Modifying ECQ after April 30, 2020 Decision tool [Work in - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Modifying ECQ after April 30, 2020 Decision tool [Work in progress] As of April 28, 2020

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Proposed decision tool for a modified ECQ 2

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Weighing the trade off between income and health Health Economy a. Sectors of GDP a. R 0 allowed to b. Duration of infection function c. Peak b. People allowed d. Total infected to go out to e. Number of severe and work critical cases c. People who will f. Number of deaths ride public g. Health gains (e.g., transport averted COVID-19 death) 3

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Proposed decision tool for a modified ECQ Establish minimum health standards for the people 1 and employer, and health system capacity Decision based on geographic risk of outbreak 2 Decision based on age and health risks 3 Decision based on essential sectors 4 Decision on the use of public transport 5 4

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Proposed decision tool for a modified ECQ 5

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. II. Decision based on geographic risk of outbreak

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Decision on ECQ and GCQ based on risk of outbreak LGU ECQ recommendation Critical care utilization rate (by region) LGU EPIDEMIC RESPONSE Acceleration - ECQ 1 <30% 30-70% >70% FRAMEWORK extended by 2 weeks. Recognition Deceleration and initiation 2 >30 days Initiation Acceleration - GCQ following age, Preparation Case doubling health, and sector Initiation time (for 7 to 30 restrictions. above 25 Initiation Acceleration days Deceleration cases) Recognition and 3 <7 days Acceleration Acceleration Acceleration preparation - GCQ following age, health, and Source: EpiMetrics, DOH sector restrictions, and if no deterioration in 2 weeks, relax GCQ. 7

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. III. Decision based on age and health risks

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. If ECQ is modified in moderate risk areas, the following are proposed* to reduce the peak PH population allowed to go out Demographic (in millions) restricted from going out Public Total Work Study Buy transpo C1 Age 0 to 20 (school age) 62.0 36.4 0 2.6 32.2 C2 Age 60 and up 99.1 39.8 0 5.9 51.0 C3 Age 21 to 59 with comorbid/risk factors 107.6 74.2 0 3.3 55.5 C4 Age 21 to 59 95.1 36.4 0 5.9 48.7 living with 60 and up C5 Age 21 to 59 102.9 70.9 0 3.2 53.0 living with comorbid C6 All C1 to C5 36.1 25.2 0 1.1 18.7 C7 All C2 to C5 82.4 32.3 0 5.0 42.3 Source: NDHS 2017, LFS 2019, LTO 2019, DOTR 2020, LTFRB 2020, JICA (2015), staff computations 9 *Based on study by the UP COVID-19 Pandemic Response Team.

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. IV. Decision based on essential sectors

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk areas By sector (PSIC) 1 Special analysis: 2 a. Malls b. Construction c. By occupation risk 11

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk area: by industry Consider the following for 100% opening: 1 a. Agriculture, fishery, forestry b. Food manufacturing and its entire supply chain (including ink, packaging, raw materials, etc) c. Food retail (supermarket, market, resto for takeout and delivery only) d. Healthcare (hospitals, clinics, drugstores) e. Logistics f. Water g. Energy h. Internet, telecomms Subject to minimum i. Media health standards 12

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk area: by industry Consider the following for 50 to 100% opening: 2 a. Other manufacturing, like electronics and exports b. E-commerce and delivery for essential and non- essential items c. Repair and maintenance services d. Housing and office services Subject to minimum health standards 13

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk area: by industry Consider the following for 50% on site work and 3 50% work from home: a. Financial services b. BPO c. Other non-leisure wholesale and retail trade d. Other non-leisure services Subject to minimum health standards 14

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Option to modify ECQ in moderate to high risk area: by industry Consider for 100% closure (since the main 4 transmitters are children age 0 to 20): a. Schools (consider late opening) except online learning b. Leisure, amusement, gaming, fitness c. “Kid” industry d. Tourism e. All gatherings, including religious, conferences, etc. f. Malls g. Construction (for further discussion). Subject to minimum health standards 15

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Malls as mini-economy: Proposal on mall operations Malls in PH 3. Impose health standards 1. Allow certain sections of malls to open Region Count a. To avoid lingering, increase aircon a. Supermarkets (10%*) NCR 331 temperature to 26 degrees and b. Drugstores (1%*) CAR 12 remove free wifi c. Banks** I 18 b. In Germany, stores of up to 800 d. Laundry service** II 30 square meters will be allowed to e. Restaurants (10%*) for takeout III 52 open, along with car and bicycle or delivery only IV 121 dealers and bookstores, under f. Hardware** V 50 strict health standards. Proposals 2. Allow only the following to enter VI 66 to revise this to one customer for a. Age 21 to 59 (72% of mall-goers) VII 67 every 100 square meters of store with ID and not looking sickly VIII 12 space have been raised. b. Mandatory temperature check IX 12 c. In Indonesia, disinfectant c. Mandatory wearing of masks chambers in front of some mall X 27 d. Mandatory alcohol use entrances were installed. XI 32 e. Limit the number of people d. Mall operators or employers to XII 18 inside the mall provide masks and gloves to XIII 11 employees. *Represents sector share in 1 mall chain BARMM 6 **Services and nonfood represent 5% each 16 TOTAL 865 Source: News and business reports

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Construction (BBB, infrastructure) Trade off between allowing to operate or remain closed. 1 a. Pro: less traffic, can use this positive externality to speed up BBB b. Con: risk of virus transmission (e.g., most workers are ‘migrants’) 2 Other countries define essential projects in the construction sector, which Philippines can adopt. a. Sewage, water works, health facilities, digital works 3 Selected priority infra projects can be allowed to operate earlier subject to minimum health standards, physical distancing, and barracks for workers. 17

DRAFT. SUBJECT TO CHANGE. Decision to manage the use of public transport