Contribution to Millennium Contribution to Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ecosystem Assessment Overview and simulation results Overview and simulation results Y. Hijioka , K. T a ka ha shi a nd T . Ma sui Y. Hijioka , K. T a ka ha shi a nd T . Ma sui Na tiona l Institute for E Na tiona l Institute for E nvironme nta l Studie s nvironme nta l Studie s AIM Inte rna tiona l Workshop, 12- - 13 Ma rc h 2004 13 Ma rc h 2004 AIM Inte rna tiona l Workshop, 12
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Millennium Ecosystem Assessment （ http:// ） （ www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.htm ） http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.htm The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is an international work � program designed to meet the needs of decision makers and the public for scientific information concerning the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being and options for responding to those changes. Review Review The MA focuses on: MA Board MA Board � Board Chai Board Chair � Ecosystem services Assessment Panel Assessment Panel � The consequences of Working Group Chairs Working Group Chairs changes in ecosystems for Global Global Modeling Modeling human well being Support Functions Support Functions Group Group Outreach & Outreach & Director, Administration, Director, Administration, Engagement � The consequences of Engagement Logistics, Data Management Logistics, Data Management changes in ecosystems for other life on earth Chapter Chapter Sub-Global Assessment Sub-Global Assessment Condition Scenarios Response Review Condition Scenarios Response Review Working Group Working Group Editors Editors Global Assessment Working Groups
MA Time line of Activities MA Time line of Activities The first round of peer review for the MA started on January 12 3 rd WG Mtgs and will end on March 2 nd Design 19, 2004 Mtg 2 nd WG Mtgs Board Joint WG Approval Mtg 1 st Design Mtg 1 st WG Mtgs Review WG Mtgs 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Assessment & Synthesis Conceptual Framework Release & UN Launch Report Outreach Release
Contribution to MA Contribution to MA � Contribution to Chap. 9 of Scenario Assessment � Quantification of global long-term scenarios of natural and social environment Harmonization Harmonization � Driving forces, Climate sensitivity AIM models utilized for MA AIM models utilized for MA � AIM/Water Country-wise water-use (withdrawal and consumption), Country- wise renewable water resource, Spatial distribution of water-use and renewable water resources, Basin-wise water stress index � AIM/Agriculture Potential crop productivity of Rice, Wheat and Maize � AIM/Ecosystem SOx, NOx, Land use change, Biomass energy Uncertainty Analysis Uncertainty Analysis
Scenarios of MA Scenarios of MA MA Scenarios Related SRES � Global Orchestration (GO) A1 � Techno Garden (TG) B1+550 � Order from Strength (OS) A2 A2 ➜ B2 � Adapting Mosaic (AM)
Direct/ I ndirect Drivers and Direct/ I ndirect Drivers and Ecosystem Services of MA Scenarios Ecosystem Services of MA Scenarios � Indirect drivers: population, technology, income, .... � Direct drivers: Energy, Emissions, Climate change, Land use, Urbanization, ... � Ecosystem services: Food, Fuel, Freshwater, Water supply, Air quality, ... � Inputs from AIM team: rice, wheat, maize productivity change / freshwater availability, withdrawal, consumption / water stress index / urban population rate / NOx and SOx emissions / biofuel
Regional Classif ication of MA Regional Classif ication of MA M A regi on AI M /Ecosystem regi on OECD-Regions Canada / United States / Japan / Oceania / OECD Europe / Canada / United States / Japan / Oceania / Eastern Europe OECD Europe / Eastern Europe + Baltic Countries FSU not including Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union Belaruss _Ukraine_Moldava / Rest of FSU MENA Nor ther n Af r i ca / M i ddl e East Northern Africa / Middle East Subsaharian Africa Subsaharian Africa Eastern Africa / Southern Africa / Western Africa Latin America Latin America Central America / South America Asia (without Middle East) East Asia / South Asia / South East Asia East Asia / South Asia / South East Asia Rest of the world
AI M/ Water model AI M/ Water model � Country-wise water-use (withdrawal and consumption) � Country-wise renewable water resource � Spatial distribution of water-use and water resource � Water stress index in each river basin Spatial pattern of Sector-wise withdrawal driving forces -Agriculture -Population density -Domestic Driving force -Irrigation density -Industrial -Population -GDP Sector-wise withdrawal under Spatial distribution -Urbanization socio-economic change -Trend of water of withdrawal supply ratio Technology change -Water use efficiency -Agricultural yield River basin boundary Water stress index GCM projection -Temperature -Precipitation -Etc… Current and future Spatial distribution of Input data surface runoff renewable water resource Current climate Estimation -Temperature Renewable water resource (RWR) -Precipitation -Internal RWR -Etc… GIS spatial data -External RWR
Sector- - wise water withdrawal wise water withdrawal Sector Agriculture Domestic Industry Total 500 300 1500 2000 OECD OECD OECD OECD 1250 250 IND. Water [km3/a] 400 DOM. Water [km3/a] AGR. Water [km3/a] TOT. Water [km3/a] 1500 1000 200 OECD 300 750 1000 150 200 100 500 500 100 250 50 0 0 0 0 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 Year Year Year Year 80 50 400 300 S-Africa S-Africa S-Africa S-Afirica 250 AGR. Water [km3/a] IND. Water (km3/a) 40 DOM. Water [km3/a] TOT. Water [km3/a] 60 300 200 30 150 40 200 S.Afric 20 100 20 100 50 10 0 0 0 0 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 Year Year Year Year 3000 350 3500 5000 Asia Asia Asia Asia 300 3000 2500 IND. Water (km3/a) DOM. Water [km3/a] AGR. Water [km3/a] 4000 TOT. Water [km3/a] 250 2500 2000 3000 200 2000 1500 Asia 150 1500 2000 1000 100 1000 1000 500 50 500 0 0 0 0 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 Year Year Year Year GO OS TG AM 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
2000 2100 GO EO Water withdrawal per unit area in 2000 and 2100 - Developing countries: Water demand OS FW density will increase especially under GO and OS. - China & East Europe: Water demand increase under GO because of quite high economic growth rate. - Africa, Middle East & South Asia: Water TG TG demand increase under OS because of quite high population growth rate. 0 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 (mm/year) Water Withdrawal (total) Water Withdrawal (total) AM LL
2000 2100 GO - In general, the order of stress is OS > AM > GO > TG Withdrawal: driven by socio-economic factors Water resource: driven by climate factors General trend of stress index change can be explained by demand side. - ME and N. Africa OS High drought risk ← water demand increase derived from population increase and economic development. Mitigated in TG ← high efficiency of water use. - East Europe High draught risk in GO ← high rate increase of industrial water withdrawal which cannot be compensated with the water use efficiency TG improvement. 1 5 10 1 5 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 ～ 0 20 40 60 80 100 ～ Water Stress I ndex Water Stress I ndex (%) (%) (ratio between total withdrawal (ratio between total withdrawal and renewable water resource) and renewable water resource) AM
AI M/ Agriculture model AI M/ Agriculture model � Spatial estimation of potential crop productivity 0.5 o x 0.5 o spatial resolution Rice, Wheat, Maize, and other 9 crops Temperature, Precipitation, PET, PAR, Soil Crop parameters Threshold temperature Estimation of growing period Normal growing period Photosynthesis path Biomass production rate Normal leaf area index Net biomass production Normal harvest index Soil data Soil constraints Input data Estimation Potential productivity GIS spatial data
Simulation Results Simulation Results (Potential crop productivity) (Potential crop productivity) 0 40 0 OECD L-America FSU -3 -10 Wheat 30 Wheat [%] Wheat [%] Wheat [%] -6 -20 20 -9 -30 -12 10 -40 -15 -50 0 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 Year Year Year 10 120 0 L-America Maize OECD FSU 100 8 -2 Maize [%] 80 Maize [%] Maize [%] 6 -4 60 4 -6 40 2 -8 20 GO OS 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 -10 0 2000 2050 2100 TG AM 2000 2050 2100 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2000 2050 2100 Year Year Year - Generally, the degree of potential productivity change coincides with the speed of temperature increase; OS > GO > AM >TG. Potential productivity will increase in high-latitude regions, and decrease in low-latitude regions. In mid-latitude regions, effect of climate change depends on the variety of crops. - FSU: productivities of wheat and maize increase very rapidly by global warming under any scenarios. - Latin America: As global warming progresses, the potential productivity will decrease. - OECD: the potential productivity of wheat will decrease, while that of maize will increase because of global warming. Generally, the most suitable temperature for maize growth is higher than that for wheat growth.
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