Munitions Supply Chain Modelling: A Top-Down Approach Crispin - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Munitions Supply Chain Modelling: A Top-Down Approach Crispin Allard & Louise Carver ‘The Barbican’, East Street, Farnham, Surrey GU9 7TB 01252 738500 www.Advantage-Business.co.uk

Contents of Presentation 1. Project MASS 2. Requirement for Analysis 3. Methodology 4. Illustrative Results 5. Discussion 6. Conclusions

Project MASS MASS = Munitions Acquisition, the Supply Solution Objectives: • Provide munitions at least as effectively as now • Ensure long term security of supply • Do it at lower cost

Current Munitions Supply Chain Production Storage Process Produce Disposed In Theatre Returned Operations Buffer Operations MOD Buffer Operations Stores Stores Main Stores Buffer Buffer Consumed Main Stores Supplier Stores Stores Coupling Receipt Issue Bridge Distribution Finish Other Tier 1 Distribute Suppliers 3 rd Party Training Buffer Buffer Training Training Trg Disposal Stores Suppliers Stores Stores UK Disposal UK Disposal Disposal Returned Consumed

Future MASS Supply Chain? Management Production Storage MASS Process Boundary 3 ROD Suppliers ROD Suppliers rd Party Suppliers Disposed In Theatre Returned Operations Buffer Operations Buffer Operations Main Manufacture Stores Manufacture Stores Produce Stores Consumed Coupling Issue Receipt Bridge Distribution Buffer Buffer Tier 1 Demand Stores Stores Supplier Fulfilment Distribute Stores Buffer Training Training Buffer Training Trg Disposal Stores Stores Stores Manufacture Finish Manufacture UK Disposal UK Disposal Disposal Returned Consumed

Requirement for Analysis • Supply Chain Options vary by: – Process (surge capacity, distribution, storage) – Organisation (outsourcing, management structure) • COEIA requirements: – Compare option effectiveness under varying conditions – Cost the options – Discriminate between the options

Illustrative Options A. Traditional stockpile-based supply system. B. Enhanced surge capacity to reduce stock holding requirement and direct delivery of training munitions. C.Industry Partner takes on responsibility for managing almost all aspects of the supply chain, including procurement from 3rd party suppliers.

Methodology: Key choices • MoE: Demand fulfilment (at the MASS Boundary) • Constant effectiveness • Model demand side as well as supply side – “Meta-scenario” approach: Combinations of operational scenarios over 25 years

COEIA methodology overview Munitions Option definitions: Required for Training • Production/procurement Cost all Activities •Distribution Data Activities •Storage •Disposal Concurrency •Management Risk Constraints Register Supply Chain Supply Chain Cost Cost Activity Profile Activity Profile Activity Supply Chain Profiles Activities Generator Generator Model Model Model Operational Activities Operational Investment Appraisal Effectiveness COEIA OCFs OCFs

COEIA methodology overview A. Generate activity profiles B. Calculate demand profiles C. Determine target stock holdings D. Measure supply chain activities E. Cost the options F. Identify other contributory factors

A. Generate Activity Profiles • Simulate 25 year profile according to frequencies for each size of scenario Size of scenario Example Frequency (25 years) Low Medium High Large Scale 1 2 3 Medium Scale 5 10 15 Small Scale 10 20 30 Exercise 5 5 5 NB: Illustrative numbers • Apply constraints on concurrency and minimum intervals between operations • Apply probabilities for operations continuing (every 6 months)

B. Calculate demand profiles • Add munitions required for each activity in profile • Factor in returns and training needs Demands Boxes Demanded Returns Ops Trg 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Year

Functional components The Supply Chain Model

C. Determine target stock holdings • Run all profiles using maximum holding • Adjust holding and verify 105mm HE No. Boxes Required in Store Option A Option B Option C APF(L) APF(M) APF(H)

D. Measure supply chain activities • Production: – Quantity of munitions produced – Shift patterns • Storage: – Quantities in store – Time in store • Distribution: – Quantities transferred between each pair of nodes • Returns • Disposals

Illustrative Results 1: Shift Profile 7.62mm Ball Shells No. Weeks spent on shift pattern Option A Option B Option C 1 Shift 2 Shifts 2 Shift + WE 3 Shifts

Illustrative Results 2: Stock over time 105mm HE Shell Number in Store 1 20 39 58 77 96 115 134 153 172 191 210 229 248 267 286 Month Option A Option B

Illustrative Results 3: Sensitivity 5.56mm Ball Belted Demands Not Met 7.62mm 1B1T Belted 30mm Round RARDEN 105mm HE 4.5” Round 120mm Shell 155mm L15 Shell Option A Option B Option C Target Holdings Low, Activity Levels High

Discussion: the top down approach • Start by considering key drivers – What is needed to discriminate between options? – How simple can it be? • Consequences of this approach – Emphasis on modelling demand side: “meta-scenario” approach and APG – Generic form of supply chain model

Conclusions • Top-down approach resulted in: – Method that encompassed key factors – Models comprehensive and quick to run • Benefits to project: – Able to evaluate a wide range of options – Able to discriminate between options • Method and models are fit for purpose