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CLASSIFICATION UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release On The Changing Nature of Air Combat: Real and Simulated Dr Michael Papasimeon Dr Clint Heinze Head Aerospace Simulation, Counsellor Defence

  1. CLASSIFICATION UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release On The Changing Nature of Air Combat: Real and Simulated Dr Michael Papasimeon Dr Clint Heinze Head Aerospace Simulation, Counsellor Defence Science & Experimentation & Wargaming Technology Aerospace Operations Research Australian Defence Staff Joint & Operations Analysis Division Australian High Commission – London

  2. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release 1980 Operational Research Group 1983 Combat Effectiveness Group 1988 Studies Group 1991 Studies and Simulation Group 1998 Air Combat Assessment 2001 Aerospace Operational Analysis 2007 Aerospace Capability Assessment 2013 Simulation Experimentation and Wargaming

  3. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

  4. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

  5. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

  6. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

  7. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

  8. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

  9. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

  10. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Air Combat Constructive Simulation  Operational Analysis in support of: – TTPs & CONOPS evaluation and assessment – Acquisitions – System upgrades  Monte-Carlo Simulation  Statistical Measures of Effectiveness – Lethality, Survivability, Exchange Ratios etc  Very large parameter space

  11. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release History PACAUS, SWARMM, dGAME, Battlemodel, ARTEMIS ACE

  12. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Five Generations of Air Combat Simulations PAC AUS SWARMM Battle Model

  13. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Air Combat Simulation Deployed Applications Within Visual Range (WVR) Air Combat Constructive Simulation. FORTRAN 77. PACAUS Late 80s – 100,000+ LOC. Mid 90s Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Air Combat Constructive Simulation. SWARMM FORTRAN 77 + dMARS Intelligent BDI Agents (AAII). Split between physical models and reasoning models. 1990s Distributed, component based architecture with intelligent wrapping. Designed for automated integration of legacy components. dGAME dMARS, C++, CORBA. Late 1990s Object oriented simulation framework written in C++ (and dMARS). BattleModel Designed for integrating legacy components for AEW&C acquisition. Late 1990s – Brought about changes in software engineering culture. 2000s BattleModel variant for future air combat analysis (F-35A JSF). Hybrid object and agent oriented architecture C++ and JACK (Java). ARTEMIS First introduction of team oriented agent programming constructs. 2000s

  14. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Fighter Computational Modelling PILOT RWR DATALINK EW RADAR RADIO PLATFORM RCS IRS CM WEAPONS

  15. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Computational Models of Fighter Systems Computational Fluid Dynamics Water Tunnel Wind Tunnel E3 Counter Measures IRS RCS Sensor Measurement IRS Modelling RCS Modelling Measurement Models DUEL GEMM MECA PK Modelling DUEL 3D

  16. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Simulation Supporting Air Combat Acquisitions Complex Multi-Billion $AUD Acquisitions Supported by Operations Research Simulation F/A-18F EA-18G F-35A Integrating Components Sourced Across DSTO Built on Foundation of 20 Year R&D Program DSTO Analysts Air Combat Domain Knowledge Software Engineering of Air Combat Simulation Technology Research into Autonomous & Intelligent Agents and Artificial Intelligence for modelling fighter pilot decision making DSTO SME extending back over 20 years.

  17. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Modelling Tactics and Situational Awareness Observe (situation awareness) Orient (situation assessment) Decide (course of action) Reasoning Act (tactics) So (Sci) ACG Exercises Architecture Beliefs Desires Intentions  plans Agent F/A-18 PAX MANTACSIM Architecture

  18. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Beliefs, Desires and Intentions (BDI) Model  Internal mental attitudes of a rational BDI agent (or an agent’s mental state)  Beliefs: what the pilot believes about the world, itself and other agents (informational)  Desires: What the agents what to achieve (motivational)  Intentions: how the agents tries to achieves its desires (deliberational)

  19. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Rational Agency and BDI  Folk Psychology – Daniel Dennet  Rational Agency – Michael Bratman  Formal Logical Framework – Rao and Georgeff  Specific BDI Programming Languages – PRS, dMARS, JACK, Co-JACK, JAM, GORITE etc.

  20. TODD GIL DAVID DAVID CLINT UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release MANSELL TIDHAR MORELY KINNY HEINZE Planning Under Organisation Semantics of Fundamentals of Modelling Intention Uncertainty Oriented Systems: Actions, Agents Agent Computation Recognition for Artificial PhD Studies Theory and and Environments Theory: Semantics Intelligent Agent Intelligence Practice Systems Research MICHAEL SUSANNAH RAYMOND DON SAMIN EMMA Cognitive PAPASIMEON SOON SO PERUGINI KARIM NORLING Sciences Modelling Multi-Agent Situation Agents for Logistics: Acquiring Plans Modelling Human Agent-Environment Coordination: Awareness in a Provisional Within Resource Behaviour with Interactions in A Graph Based Software Agents: Agreement Bounded Agents BDI Agents Multi-Agent Approach to Theory & Practice Approach Simulations with Intention Computer Affordances Recognition Science Intelligent Multi-Agent Programming Situation Teams Knowledge Software Simulation Agents Systems Languages Awareness OODA and C3 Autonomy Engineering Engineering Architectures Programming Languages Methods and Models Simulation Frameworks OODA Cognitive Work Analysis JACK-UML extensions SWARMM BattleModel “ The Four-Box Model ” AOSE PRS Intention Oriented Analysis and Design AgentSpeak SimpleTeams Naturalistic Decision Making HAVE ARTEMIS dMARS-R JACKTeams Recognition Primed Decisions dMARS-C2 OKRA

  21. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Integration BRAWLER

  22. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release External Engagement 2013 Air Operations Simulation Centre BRAWLER Statistical Analysis of Simulation Data AOSC Statistical Consulting Centre Department of Mathematics & Statistics Brawler Team USAF/A9 @ The Pentagon Integrated OR Experimentation Analytics Air Combat Constructive Simulation AESA Radar Modelling Analysis Methodology EW Modelling Electronic Warfare Modelling General Computational Modelling Vacation Students Next-Gen AESA Model Weapon Systems & CM Data Mining Flight Systems Branch AESA Air Combat Simulation WSD Interaction & NSID: Tim Coombs Visualisation AMIEL John Whitrow WAMUG AD: Maria Vukovic POC: Russell Connell GPU Sensor Modelling POC: Kevin McDonald Mike Spataro JOAD: Josef Zuk Lyndon Benke

  23. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Example: Air Combat Analytical Capability Client Program Analysis F-111 F/A-18A+ F/A-18F EA-18G F-35A Domain S&T Capability Exercises Knowledge DSTO Tools Development MERLIN In-House M&S Staff Training & Australian Tools External Tools Capability Subject Matter Experts Enabling Research Situation Artificial Cognitive Computer Multi-agent Awareness Intelligence Science Science Systems Teams and C2 Simulation

  24. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Analyst Workflow  The goal is to support the analyst across the entire air combat study workflow… Scenario Simulation Analysis Reporting Setup Execution

  25. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Sample Chart: Engagement Outcome Map

  26. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Future Challenges in Modelling & Simulation New Capabilities & Contested Situational Parallel Computing Environments Awareness and HPC Big Data Analysis & Integrated Trusted Computational Autonomy Statistics Operations Research

  27. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Human In The Loop Air Combat Simulation Exercise Coalition Operations Virtual Flag Research Simulation Technology Human Sciences Research Research Training Research

  28. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release Autonomy and Aerospace Operations Research Intelligent Agents in Constructive Simulation UAVs / RPVs Autonomous Weapons of Air Operations Blue, Red & White Force Airborne C4ISREW Autonomous CGFs Automation Automation

  29. UNCLASSIFIED: Approved for Public Release

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