World modelling with TIAM: first experience 1. ETSAP modelling tools - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences World modelling with TIAM: first experience 1. ETSAP modelling tools 2. TIAM model study 3. Further model usage Greece, 2011

1. ETSAP modelling tools (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) *.RUN *.XLS *.DD *.GDX *.MDB *.XLS *.LST Text *.VD Images … ERI RAS 2

2. TIAM ‐ > input data Fossil fuels supply Data is set by region, types and cost steps for oil, gas and coal Country Pset_PN LimType ACT_BND COST ACT_BND COST ACT_BND COST Description Cset_CN Description (CommGRP) 2005 2005 2050 2050 2100 2100 MINOINOBI1 Oil sands (in situ ‐ ultra hvy) ‐ Located reserves ‐ Oil sands (in situ ‐ ultra CAN OINOBI 49,329.9 2.1 49,329.9 49,329.9 2.0 Step 1 ‐ Nopec hvy) ‐ Nopec MINOINOBI2 Oil sands (in situ ‐ ultra hvy) ‐ Located reserves ‐ Oil sands (in situ ‐ ultra CAN OINOBI 49,329.9 2.2 49,329.9 49,329.9 2.1 Step 2 ‐ Nopec hvy) ‐ Nopec MINOINOBI3 Oil sands (in situ ‐ ultra hvy) ‐ Located reserves ‐ Oil sands (in situ ‐ ultra CAN OINOBI 24,665.0 2.4 24,665.0 24,665.0 2.3 Step 3 ‐ Nopec hvy) ‐ Nopec Heavy oil (ground) ‐ Located reserves ‐ Step 1 ‐ Heavy oil (ground) ‐ CAN MINOINHEA1 OINHEA 19,416.5 2.7 19,416.5 19,416.5 2.5 Nopec Nopec Heavy oil (ground) ‐ Located reserves ‐ Step 3 ‐ Heavy oil (ground) ‐ CAN MINOINHEA3 OINHEA 7,766.6 4.3 7,766.6 7,766.6 4.1 Nopec Nopec MINOINHEA4 Heavy oil (ground) ‐ Reserves growth ‐ Step 1 ‐ Heavy oil (ground) ‐ CAN OINHEA 6,462.2 4.5 6,462.2 6,462.2 4.3 Nopec Nopec … … … … … … … … … … Source: ETSAP ‐ TIAM some details on model and database ERI RAS 3

2. TIAM ‐ > input data World supply curve for gas 400,0 350,0 300,0 $ 2010 / 1000 cubic meters ($/kcm) 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 Trillions (10 12 ) cubic meters ERI RAS 4

2. TIAM ‐ > input data World supply curve for oil 70,0 60,0 $ 2010 / barrel of oil equivalent ($/boe) 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 Billion tonnes of oil equivalent (1000 mtoe) ERI RAS 5

2. TIAM ‐ > input data World supply curve for coal 180 160 140 $ 2010 / tonnes of coal equivalent ($/tce) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0 450,0 500,0 Billion tonnes of coal equivalent (1000 mtce) ERI RAS 6

2. TIAM ‐ > input data Inter ‐ regional connections TimeSlice LimType Attribute Year Curr AllRegions CHI CSA EEU FSU MEA WEU Pset_PN GASNGA AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU GBL IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU MINRNW IMPEXP ACT_COST 2000 CUR 0.0 0.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 AFR 1 ACT_COST 2000 CUR 0.0 0.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 AUS ACT_COST 2000 CUR 0.0 0.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 ACT_COST 2000 CUR 0.0 0.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 CAN 1 UP NCAP_BND 2000 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 CHI 1 UP NCAP_BND 2000 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 UP NCAP_BND 2000 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 CSA UP NCAP_BND 2000 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 EEU 1 UP ACT_BND 2005 1,150.0 1,150.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 UP ACT_BND 2100 1,150.0 1,150.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 FSU 1 1 1 1 1 UP NCAP_BND 2005 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 GBL UP NCAP_BND 2005 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 UP NCAP_BND 2005 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 IND UP NCAP_BND 2005 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 JPN LO NCAP_BND 2010 1,101.9 1,101.9 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 MEA 1 1 NCAP_COST 2000 CUR 7.0 7.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 NCAP_COST 2000 CUR 5.6 5.6 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 MEX NCAP_COST 2000 CUR 6.9 6.9 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 ODA NCAP_COST 2000 CUR 7.3 7.3 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 NCAP_FOM 2000 CUR 0.3 0.3 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 SKO NCAP_FOM 2000 CUR 0.3 0.3 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 USA 1 NCAP_FOM 2000 CUR 0.3 0.3 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 NCAP_FOM 2000 CUR 0.4 0.4 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 WEU NCAP_TLIFE 2000 50.0 50.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 MINRNW NCAP_TLIFE 2000 50.0 50.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 NCAP_TLIFE 2000 50.0 50.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 IMPEXP NCAP_TLIFE 2000 50.0 50.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 PRC_RESID 2000 100.0 100.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 PRC_RESID 2000 8,254.0 8,254.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 PRC_RESID 2000 1,362.3 1,362.3 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 PRC_RESID 2005 100.0 100.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 PRC_RESID 2005 8,254.0 8,254.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 PRC_RESID 2005 1,362.3 1,362.3 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 PRC_RESID 2100 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_CHI_01 PRC_RESID 2100 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 PRC_RESID 2100 0.1 TU_GASNGA_CAC_FSU_01 PRC_RESID 2100 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 PRC_RESID 2100 0.1 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 ANNUAL LO ACT_BND 2000 50.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 ANNUAL LO ACT_BND 2000 4,745.3 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 ANNUAL LO ACT_BND 2000 518.9 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 ANNUAL LO ACT_BND 2005 50.0 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 ANNUAL LO ACT_BND 2005 5,244.9 TU_GASNGA_FSU_WEU_01 ANNUAL LO ACT_BND 2005 946.8 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 ANNUAL LO ACT_BND 2050 0.5 TU_GASNGA_FSU_EEU_01 ANNUAL LO ACT_BND 2050 0.1 TU_GASNGA_FSU_MEA_01 ERI RAS 7

2. TIAM ‐ > input data Inter ‐ regional gas pipeline transport cost, $ 2010/thousand cubic meters New liquefaction projects all over the world: ‐ Time life 50 years; ‐ Liquefaction tariff 244.8 $ 2010/kcm ERI RAS 8

2. TIAM ‐ > base case results TPES, mtoe 35 000 WEU 30 000 USA SKO 25 000 ODA MEX MEA 20 000 JPN IND 15 000 FSU EEU CSA 10 000 CHI CAN AUS 5 000 AFR 0 2005 2007 2012 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 ERI RAS 9

2. TIAM ‐ > base case results World TPES base case results in comparison with IEA WEO 2010 projections Fuel type, mtoe TIAM 2005 IEA stat 2005 TIAM 2020 WEO 2020 TIAM 2030 WEO 2030 Biomass 1,225 1,121 1,665 1,461-1,539 2,305 1,621-2,022 Coal 2,723 3,297 3,743-4,307 3,902 2,714-4,932 2,888 Gas 2,493 2,363 3,306 2,960-3,166 5,405 3,106-3,722 Hydro 251 334 364-383 383 416-483 251 Nuclear* 232 722 222 915-1,003 254 1,040-1,495 Oil 3,504 3,348 4,175-4,443 2,833 3,975-4,826 4,009 Other renewables 21 62 196 239-325 433 384-789 TOTAL 10,450 12,368 14,127-14,896 15,515 14,584-16,941 11,425 * ‐ Nearly 3 ‐ time difference in nuclear energy can be explained by the IEA statistical conversion factor for nuclear energy (33%) ERI RAS 10

2. TIAM ‐ > base case results World TFC demand in comparison with the IEA WEO 2010 projections Sector/fuel type, mtoe TIAM 2005 IEA stat 2005 TIAM 2020 WEO 2020 TIAM 2030 WEO 2030 TFC 7,034 7,878 8,860 9,779 ‐ 10,224 10,883 10,257 ‐ 11,544 Coal 582 665 1,047 997 ‐ 1,072 1,376 904 ‐ 1,123 Oil 2,840 3,420 2,785 3,751 ‐ 3,985 3,058 3,650 ‐ 4,439 Gas 1,154 1,225 2,030 1,486 ‐ 1,565 2,680 1,563 ‐ 1,765 Electricity 1,209 1,293 1,487 1,933 ‐ 2,040 1,873 2,230 ‐ 2,548 Heat 209 268 198 281 ‐ 297 202 262 ‐ 317 Biomass 1,027 986 1,255 1,234 ‐ 1,285 1,604 1,299 ‐ 1,543 Other ren 14 11 59 31 ‐ 46 90 54 ‐ 105 Industry 2,216 2,098 3,385 2,967 ‐ 3,132 4,395 3,076 ‐ 3,512 Coal 478 518 989 811 ‐ 876 1,284 750 ‐ 937 Oil 354 327 312 351 ‐ 380 392 321 ‐ 384 Gas 571 425 1,098 556 ‐ 587 1,578 592 ‐ 658 Electricity 501 532 676 857 ‐ 908 826 971 ‐ 1,115 Heat 85 115 39 128 ‐ 134 21 120 ‐ 141 Biomass 219 177 264 246 ‐ 264 291 276 ‐ 321 Other ren 7 0 5 1 ‐ 1 5 1 ‐ 1 Transport 2,069 2,175 2,286 2,588 ‐ 2,710 2,746 2,770 ‐ 3,182 Coal 4 4 12 ‐ 21 ‐ Oil 2,026 2,060 2,068 2,336 ‐ 2,483 2,196 2,292 ‐ 2,891 Gas 8 70 122 ‐ 225 ‐ Electricity 19 22 23 34 ‐ 38 27 46 ‐ 80 Heat 0 0 0 ‐ 0 ‐ Biomass 12 19 60 107 ‐ 122 277 142 ‐ 283 Other ren 0 0 0 ‐ 0 ‐ Other 2,749 2,884 3,190 4,224 ‐ 4,382 3,742 4,411 ‐ 4,850 Coal 99 114 45 ‐ 71 ‐ Oil 460 489 405 1,064 ‐ 1,123 471 1,037 ‐ 1,163 Gas 574 597 810 ‐ 877 ‐ Electricity 688 739 787 1,038 ‐ 1,097 1,020 1,179 ‐ 1,387 Heat 125 153 159 ‐ 181 ‐ Biomass 796 790 930 881 ‐ 899 1,037 880 ‐ 939 Other ren 7 10 54 ‐ 85 ‐ ERI RAS 11