Modelling approach Doses to man and biota Bacteria DCF Mammal - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling approach Doses to man and biota Bacteria DCF Mammal Seaweeds Fish Molluscs Crustacea CF M CF F CF S CF C Ice module Radioactive decay Surface water Advection Radionuclides can be present in three Advection Advection Middepth phases: dissolved, suspended matter Sedimentation water Radioactive decay particles and bottom sediment Freezing and Deep water The structure of the compartments for melting Advection processes surface, mid-depth and deep waters is Bioturbation Pore water diffusion Advection developed with regards to the improved Resuspension description of Polar, Atlantic and Deep waters Sedimentation n Surface sediment in the Arctic Ocean and the Northern Seas Radioactive decay Sedintation and diffusion Burial Diffusion (Karcher & Harms, 2000) and site-specific Mid-deps sediment sediment Deep sediment Burial information for description of the Deep sediment compartments (the 3D NAOSIM model, AWI).

The radiological sensitivity index SI (M) (Iosjpe et al., 2003): where ∆ D is a variation in the collective dose to man during time ∆ T and S is the surface area of the relevant marine region. ∆ D = ( M ) SI ∆ S T

Sensitivity of coastal waters Doses to man after uniform atmospheric fallout 1 kBq/m 2 Cs-137 deposition (1y & 50y) Pu-239 deposition (1y & 100y)

Doses to the Polychaete Worm 1000 Doses to Polychaete worm, µ Gy/h 100 10 Am-241 Ce-144 1 Cm-242 Cm-244 Pu-238 Total 0,1 0,1 1 10 100 Years

Sensitivity indexes for local and global sensitivity analysis for model parameters, correspondingly (Jørgensen, 1994; Till and Meyer, 1983). ( 0 ) S L = dD P ( ) ( 0 ) dP D S(L) and S(G) D = − S G ( ) min 1 D max

1,0 1,5 0,8 1,0 0,6 0,5 0,4 S (L) ( R W ) 0,0 Pu-238, water S (L) (k d ) Pu-238, sediment 0,2 -0,5 0,0 -1,0 Am-241 -0,2 Cm-244 Pu-238 -1,5 Cs-137 -0,4 -2,0 -0,6 0,1 1 10 0,1 1 10 Years Years 1,5 238 Pu concentration in water and sediment 1e+1 Am-241, water Am-241, sediment 1,0 1e+0 (A) surface water (B) surface water (A) bottom water 1e-1 (B) bottom water 0,5 S (L) (SSL) (A) surface sediment (B) surface sediment 1e-2 0,0 1e-3 -0,5 1e-4 -1,0 0,1 1 10 1e-5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Years Years