Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . NAPA VALLEY GROWTH NAPA VALLEY COLLEGE January 21, 2016 THE GROUND BENEATH OUR FEET: The Future of the Napa Valley 1 Page 1 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . INTRODUCTION 1972 wine tasting.htm 2 Page 2 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . DEMOGRAPHICS “THE ONLY PEOPLE WHO SEE THE WHOLE PICTURE,” HE MURMURED, “ARE THE ONES WHO STEP OUT OF THE FRAME.” Salman Rushdie – The Ground Beneath Her Feet 3 Page 3 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . DEMOGRAPHICS NAPA HAS GROWN 1990 2015 2040 28% SINCE 1990, Population 111,017 142,301 163,269 BUT WILL ONLY White 80.6% 53.3% 40.9% GROW 15% IN THE Hispanic 14.6% 34.7% 44.2% NEXT 25 YEARS. Asian/Pacific 3.1% 7.4% 9.9% BY 2060, Islanders HISPANICS WILL Multi-Racial N/A 2.2% 3.2% MAKE UP 49% OF Black 1.1% 1.9% 1.5% THE NAPA American POPULATION. 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% Indian WHITES WILL MAKE UP 34%. (Source: State Department of Finance) 4 Page 4 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . DEMOGRAPHICS IN 1990, THERE WERE 1.5 1990 2015 2040 CHILDREN FOR Population 111,017 142,301 163,269 EVERY SENIOR Ages 0-4 6.9% 5.3% 5.3% CITIZEN. BY 2040, Ages 5-17 16.6% 15.8% 14.6% THERE WILL BE Ages 18-24 9.3% 10.0% 8.1% 1.2 SENIORS FOR EVERY CHILD. Ages 25-44 31.4% 24.5% 25.4% Ages 44-64 19.7% 27.1% 23.4% BY 2060, THERE Ages 65 + 16.0% 17.3% 23.2% WILL BE 1.7 SENIORS PER (Source: State Department of Finance) CHILD. 5 Page 5 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . DEMOGRAPHICS IMMIGRATION ACCOUNTS FOR 37% OF ALL POPULATION GROWTH IN NAPA SINCE 1987. (Source: State Department of Finance) 6 Page 6 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . DEMOGRAPHICS Over the last 25 years, the Napa Valley has added: • 30,000 new residents; • 26,000 new homes; • 21,000 new jobs; • 800,000 more tourists annually; and • 230 new wineries. 7 Page 7 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . DEMOGRAPHICS Over the last 25 years, the Napa Valley has added: • 30,000 new residents; • 26,000 new homes; • 21,000 new jobs; • 800,000 more tourists annually; and • 230 new wineries. In the next 25 years, the Napa Valley is expected to add: • 21,000 more residents; • 6,070 new homes; • 18,890 new jobs. • 12,000 new registered vehicles; and • 150 new wineries. 8 Page 8 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . DEMOGRAPHICS Over the last 25 years, the Napa Valley has added: • 30,000 new residents; • 26,000 new homes; • 21,000 new jobs; • 800,000 more tourists annually; and • 230 new wineries. In the next 25 years, the Napa Valley is expected to add: • 21,000 more residents; • 6,070 new homes; • 18,890 new jobs. • 12,000 new registered vehicles; and • 150 new wineries. Growth will create new pressures on water availability, farmland protection, traffic, housing, climate change, and habitat preservation. 9 Page 9 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . HOUSING Pressures are more intense in Napa today than they were in 1990. Currently, the highest quality vineyards are appraised at $400,000 to $500,000/acre. While as farmland, this is incredibly valuable, it does not compare to raw land in the Bay Area that has been designated for development. Walnut Creek (2015): $1 million/acre Dublin (2014): $1 million/acre Fremont (2014): $3 million/acre San Jose (2014): $4 million/acre Peninsula (2014): $5 million/acre 10 Page 10 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . HOUSING BY BAY AREA STANDARDS, NAPA IS AFFORDABLE MEDIAN HOME PRICE COUNTY NOVEMBER - 2015 San Francisco $1,323,860 San Mateo $1,195,000 Marin $1,180,900 Santa Clara $965,000 Contra Costa $758,930 Alameda $736,870 Napa $678,570 Sonoma $541,380 Solano $355,510 (Source: California Association of Realtors) 11 Page 11 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . HOUSING WE HAVE ENOUGH HOMES FOR OUR LOCAL EMPLOYEES Jobs Homes Ratio (Nov - (2015) 2015) American Canyon 9,800 6,072 1.61 Calistoga 2,700 2,320 1.16 Napa 39,700 30,374 1.31 St. Helena 2,800 2,839 0.99 Yountville 1,200 1,291 0.93 Unincorporated 14,000 12,363 1.13 TOTAL 70,200 55,259 1.27 Ideal jobs/housing balance is 1.5 jobs/home We need an additional 12,689 jobs to balance. (Source: State Department of Finance and Employment Development Department) 12 Page 12 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . HOUSING BUT HOMES AREN’T AFFORDABLE FOR THE PEOPLE WHO WORK HERE Nov. 2015 2014 Median Income Median Home Needed Household Price Income American Canyon $458,600 $78,721 $81,955 Calistoga $617,500 $106,014 $52,131 Napa $532,100 $91,349 $64,058 St. Helena $1,048,500 $180,020 $78,421 Yountville $757,500 $130,070 $65,568 Napa County $539,000 $92,547 $70,925 (Assumes 10% down, 4% interest rate, and 30-year loan) (Sources: Zillow.com and US Census) 13 Page 13 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . HOUSING SECOND AND VACATION HOMES TAKE HOMES OUT OF THE INVENTORY Total Occupied Number of Vacant Vacancy Housing Housing Units Rate Units Units American Canyon 6,072 5,741 331 5.5% Calistoga 2,320 2,020 300 12.9% Napa 30,374 28,349 2,025 6.7% St. Helena 2,839 2,455 384 13.5% Yountville 1,291 1,083 208 16.1% Napa County 12,363 9,633 2,730 22.1% Total 55,259 49,281 5,978 10.8% (Sources: Department of Finance) 14 Page 14 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . HOUSING WE NEED TO ADD NEARLY AS MANY HOMES AS CURRENTLY EXIST IN AMERICAN CANYON Number of Number of Housing Housing New Units Units Units (2015) (2040) American Canyon 6,072 7,890 1,818 Calistoga 2,320 2,370 50 Napa 30,374 33,410 3,036 St. Helena 2,839 2,830 0 Yountville 1,291 1,280 0 Napa County 12,363 13,020 657 Total 55,259 60,800 5,551 (Sources: Association of Bay Area Governments) 15 Page 15 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . TOURISM The Winery Definition Ordinance has worked extraordinarily well over the past quarter century, relying on a stable balance of interests. • The County needs agriculture to keep farming profitable and to prevent Napa from being absorbed into the Bay Area metropolitan region. • The Cities need agriculture to attract visitors for their growing hospitality businesses. • Agriculture and the Cities need the County to manage land use development to preserve the rural character that brings people here, and to ensure that growth can be supported. • Agriculture and the County need the Cities to provide hotels and restaurants for visitors and to provide housing and services for employees. 16 Page 16 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . TOURISM HOW BIG IS THE LOCAL ECONOMY? 2014 GDP 2014 RANK METROPOLITAN AREA (billions) POPULATION 207 College Station-Bryan, TX $9.03 242,905 208 Macon, GA $8.96 230,450 209 Lynchburg, VA $8.94 257,835 210 Iowa City, IA $8.88 164,357 211 Sioux City, IA $8.87 168,806 212 Napa, CA $8.81 141,667 213 Yakima, WA $8.76 247,687 214 St. Cloud, MN $8.74 192,418 215 Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV $8.64 260,070 216 Gainesville, GA $8.28 190,761 217 Columbia, MO $8.03 172,717 (Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Office of Management and Budget) 17 Page 17 of 35
Napa Valley College Board of Trustees January 21, 2016, Regular Meeting Agenda Item 9.1 . TOURISM HOW DO WE COMPARE TO OTHER US WINE REGIONS? 2014 2014 METROPOLITAN AREA GDP POPULATION (billions) Santa Rosa (Sonoma), CA $21.2 500,292 Salem (Williamette Valley), OR $12.2 404,026 San Luis Obispo (Paso Robles), CA $11.5 279,083 Kennewick (Columbia Valley), WA $10.2 274,295 Grand Junction (Palisade), CO $4.8 148,255 Napa, CA $8.8 141,667 Ithaca, NY $4.2 104,691 Walla Walla, WA $2.2 63,829 Amador (Plymouth), CA N/A 38,091 Fredericksburg, TX N/A 25,520 (Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Office of Management and Budget, and various) 18 Page 18 of 35
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