New methods for description and assessment of climate system - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

New methods for description and assessment of climate system changes V.I. Shishlov Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS

Multiregime weather forming process Circulation factors (CF): South-West transfer (SWT), cyclone (C), anticyclone (A), atmospheric Climate forming factors (CFF) fronts movement (AFM). Phenomena (Ph): rain ( S ), snow ( T ), fog (F). Albedo variations (AV): +DA, -DA Warm and moisture advection (WMA), cold advection (CA), cold advection with precipitation (CAP), radiative heating (RH), radiative heating Weather forming regimes (WFR) with night cooling (RHC), equilibrium (Eq), radiative cooling (RC), cooling rain (CR), snowstorm (SS) Overcast VI, rainy VII, cloudy VIII, clear IX, cold Weather classes (WC) X, frosty XI-XV Pressure (P), temperature (T), humidity (E), wind Main meteorological variables matrix direction (WD), solar radiation (SR), radiative balance (RB) Climate portraits, maps Phase portraits, weather maps, climate maps

Information model of the multi-regime weather formation process C SWT CF NWT NT S C T T Ph A NWT - ∆ А S + ∆ А + ∆ А AV RC RC CR WM WFR CAP CAP Eq A Date 20-21 22-23 24 25 26 27 28 29-31 1-5 6-7 8-9 10-11 12 WC VII X XI X XI XII XI VII VI VII X XI XII P, mm 730 740 743 747 748 750 750 720 738 743 738 745 740 T, o C +5+13 +2 -5 -2 -10 -14 -6 +2+4 +3+7 +5 -3 -11 -14 E, % 85 81 80 75 72 75 82 93 80 90 93 73 76 W- S WD N W NW NW NW N S SW SW N NW NW W W ( ) + + = + ( p 1 ) ( p ) ( p 1 ) Ф Ф Ф Ф ( p ) , , , , X X L X 1 i j k where Lj(p+1) is the operator of transformation of regime and characteristics of the state of the system in the p+1 stage + k n ∑ = Z ( k , n ) X ( p ) The integral estimator Z of the meteorological parameter X , where p =1,2,3… = p k

Technique for com parative analysis of evolutionary trajectories Fig. Changes of the integral estim ation functions of air tem perature. Evolutionary trajectories are pass through singular points, which correspond to change from winter to summer. All three trajectories have jogs at warming in the 40s-50s, oscillation at cooling in the 60s, and directional temperature rise with variations, which corresponds to regional warming features in the 80s-90s. Regional changes of the temperature regime in Krasnoyarsk at irreversible changes of intersystem relations in ECS after flooding of Krasnoyarsk hydroelectric power station reservoir were reflected in the evolutional trajectories. Trajectories of Omsk and Krasnoyarsk branched off.

Technique for comparative analysis of transient processes 1030 20 1020 T ( o C) 16 20 1010 12 10 1000 8 0 990 Pressure (GPa) 4 -10 Precipitations (mm) -20 0 1040 24.3.98 31.3.98 07.4.98 14.4.98 21.4.98 28.4.98 05.5.98 12.5.98 19.5.98 8 1030 T ( o C) 30 6 1020 20 1010 4 10 1000 Pressure (GPa) 0 2 -10 Precipitations (mm) 0 -20 24.3.99 31.3.99 07.4.99 14.4.99 21.4.99 28.4.99 05.5.99 12.5.99 19.5.99 80 m 60 ) c ( h t p e 40 d 1998 w o n S 20 1999 0 24.3.99 31.3.99 07.4.99 14.4.99 21.4.99 28.4.99 05.5.99 12.5.99 19.5.99 Temperature ( • ), atmosphere pressure ( ∆ ) , precipitations (bars) and snow depth in springs of 1998 and 1999. An estimation of climate dynamic properties was done with the use of variation characteristics of meteorological variables such as amplitude, frequency and number of oscillations, positive and negative extreme amplitude, range of amplitudes variability, change rate, duration of winter and summer.

Technique for estimation of tendencies of regional climatic changes in Western Siberia 20 Tw, o C Ts, o C з з з з з з з з з з з од од 10 0 г г г г г г г -10 к к рк к к рк рк рк 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Results of identification of temperature changes for ensemble of climate conditions in Omsk. ( Т s - average temperature for the period from May till September. Т w - average temperature for the period from October till April.): • Variability of conditions has increased; Continentality ( К ) has decreased at preservation of sharply continental conditions ( РК ) • with frosty winter and drough ( З ) in summer; • The tendency of growth of number of warm conditions of the cold period of year with plentiful deposits (cyclogenesis, advection of heat) is established; The number of damp ( Г ) annual conditions with intense water cycle has increased. •

Estimation of changes of ensemble of annual conditions in phase space of estimated characteristics Method of identification of regional climate changes based on the phase portrait analysis 16 Тобольск 2003 1991 • General feature for all 1892 regions - displacement of 15 1990 ensemble of conditions of 1954 2000 1995 last stages since 1978. 14 • Feature of Tobolsk, 1994 2002 13 Khanty-Mansiysk, 1941 Kolpashevo - expansion 1891 12 1890 1992 of area of ensemble of conditions. 11 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 Tw, o C - 1890 - 1930 - 1931 - 1955 - 1988 - 2004 гг .

Technique for estimation of trends of changes by representation of trajectories and climate condition areas Precipitation, mm Temperature, o C

Transformation of area of regional climate conditions 1882 - 1937 T, o C 3 1938 - 1972 1973 - 1988 1989 - 2006 2 1989 1 2001 0 -1 1969 -2 -3 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 AmSW, o C

Oscillation of regional climates of Siberia single directed changes were in all regions. Arrows show directed changes. CS of all regions made a cycle of transition and return to the initial state (1963-1966 yrs). The profile ( Π ) of space distribution of estimation functions was conserved during all transitions. Rate of estimation characteristic change was 56 % per year in Tomsk, 68% in Khanty- Mansijsk. Amplitude of oscillation was 154% . A single cycle of climatic Figure 7. Mapping of an mesoscale processes in the single CS of ensemble of CS states West Siberia.

MATRIX DESCRIPTION OF OBSERVATION SERIES Matrices of monthly characteristics of climate conditions for Kolpashevo YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1969 -31 -30.1 -12.5 -3 4.4 15.3 22.2 12.6 7.2 -1.6 -5.9 -19.3 2002 -11.1 -8.1 -4.5 -3.1 11 16.6 17.3 13.8 8.9 -0.4 -9.9 -23 2006 -33.8 -18.8 -6.7 -5.2 7.2 19.8 19.1 12.4 10.1 -0.8 -9.9 -8.5 Matrices of seasonal characteristics of climate conditions for Omsk Matrix describing sequence of climatic system states This matrix is an empirical model of evolution of climatic system states

METHODICAL GROUNDS FOR MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES • We use a wide set of tools for mathematical analysis in the framework of theory of multiple-step processes, classic theory of matrix series and evaluation of state changes. • Procedure and algorithm for assessment of regional climate variability are based on calculation of norms of matrices of meteorological quantities, as well as evaluation characteristics for their variation for the consequent states. • Procedure for analysis and evaluation of warming trend and transition of climatic system to attractive state is based on calculation of norms of matrices of seasonal temperature deviations from the attractive ones ТХ =lim Т ( р ), Р =1,2,3… for sequence of states and analysis of features of numerical series for characteristics. Warming trend exists when characteristics and norms of matrices of deviations diminish with time. • As evaluation characteristics, we use typical norms of matrix: l - norm Rl and m -norm Jm : N 1 ∑ = = R Yi , J max Yi l m N i = i 1 The problem on trend steadiness evaluation comes to evaluation of convergence of series of matrices of deviations and, correspondingly, numerical series of characteristics R to the vicinity of small parameter ε . lim R(p)= ε at р≥ N*.

Normalized estimate of secular changes of state characteristics T W T SP T S T a T Y R J YEAR T* -7 7 21 6 6 1881 -5.88 -2.93 -2.8 -4.5 -3.28 4.03 -5.88 -3.77 -3.67 -1.53 -2.73 -2.18 2.93 -3.77 1882 -6.83 -2.33 -2.87 -0.73 -2.44 3.19 -6.83 1883 1884 -4.2 -6.83 -3.8 -2.57 -3.6 4.35 -6.83 1885 -3.17 -4.27 -2.97 -4 -2.85 3.60 -4.27 1938 -4.6 -2.2 -1.37 0.5 -1.17 2.17 -4.6 1939 -6.53 -3.83 -2.33 -3.17 -3.22 3.97 -6.53 1940 -8.03 -4.63 -1.23 -1.13 -3.01 3.76 -8.03 -6.6 -7.13 -3.7 -5 -4.86 5.61 -7.13 1941 1942 -9.93 -6.03 -3.63 -2.8 -4.85 5.60 -9.93 1966 -3.37 -1.03 -2.1 -2.23 -1.43 2.18 -3.37 1967 -8.4 -0.63 -2.27 -0.7 -2.25 3.00 -8.4 1968 -5.87 -2.97 -3.37 -3.07 -3.07 3.82 -5.87 1969 -10.5 -5.9 -4.7 -1.77 -4.96 5.71 -10.5 1998 -4.7 -7 -0.83 -3.4 -2.25 3.98 -7 -0.57 -3.51 -1.67 -2.73 -1.37 2.12 -3.51 1999 0.42 -1.9 -1.57 -2.03 -0.52 1.48 -2.03 2000 2001 0.6 -0.27 -2.5 -1 -0.04 1.09 -2.5 2002 -0.27 -1.7 -2.77 -1.17 -0.73 1.48 -2.77 2003 -6.07 -2.03 -3.1 -0.1 -2.08 2.83 -6.07 2004 -0.43 -1.77 -1.8 -0.43 -0.36 1.11 -1.8 2005 -1.9 -2.03 -2.97 0.8 -0.78 1.93 -2.97

Behavior of annual temperature changes Y and norm of seasonal temperature deviation matrices in Kazan’ 8 Y R J 6 4 2 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12