October 2008 Commissioned by: Research conducted by: 21 st Century - PDF document

October 2008

Commissioned by: Research conducted by: 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 2

A key moment for change DC now has one of the lowest percentages of children (20 percent) among large U.S. cities. To maintain and accelerate recent overall population growth, DC needs to retain and attract families with children 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 3

Quality schools and more family-friendly housing would lead to a thriving, diverse DC By strategically linking educational investments with affordable housing and neighborhood development policies… DC could potentially attract as many as 20,000 additional students to its public schools by 2015. 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 4

What is possible Alternative Futures — 2015 2000 2006 Current Quality Schools Quality Schools and U.S. Population Trends Attract More Housing Attract More Census Estimate Continue Students Families Total DC Population 571,042 585,459 626,455 626,455 626,455 % under 18 20.1% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% 21.6% # of Children under 18 114,992 114,531 122,551 122,551 135,314 % of Children under 18 in Public Schools 68.5% 63.2% 63.2% 68.5% 68.5% Total DCPS and Public Charter Enrollment 78,806 72,378 77,446 83,986 92,733 Increase in Public School Enrollment — — 5,068 11,608 20,355 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 5

Current trends are unsustainable DC’s current efforts to expand school supply and increase investment cannot continue with declining school enrollment. Total Population Increase 3% Decline in Children under 18 -0.4% Decline in Public School Enrollment -8% Net Increase in 24% Number of Schools Total Public School Spending (Operating and Capita 59% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Percentage Change from 2000 to 20 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 6

Reversing the trend Quality Schools and Healthy Neighborhoods study: • Analyzes how quality school options and affordable housing can retain and attract families to live in DC • Provides roadmap for coordinated planning, policy, and funding for public education, housing, and neighborhood development to make DC more family-friendly 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 7

About the study The study is unique because it: • Looks at ALL public schools — DCPS and public charters — as one system. • Links neighborhood characteristics to student and school information. Study includes: Research Report , Policy Report , and Data Appendices 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 8

Analysis of public school “supply” — school quality indicators School Quality Indicators (2006-07) Resources Results Risks Funding per student Students basic & above Students living in high- in READING poverty neighborhoods Educational program Students proficient & Students eligible for Teacher quality/NCLB advanced in READING free/reduced price lunch (elementary only) Student-teacher ratio Students basic & above in MATH Students receiving special Facility condition education services Students proficient & advanced in MATH Students with limited/no English proficiency 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 9

Analysis of public school “demand” — school choice patterns School Demand Indicators (2006-07) Neighborhood Enrollment Student Mobility Connections Three-year enrollment “Early exits” — “Neighborhood capture” — change, 2004-06 students changing to public school students another public school living in attendance Building capacity and in DC before boundaries who attend utilization completing all grades “in-boundary” school offered Distance from student residence to school 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 10

Analysis of neighborhood change — demographic and housing indicators Neighborhood Cluster Attributes Number of births Children in recently sold homes Race or ethnicity of neighborhood residents Poverty rate of neighborhood residents Housing Market Types Hot Market Growth High Priced Weak Market Rising volume of Rising volume of Little sales growth Little sales growth sales sales High prices Lower prices High price Lower prices increases 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 11

Key priorities Analysis identifies two key priorities for DC to achieve its vision for family-friendly neighborhoods: Priority 1: Provide Quality Public Schools and Affordable Housing for All Neighborhoods Priority 2: Offer Quality School Choices in a System that Works for Students and Families 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 12

Priority 1 : Provide quality public schools and affordable housing for all neighborhoods Value: Strong ties between schools and their communities can benefit both children and neighborhoods. Policy proposals: Target educational investments and preserve and increase affordable housing. Why we must act: Analysis reveals that in DC, disparities in school quality — resources, risks, and results — combine with housing patterns to limit both diversity and equity. 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 13

Key Finding Most Neighborhoods Lack High-Quality Public Schools 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 14

Elementary school resources vary among wards Percentage of elementary public schools in each resource category, by ward, 2006-07 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% High-resource schools Moderate-resource schools 50% Low-resource schools 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 D d d d d d d d d I r r r r r r r r W a a a a a a a a W W W W W W W W Y T I C 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 15

There is even greater variation of resources in secondary schools Percentage of secondary public schools in each resource category, by ward, 2006-07 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% High-resource schools 50% Moderate-resource schools Low-resource schools 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 D d d d d d d d d I r r r r r r r r W a a a a a a a a W W W W W W W W Y T I C 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 16

Elementary school results vary among wards Percentage of elementary public schools in each results category, by ward, 2006-07 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% High-results schools Moderate-results schools 50% Low-results schools 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 D d d d d d d d d I r r r r r r r r W a a a a a a a a W W W W W W W W Y T I C 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 17

Secondary school results also vary among wards Percentage of secondary public schools in each results category, by ward, 2006-07 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% High-results schools 50% Moderate-results schools Low-results schools 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 D d d d d d d d d I r r r r r r r r W a a a a a a a a W W W W W W W W Y T I C 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 18

Elementary schools serve students with significantly different risk profiles Percentage of elementary public schools in each risk category, by ward, 2006-07 100% 90% 80% 70% Very-high-risk schools 60% High-risk schools 50% Moderate-risk schools Low-risk schools 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% E 2 3 4 1 5 6 7 8 D d d d d d d d d I r r r r r r r r W a a a a a a a a W W W W W W W W Y T I C 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 19

The great variation in student risk is even more pronounced in secondary schools Percentage of secondary public schools in each risk category, by ward, 2006-07 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Very-high-risk schools High-risk schools 50% Moderate-risk schools Low-risk schools 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 D d d d d d d d d I r r r r r r r r W a a a a a a a a W W W W W W W W Y T I C 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 20

Schools with lower risk have higher results Percentage of elementary schools in each results category, by level of risk, 2006-07 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% High results 50% Moderate results Low results 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Very High High Risk Moderate Low Risk Risk Risk 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 21

Even when risk level is high, schools with higher resources have higher results Percentage of elementary public schools in each category, by two wards with similar levels of risk, 2006-07 In elementary 100% schools in 90% wards 1 and 8, Lower Fewer 80% results resources which have 70% similarly high More Higher 60% High resources results levels of risk, 50% Moderate Low more resources 40% bring better 30% results. 20% 10% 0% Ward 1 — Ward 1 — Ward 8 — Ward 8 — Resources Results Resources Results 21 st Century School Fund • Brookings • Urban Institute 22