NZ’s Tenure Revolution and its Ageing Society - New Zealand’s Renting Revolution - Address to ‘Life when renting’ Mid -term Summit, Tauranga, May 30 Dr Natalie Jackson Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd.
Data sources • Customised Census database 1986- 2013 from Statistics New Zealand • Tenure by age, sex, major ethnic group, territorial authority area (TA) • See handout for grouping of tenure categories over time 2
Main methodological notes • The data are based on the age, sex, ethnic group, territorial authority area of usual residence of each individual in the household, at each census – thus we have data for children – thus our data do not account for people moving between areas, only for people living in the particular area at the particular census 3
The descent of home ownership Total New Zealand 100% 90% 24.8 24.4 29.1 32.6 33.6 36.3 80% 70% 75.2 67.4 60% 12.3 14.6 50% 40% 49.0 63.6 30% 20% 10% 0% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Home Ownership Family Trust Renting Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 4
The descent of home ownership/rise in renting is more dramatic in some places than others Tauranga City 100% 19.5 90% 27.8 33.8 36.7 80% 80.5 70% 66.2 60% 15.7 18.5 50% 40% 44.9 63.3 30% 20% 10% 0% 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2013 Home Ownership Family Trust Renting Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 5
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger) However, Tauranga, WBOP among lowest proportions Percentage 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 Chatham Islands Territory Wairoa District Opotiki District Ruapehu District Gisborne District Porirua City 22 Auckland South Taranaki District Westland District Hamilton City Buller District Waitomo District renting at 65+ years in 2013 Wanganui District South Waikato District Grey District Mackenzie District Lower Hutt City Rotorua District Renting (%) at 65+ years in 2013 Whakatane District Masterton District Napier City Kawerau District Waikato District Hauraki District Hastings District 19 Total New Zealand Far North District Kaipara District Palmerston North City Hurunui District Kaikoura District Christchurch City Carterton District Clutha District Rangitikei District Stratford District Horowhenua District Otorohanga District Tararua District Taupo District Invercargill City Manawatu District Whangarei District 17 Tauranga City Dunedin City Gore District Matamata-Piako District New Plymouth District Central Hawke's Bay District Waipa District Timaru District Upper Hutt City Nelson City Wellington City 16 Marlborough District Waimate District Thames-Coromandel District Waitaki District Ashburton District Southland District 15 Western Bay of Plenty District South Wairarapa District Queenstown-Lakes District Tasman District Waimakariri District Kapiti Coast District Central Otago District Selwyn District 6
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger) Tauranga, Auckland, WBOP among greatest declines Percentage -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Queenstown-Lakes District -44 Home ownership has declined in every TA. Tauranga City Waitomo District Southland District Hamilton City Auckland -39 Western Bay of Plenty District Otorohanga District Ashburton District Hastings District Change in home ownership, all ages, 1986-2013 (%) Stratford District Christchurch City South Taranaki District Opotiki District Taupo District -35 Total New Zealand Napier City Wellington City Thames-Coromandel District Gore District Rotorua District Nelson City Dunedin City Waipa District Kapiti Coast District Clutha District Wanganui District Gisborne District Whangarei District Waimate District Palmerston North City Invercargill City Horowhenua District Lower Hutt City Far North District Whakatane District Waitaki District -30 New Plymouth District Marlborough District Matamata-Piako District Tararua District South Wairarapa District Kaipara District Masterton District Central Otago District Upper Hutt City Manawatu District Timaru District Hauraki District South Waikato District Central Hawke's Bay District Tasman District Kaikoura District Mackenzie District Kawerau District Chatham Islands Territory Waikato District Wairoa District Rangitikei District Ruapehu District Carterton District Waimakariri District Porirua City Westland District Grey District Buller District Hurunui District -15 Selwyn District 7
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger) Percentage Tauranga, WBOP among greatest declines in home -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 10 0 Queenstown-Lakes District Central Otago District Taupo District -36 Western Bay of Plenty District Tauranga City Mackenzie District Stratford District Otorohanga District Change in home ownership at 65+ years, 1986-2013 (%) Southland District Thames-Coromandel District Waitaki District Dunedin City Clutha District Gore District Waitomo District ownership at 65+ years South Taranaki District -31 Auckland Hastings District Ashburton District Wanganui District Opotiki District Central Hawke's Bay District Kaipara District Tasman District -29 Marlborough District Waipa District Ruapehu District Kapiti Coast District Nelson City Invercargill City Westland District -29 Total New Zealand Whangarei District New Plymouth District Whakatane District Manawatu District Grey District Timaru District Tararua District Kaikoura District Hamilton City Far North District Horowhenua District Waimakariri District Matamata-Piako District Rotorua District Buller District South Wairarapa District Christchurch City Masterton District Selwyn District Palmerston North City Napier City Upper Hutt City Waikato District Gisborne District Carterton District Wellington City Waimate District Hauraki District Hurunui District Lower Hutt City Rangitikei District Wairoa District South Waikato District Selwyn District -9 Porirua City KAWERAU District 8
Source: Author/Statistics New Zealand, customised census database, housing tenure 1986-2013 Jackson and Brabyn (forthcoming) Age-selective migration and population ageing.. (14 TAs younger) Tauranga, WBOP among greatest increases in renting Percentage 100 120 140 -20 20 40 60 80 0 Ashburton District Kapiti Coast District South Taranaki District Waimate District Southland District Opotiki District Matamata-Piako District 102 Tauranga City South Wairarapa District Carterton District 91 Western Bay of Plenty District Stratford District Otorohanga District Change in renting, all ages, 1986-2013 (%) Far North District Horowhenua District Nelson City Hauraki District Gore District Invercargill City Christchurch City Waitomo District Waipa District Gisborne District Rotorua District Hamilton City Clutha District Waitaki District Thames-Coromandel District Tararua District Wairoa District 69 Auckland Hastings District Masterton District 65 TOTAL NZ Napier City Kaipara District Wanganui District Waimakariri District Whakatane District Upper Hutt City Buller District Timaru District Grey District Dunedin City 55 Marlborough District Whangarei District Manawatu District New Plymouth District Chatham Islands Territory South Waikato District Westland District Tasman District Kawerau District Wellington City Kaikoura District Lower Hutt City Taupo District Palmerston North City Hurunui District Central Hawke's Bay District Queenstown-Lakes District Rangitikei District Waikato District Mackenzie District Ruapehu District Porirua City Selwyn District Central Otago District 9
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