North Island Presentation 4 September 2009 Richard Paling - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Freight Movements in the Upper North Island Presentation 4 September 2009 Richard Paling Consulting

Freight • Key driver supporting economic growth • Planning and management of freight • Good information • Role of NFDS • Current patterns • Likely future position Richard Paling Consulting

General Approach • Top down or bottom up • Commodity based approach • Need to understand current movements • Sources of information – Included retail and couriers • Road, rail and coastal shipping main focus Richard Paling Consulting

General Approach - Forecasting • Individual commodity forecasts • Range of sources of information • Recognition of environmental impacts • Modal splits • Prediction of corridor movements Richard Paling Consulting

Key National Findings Richard Paling Consulting

National Findings • Commodities identified cover about 70 per cent of overall totals – 152 million tonnes and 18 billion tonne-kms Richard Paling Consulting

Modal Split by Commodity 2006-07 Mode Shares for Selected Commotities P e 100% r 90% c 80% e 70% n 60% t 50% o 40% f 30% 20% t o 10% t 0% a Aggregate Liquid milk Dairy products Manufactured timber products Logs and chips Livestock (all by road) Horticultural products Meat Petroleum products Coal Aluminium and steel Concrete (all by road) Limestone, fertiliser, cement and other minerals l Road Rail Coastal Shipping Richard Paling Consulting

Summary of Regional Patterns Total tonnes (millions) in 2006-07 Selected Commodities only Patterns of movements for selected commodities 2006-07 (million tonnes) Taranaki/ Tasman/ Waikato/ Gisborne/ Northland/ Manawatu- Nelson/ Otago/ Bay of Hawke’s Canterbury Total Auckland Wanganui/ Marlborough/ Southland Plenty Bay Wellington West Coast Northland/ Auckland 33.3 3.5 0.5 1.6 0.4 0.9 0.7 40.7 Waikato/Bay of 7.1 32.6 0.8 1.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 42.2 Plenty Gisborne/ Hawke’s 0.2 0.3 7.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 Bay Taranaki/ Manawatu- Wanganui/ 0.3 0.7 0.4 17.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.1 Wellington Tasman/Nelson/ Marlborough/ West 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.1 3.7 0.2 12.4 Coast Canterbury 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 15.0 1.1 17.5 Otago/Southland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 11.6 12.5 Total 41.3 37.2 8.7 22.2 9.0 20.6 13.6 152.7 • High flows for internal movements • High level of interaction within “Golden Triangle” • Flows from north North Island and Canterbury to south Richard Paling Consulting

Forecasts for Future • Overall growth to 2031 (25 years) is 70-75 % – Between TERNZ and MOT forecasts • Growth for rail and coastal shipping picking up broad trends identified – Recognises ETS but no specific intervention from Government – Growth for rail of about 70 % – Growth for coastal shipping of up to about 100% • Both of these challenging but both less than GPS targets since imply broadly constant modal splits Richard Paling Consulting

Forecast Growth of Freight Movements Total Freight Lifted (million tonnes) 300.0 Retail and Couriers Other Metals & Minerals 250.0 Limestone Fertiliser Cement, & Concrete 200.0 Petroleum Million tonnes Coal 150.0 Aggregate Horticulture 100.0 Livestock & Meat Logs & Wood Products 50.0 Milk and Dairy Products 0.0 2006 2011 2016 2031 Year Richard Paling Consulting

Total Flows Originiating in Region (m tonnes) Forecast 60.0 Origins of Traffic 50.0 Growth in 40.0 Traffic by 30.0 20.0 Region 10.0 0.0 d d o y e y i u n h t y o d k s n n t t n a r g n t o g a n a a a u a r B a t u a a k e o n w g o b l l t l o h k i l b s a n C r O h a P a r e t c e r t W s n i o r u a l t t u f i k l o T a b s n o G e o A w N M l e a W S y r W a C a a H M B / n a m s a T Total Flows Terminating in Region (m tonnes) 70.00 2006-07 2031 Destinations of Traffic 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 West Coast Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki Manawatu Wellington Tasman/ Marlborough Canterbury Otago Southland Richard Paling Consulting 2006-07 2031

The Position for the Upper North Island Richard Paling Consulting

The UNI Position - 1 • NFDS database • Three types of movements – Internal flows within each of the regions – Flows between the regions – Movements to and from other regions • Modal splits Richard Paling Consulting

The UNI Position - 2 Breakdown of UNI Traffic by Type (million tonnes in 2006-07) 12.6 27.8 85.7 Intra Regional Inter regional To/from other regions Richard Paling Consulting

Movements within Regions in 2006-07 25.00 M i 20.00 l l i 15.00 o n 10.00 T o n n 5.00 e s 0.00 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers Richard Paling Consulting

Patterns of Inter-Regional Flows to/from Auckland 2006-07 (tonnes) • Importance of movements to/from Waikato and Northland • Longer distance flows also important – Auckland as manufacturing and national distribution hub – Consumer of goods Richard Paling Consulting

Movements to/from Auckland - 1 ( tonnes) Freight Movements by Corridor to/from Auckland for Identified Commodities 2006-07 (million tonnes) 8.00 Million tonnes in 2006-07 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Northland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers Richard Paling Consulting

Movements to/from Auckland 2 tonne-kms Freight Movements by Corridor to/from Auckland for Identified Commodities 2006-07 (billion tonne-kms) 2.50 2.00 Tonne-kms (Billions) 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers Richard Paling Consulting

Current Modal Splits by Corridor Auckland 1 Modal Splits in Key Corridors to and from Auckland 2006-07 (Rail and Coastal Shipping as per cent of total tonnages) 60.0% % by Rail or Coastal Ship 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% d o e y i h l l k a a n t n a t a a u t n a r B o n k o o o l T a h i S i b s a g t e r s r W a e k o i G T r w r N e / a P t H n O I B l a t o T Rail 2006-07 Coastal Ship 2006-07 Richard Paling Consulting

Patterns of flows to / from Waikato • Strong links with Auckland and BOP (the Golden Triangle) • Limited linkages further south Richard Paling Consulting

Movements to and from Waikato Traffic to/from Waikato for Key Commodities Corridors and Commodities 9.00 8.00 Million tonnes in 2006-07 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 Auckland/Northland BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers Richard Paling Consulting

Future Growth to 2031 Richard Paling Consulting

The UNI Position – Change to 2031 17.8 12.6 57.2 27.8 136.8 85.7 Growth Intra-Reg 60% Intra Regional Inter regional To/from other regions Inter-Reg 106% To/From Outside 41% Richard Paling Consulting

Future Growth in Auckland – 1 • Forecasts of future growth to 2031 – Based on Business as usual assumptions Total Growth in Freight Flows by Corridor (billion tonne-kms) Corridor 2006-07 2031 Total Growth Northland 0.81 2.16 168% Auckland 0.77 1.02 32% Waikato 1.41 3.37 139% BOP/Gisborne 0.68 0.95 40% Hawkes Bay 0.20 0.30 52% Taranaki 0.12 0.13 16% South 3.25 4.17 28% Total 7.24 12.11 67% Total Interregional 6.47 11.09 72% Richard Paling Consulting

Future Growth in Auckland – 2 Forecast Growth of Internal and Inter-Regional Freight Traffic by Corridor (tonne-kms) 14.00 12.00 Billion tonne-kms 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Northland Auckland Waikato BOP/Gisborne Hawkes Bay Taranaki South Total Total Interregional 2006-07 2031 Richard Paling Consulting

Future Flows by Commodity Traffic to/from Auckland for Key Commodities 2031 Corridors and Commodities (tonne-kms) 9.00 8.00 Million tonnes in 2031 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 d d o e y i h l l k a a n n t n a t a u t n a a a r B o k n o o o l l T h k i a i b s S a g c r t e W s r a e u k o i T r A G w r N e / a P t H n O I B l a t o T Dairy Products Logs and Timber Products Meat and Livestock Horticulture Petroleum Coal Aggregate Limestone, Fertiliser, Cement and Concrete Other Minerals and Metals Retailing and Couriers Richard Paling Consulting