One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent Wolfgang Cramer Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) & Institut für Geoökologie, Universität Potsdam 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
One way to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Wolfgang Cramer Erdsystemanalyse, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Institut für Geoökologie, Universität Potsdam 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent • Assessment or research? • Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios • Global vs. regional • From a conceptual framework to factual findings • Key findings of the MA 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent • Assessment or research? • Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios • Global vs. regional • From a conceptual framework to factual findings • Key findings of the MA 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Assessm ent or research? Assessment: • Concern for possible damage (early observations of damage or recognised risks for future) • Assembling knowledge about system behaviour • Identification of (multiple!) forcings • (Intelligent) extrapolation of trends – models (statistical, mechanistic...) – scenarios (multiple!) for expected trends in forcings • Interpretation: valuation and assessment Research: • supplies all of the above with knowledge/ understanding 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Tw o m ajor recent assessm ents: I ntergovernm ental Panel on Clim ate Change ( I PCC) / Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent ( MA) IPCC: • supports UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • main decisions taken by government representatives • line-by-line approval of executive summary MA: • supports UN Conventions on Biodiversity, Wetlands, Desertification etc. • main decisions taken by board • no government approval procedure IPCC & MA: Only scientific results are considered 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Largest assessm ent of the status of Earth’s ecosystem s • Experts and Review Process – Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries – 80-person independent board of review editors – Review comments from 850 experts and governments – Includes information from 33 sub-global assessments • Governance – Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000 – Authorized by governments through 4 conventions (Biodiversity, Climate, Desertification, Wetlands). 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent • Assessment or research? • Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios • Global vs. regional • From a conceptual framework to factual findings • Key findings of the MA 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Ecosystem s and hum an w ell-being • A Framework for Assessment • Current State and Trends (Volume 1) • Scenarios (Volume 2) • Policy Responses (Volume 3) • Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4) • Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision- makers 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Conditions and Trends I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived IV: Synthesis 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Scenarios I: State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios II: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios III: Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent • Assessment or research? • Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios • Global vs. regional • From a conceptual framework to factual findings • Key findings of the MA 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
One w ay to value diversity – the Millennium Ecosystem Assessm ent • Assessment or research? • Conditions/ trends vs. scenarios • Global vs. regional • From a conceptual framework to factual findings • Key findings of the MA 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Ecosystem s and hum an w ell-being • A Framework for Assessment • Current State and Trends (Volume 1) • Scenarios (Volume 2) • Policy Responses (Volume 3) • Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4) • Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision- makers 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Hum an W ell-being 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Ecosystem s and hum an w ell-being • A Framework for Assessment • Conditions and Trends (Volume 1) • Scenarios (Volume 2) • Policy Responses (Volume 3) • Multiscale Assessments (Volume 4) • Our Human Planet: Summary for Decision- makers 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Conditions and Trends I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived IV: Synthesis 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Conditions and Trends I I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches 1. MA Conceptual Framework 2. Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human Well-being 3. Drivers of Ecosystem Change 4. Biodiversity 5. Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well-being 6. Vulnerable Peoples and Places 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Conditions and Trends I I II: An Assessment of Ecosystem Services 7. Fresh Water 8. Food 9. Timber, Fuel, and Fiber 10. New Products and Industries from Biodiversity 11. Biodiversity Regulation of Ecosystem Services 12. Nutrient Cycling 13. Climate and Air Quality 14. Human Health: Ecosystem Regulation of Infectious Diseases 15. Waste Processing and Detoxification 16. Regulation of Natural Hazards: Floods and Fires 17. Cultural and Amenity Services 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Conditions and Trends I I I III: An Assessment of Systems from which Ecosystem Services Are Derived 18. Marine Fisheries Systems 19. Coastal Systems 20. Inland Water Systems 21. Forest and Woodland Systems 22. Dryland Systems 23. Island Systems 24. Mountain Systems 25. Polar Systems 26. Cultivated Systems 27. Urban Systems 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Conditions and Trends I V IV: Synthesis 28. Synthesis: Condition and Trends in Systems and Services, Trade-offs for Human Well-being, and Implications for the Future 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Conditions and Trends I I: General Concepts and Analytical Approaches 1. MA Conceptual Framework 2. Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human Well-being 3. Drivers of Ecosystem Change 4. Biodiversity 5. Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well-being 6. Vulnerable Peoples and Places 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Hum an W ell-being • Tools computer modelling, remote sensing, environmental economics... • Data sources and methods are unevenly distributed for different ecosystem services and regions... • Ecosystem responses on different scales including nonlinear responses... 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Interacting scales in biosphere dynamics global biogeochemistry Biosphere disturbance and succession storms, fire evolution Ecosystems carbon allocation geographical and growth distribution of vegetation types Plants plant seasonality competition for resources plant and ecological strategies metabolism Leaves water- and nutrient budget Cells photosynthesis Molecules Seconds Minutes Hours Years Decades Centuries 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008 From Wolfgang Lucht, PIK
Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Hum an W ell-being • Tools computer modelling, remote sensing, environmental economics... • Data sources and methods are unevenly distributed for different ecosystem services and regions... • Ecosystem responses on different scales including nonlinear responses... • Ecosystem services are only one factor of human well-being analysis of linkage is therefore challenging... 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Hum an W ell-being The analytical approach for this report aims to quantify, to the degree possible, the most important trade-offs within different ecosystems and among ecosystem services as input to weigh societal objectives based on comprehensive analysis of the full suite of ecosystem services. 3 rd Alter-Net Summer School, Peyresq, 12 September 2008
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