Conventional resources will be dispatched to the net load demand curve – High Load Case Load, Wind & Solar Profiles – High Load Case January 2020 46,000 10,000 6,300 MW 13,500 MW 44,000 9,000 in 2 hours in 2 hours 8,000 MW 42,000 in 2 hours 8,000 40,000 Load & Net Load (MW) 7,000 38,000 Wind & Solar (MW) 36,000 6,000 34,000 5,000 32,000 4,000 30,000 28,000 3,000 26,000 2,000 24,000 1,000 22,000 20,000 0 0:00 1:30 3:00 4:30 6:00 7:30 9:00 10:30 12:00 13:30 15:00 16:30 18:00 19:30 21:00 22:30 0:00 Load Net Load Wind Solar 2

Uncertainty range around the net load demand curve – High Load Case Load, Wind & Solar Profiles – High Load Case January 2020 46,000 Required Flexibility Ramp Rate 44,000 42,000 40,000 Load & Net Load (MW) Uncertainty Range 38,000 Wind & Solar (MW) 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Net Load 3

Intra hour need for flexibility and forecast uncertainty Hour-Ahead Schedule MW Generation and Load Following/Flexibility Requirement Hour Ahead Regulation Adjustment Load Following/Flexibility Day Ahead Hour-Ahead Schedule Schedule t Operating Hour 4

The assessment of a balancing authority’s control performance is based on three components • Control Performance Standard (CPS1) - measures the control performance of a BA's by comparing how well its ACE performs in conjunction with the frequency error of the Interconnection • Balancing Authority Ace Limit (BAAL) - is a real-time measure of Area Control Area and system frequency which cannot exceed predefined limits for more than 30-minutes • Disturbance Control Standard (DCS) - is the responsibility of the BA following a disturbance to recover its ACE to zero if its ACE just prior to the disturbance was greater than zero or to its pre-disturbance level if ACE was less than zero - within 15 minutes Control Performance Rating Pass is when CPS1 ≥ 100%; BAAL Limit ≤ 30 minutes & DCS = 100% 5

Control Performance Standard Scores (CPS1) Scores January 2009 through April 2012 CPS 1 Scores – January 2009 through April 2012 200 190 Began operating to BAAL 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 Percent (%) 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 CPS1 6

Study process quantifies operational requirements and evaluates fleets ability to meet operating requirements. Statistical Develop Production Analysis/ simulation Profiles model Variable Flexibility Resource Requirements Shortages Renewable Wind / Solar Portfolios ( Regulation , Infrastructure and Load Balancing ) Needs Profiles Costs, Emissions Import/Export Capacity Factor 7

33% scenarios in 2020 cover range renewable and load conditions. Case Case Title Description 1 33% Trajectory Based on contracted activity 2 Environmental Constrained High distributed solar 3 Cost Constrained Low cost (wind, out of state) 4 Time Constrained Fast development (out-of-state) 5 20% Trajectory For comparison 6 33% Trajectory High Load Higher load growth and/or energy program under-performance 7 33% Trajectory Low Load Lower load growth and/or energy program over-performance 8

Potential need for 4,600MW of upward flexible resources observed in the high-load scenario using deterministic production simulation. Generic Upward Capacity Needs to Meet Observed A/S Load Following Shortages 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Capacity (MW) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Trajectory, Environmental, Cost, 2020 LTPP Operational Case 2020 LTPP Operational Case 2018 Sensitivity Risk of Retirement Time Constraint Cases (10% (5,500 MW) Higher Load) (3,173 MW Local Capacity Case (1-in-2 year load, 5,688 MW of Resources) incremental DR, 5,145 MW of Energy Efficiency) Local Capacity Needs (Based on LCR Studies of OTC Retirement) System Neeeds 9

A few hours of potential shortages of downward flexibility were observed using deterministic production simulation Note 1: Downward balancing may be more effectively and efficiently managed using curtailment or storage rather than less economic dispatch of flexible resources to higher level to maintain downward flexibility. Note 2: High volume of net exports observed that require further review 10

Large quantity of net export observed in the cases need to be reviewed. Import Export 11

CAISO Proposed Approach Determine Need Based on Probability of Shortage Previous Deterministic Methodology Loads, gen. Step 1: Calculate Step 2: Test for profiles, imports, hourly flexibility Need violations in PLEXOS etc. reserve requirement Proposed Stochastic Methodology Loads, gen. Step 1: Calculate Step 2: Develop base Capacity profiles, imports, hourly flexibility system need using Need etc. reserve requirement LOLP Step 3: Test for flexibility within base Flexibility Need portfolio 12

Step 2: Benchmark LOLP Performance Initial Benchmark Initial Trajectory Case Portfolio Portfolio Add resources to meet Add resources to meet 17% PRM 17% PRM (if needed) (if needed) Calibrate Model to All-Gas Define LOLE benchmark Calculate Trajectory TPRM TPRM = 17% based on TPRM Step 2 Trajectory Step 2 All-Gas Portfolio Portfolio [= Peak Load * [= Peak Load * (1+TPRM)] (1+TPRM)] Step 2 Step 2 Portfolio To Portfolio To Step 3 Step 3 13

Preliminary LOLE Results without Load Following, Regulation, and 3% Operating Reserve using 1-in-2 Year Load* 1.4 All Gas 1.2 Trajectory (Small PV NQC = 0%) Trajectory (Small PV NQC = 45%) 1.0 1 in 10 Range Annual LOLE 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% Reserve Margin • Note: Trajectory 1-in-2 year load adjusted up by 10% to account for underperformance of demand programs. LOLE Analysis Performed by E3 14

Preliminary LOLE Results with Load Following, Regulation, and 3% Operating Reserve using 1-in-2 Year Load* 10.0 9.0 All Gas 8.0 Trajectory (Small PV NQC = 0%) 7.0 Trajectory (Small PV NQC = 45%) 1 in 10 Range 6.0 Annual LOLE 5.0 4.0 3.0 Incorporating Regulation and 2.0 LFU increases LOLE to 5.2 hours per year at 17% PRM 1.0 for All-Gas Case 0.0 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23% 25% 27% 29% Reserve Margin • Note: Trajectory 1-in-2 year load adjusted up by 10% to account for underperformance of demand programs. LOLE Analysis Performed by E3 15

Next Steps • Complete stochastic analysis to determine probability of flexibility shortage and potential needs • Review potential for over generation condition • Evaluate alternatives to meet observed shortages 16