NEEDHAM PUBLIC SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT PROJECTION FY21-FY35 JANUARY 7, 2020
SUMMARY “BEST” RESULTS FY21-FY35 • PreK-12 enrollment is projected to Needham Public Schools PreK-12 Total Enrollment by Level: remain relatively flat, declining only FY20-35 slightly, at a rate of about McKibben Cum Cum Cum Demographics Change Change Change (0.01%)/year (or 0.12% overall), to Dec-19 Best Series 2019-20 2024-25 2034-35 FY20-35 FY20-25 FY25-35 approximately 5,700 pupils by Enrollment September 2034. PreK 72 72 72 - - - Gr K-5 2,586 2,584 2,428 (158) (2) (156) Gr 6-8 1,391 1,399 1,364 (27) 8 (35) Gr 9-12 1,658 1,838 1,836 178 180 (2) PreK-Total 5,707 5,893 5,700 (7) 186 (193)
SUMMARY “BEST” RESULTS FY21-FY35 • Although the long-term trend Needham Public Schools PreK-12 Total Enrollment by Level: continues to be for 'level FY20-35 enrollment,' the short term will McKibben Cum Cum Cum Demographics Change Change Change continue to be characterized by a Dec-19 Best Series 2019-20 2024-25 2034-35 FY20-35 FY20-25 FY25-35 rapid increase in the school Enrollment population, followed by a rapid PreK 72 72 72 - - - decrease in population. Gr K-5 2,586 2,584 2,428 (158) (2) (156) Gr 6-8 1,391 1,399 1,364 (27) 8 (35) Gr 9-12 1,658 1,838 1,836 178 180 (2) PreK-Total 5,707 5,893 5,700 (7) 186 (193)
SUMMARY “BEST” RESULTS FY21-FY35 • Over the next fifteen years, FY19-35 Enrollment Projections by Level Dec '19 (Current) vs Prior Year Projections elementary enrollment is 3000 projected to decline, driven by 2500 the Town’s declining birth rate, Current Gr K-5 2000 Current Gr 6-8 Current Gr 9-12 1500 albeit more rapidly than Prior Gr K-5 1000 Prior Gr 6-8 previously predicted. Middle Prior Gr 9-12 500 and high school enrollment will 0 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 remain strong, as the existing classes of 400+ students cycle through the system.
SUMMARY “BEST” RESULTS FY 2020/21 • The enrollment projection for FY21 is Projected Enrollment 11/2019 11/2019 Inc/(Dec) for an additional 64 students: Vs. Current & Prior Projection FY20 FY21 Ovr Prior Level Inc/(Dec) Preschool 72 72 - Broadmeadow 548 557 9 • Elementary 48 Eliot 412 425 13 Williams 518 533 15 Mitchell 484 481 (3) • Middle (6) Newman 624 638 14 High Rock 499 430 (69) • High 22 Pollard 892 955 63 NHS 1,658 1,680 22 Totals 5,707 5,771 64
SUMMARY “HIGH” RESULTS FY21-FY35 • Separate ‘high’ enrollment projections take possible future development into account. • The high projection includes a prospective 250-unit ‘overlay’ development, which could generate 82 new students between FY26-31. FY19-35 Enrollment Projections Dec '19 (Current) Low - Best - High 6000 5900 5800 5700 5600 Low 5500 Best 5400 High 5300 5200 5100 5000 2019-20 2020-21 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28
BROADMEADOW FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Broadmeadow 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 2018-19 2019-20 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28
ELIOT FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Eliot 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 2018-19 2019-20 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28
WILLIAMS FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Sunita Williams 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 2018-19 2019-20 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28
MITCHELL FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Mitchell 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
NEWMAN FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Newman 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
HIGH ROCK FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: High Rock 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
POLLARD FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: Pollard 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
NEEDHAM HIGH FY19-35 Enrollment Projections: NHS 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32 2032-33 2033-34 2034-35
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